中国10月份贸易顺差再创纪录

China Surplus Hits Record Despite Export Slowdown

China's latest record monthly trade surplus likely ensures continued debate over trade and currency policies at coming economic summits with its two biggest trading partners, the U.S. and Europe.

中国的最新月度贸易顺差再创纪录，这可能会在与美国和欧盟这两个最大贸易伙伴即将举行的经济高峰会议上再度引发有关贸易及汇率政策的争论。

The record came despite slowing growth in exports and an unexpected pickup in imports from a year earlier. Merchandise exports from China in October rose 22.3% to $107.73 billion, the General Administration of Customs said Monday -- the third straight month that growth has been slower than the first half's 28% pace.

尽管出口增幅出现回落、且进口增幅出乎意料地高于上年同期水平，但中国10月份的贸易顺差仍创出历史纪录。海关总署(General Administration of Customs)周一公布，中国10月份出口额为1077.3亿美元，增长22.3%，是连续第三个月增幅较上半年28%的水平出现回落。

Economists attributed the slowdown to the cumulative impact of currency appreciation -- the Chinese yuan has risen more than 5% against the U.S. dollar so far this year -- and Chinese tax changes that have disadvantaged exports in some industries like paper and metal processing. 'The effect of the nation's macro-control measures in the area of foreign trade has become more apparent,' Customs said in a statement.

经济学家将出口增幅回落归因于人民币升值的累积效应──今年以来，人民币兑美元汇率的升值幅度已超过了5%──而中国出口税制方面的变化也遏制了造纸和金属加工业的出口。海关总署表示，国家在外贸领域的宏观调控措施已进一步显效。

China's imports of goods in October were up 25.5% from a year earlier to $80.67 billion in October, a bigger jump than September's 16.1%, in part because high global commodities prices boosted the bill for imported raw materials. That left a surplus for the month of $27.05 billion, smaller than many economists had expected but still a record, beating the previous monthly high of $26.91 billion, set in June.

中国10月份的进口额为806.7亿美元，比上年同期增长25.5%，大大高于9月份16.1%的增幅，原因之一在于全球商品价格的上涨增加了进口原材料的支出。当月的贸易顺差为270.5亿美元，低于不少经济学家此前的预期，但仍创出历史新高，超出了6月份创下的269.1亿美元这一前月度高点。

Political pressure on China to address the trade gap has been rising steadily this year, and is likely to feature prominently at Beijing's meetings with European leaders later this month, and with U.S. trade and economic officials in early December. Most of China's overall trade surplus is with the U.S. and the EU -- in October, it ran surpluses with those two of $15.4 billion and $13.91 billion, respectively.

要求中国解决巨大贸易顺差的政治压力今年以来不断加大，并可能在本月末中国与欧洲领导人在北京举行的会议上，以及12月初中、美经济贸易官员举行的会议上集中体现出来。中国的贸易顺差主要是在与美国和欧盟的贸易中获得的，10月份中国与美国和欧盟的贸易顺差分别为154亿美元和139.1亿美元。

The rise in the yuan against the dollar tends to make Chinese goods more expensive for U.S. consumers, while making it cheaper for China to buy goods priced in dollars. That should be helping reduce the surplus. But because the dollar has also been falling against currencies such as the euro and the British pound -- often more quickly than against the yuan -- China's exports to other markets aren't feeling the same pressure.

人民币兑美元汇率的上升会令中国商品在美国变得更加昂贵，同时使中国购买以美元计价的商品变得更加便宜。这有助于降低贸易顺差。但由于美元兑欧元和英镑等货币也在贬值，且速度要快于兑人民币贬值的速度，因此中国对其它市场的出口并未感受到同样的压力。

European officials have complained that China's policy is keeping the yuan's value artificially low against the euro, worsening that bilateral trade imbalance. While the U.S. is a major destination for Chinese goods, Europe became China's biggest export market this year, and Chinese exporters have been gaining in emerging nations in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

欧盟官员一直抱怨说，中国采取的政策人为地压低了人民币兑欧元的汇率，加剧了双边的贸易不平衡。尽管美国是中国商品的主要目的地，但欧洲今年已成为中国的最大出口市场，中国出口商对亚洲、非洲和中东等新兴国家的出口也在不断增长。

That has helped keep China's exports expanding quickly this year. Also, many of China's export products are assembled from imported parts. That means any falloff in export orders is usually accompanied by a drop in demand for imports.

这推动了中国出口今年的高速增长。而且，中国的许多出口产品都是用进口零配件组装的。这意味着出口订单的下降通常伴随着进口需求的减少。

That's one reason why economists expect China to continue to run a large trade surplus even if global demand for its products slows. Chinese officials expect the trade surplus for all of 2007 to be about $250 billion, around 40% larger than the $177.47 billion recorded in 2006.

这也是经济学家预计中国即使在全球对其产品需求放缓的情况下也将继续保持巨额贸易顺差的原因。中国官员预计，2007年全年的贸易顺差约为2,500亿美元，比2006年的1,774.7亿美元增长40%左右。

The large surplus has other economic consequences for China, including that it brings huge quantities of money into the local banking system -- a concern for regulators charged with ensuring credit growth does not get out of hand.

庞大的贸易顺差还对中国经济产生了其他影响，包括给国内银行系统带来了大量现金，令监管机构担忧由此带来的信贷增长可能出现失控局面。

Separate figures issued yesterday show that commercial banks extended new local-currency loans of 136.1 billion yuan ($18.4 billion) last month. That's more than usual for October, generally a slow month for business in China. For the first 10 months of the year, total new bank lending is up 17.7% compared with the first 10 months of 2006.

此外，周一发布的另一项数据显示，商业银行10月份当月新增贷款人民币1,361亿元（合184亿美元），高于往年的同期水平。10月份通常是中国商业活动趋缓的一个月。今年前10个月，银行新增贷款比2006年同期增长了17.7%。

Partly to address concerns about lending growth, the central bank on Saturday had already raised the proportion of deposits banks must keep on reserve to 13.5% from 13%, reducing the amount available to lend out.

央行上周六将存款准备金率从13%上调至13.5%，目的之一就是为了解决贷款增长过快问题。