Nobuo Tanaka, the new executive director of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which is funded by the world's leading industrialized consumer nations, said he sees little likelihood the world's spare capacity for oil production will increase notably in the near future, partly because so many oil-rich countries continue to shun outside investors.

国际能源署(International Energy Agency)新任总干事田中伸男(Nobuo Tanaka)说，他认为全球的原油富余生产能力近期内不大可能有显著增长，这在一定程度上是因为有很多石油蕴藏量丰富的国家继续对外部投资者持回避态度。

'The IEA says that despite the high oil price, market tightness will increase from 2009, because new capacity additions won't keep up with reduced capacity from existing fields,' he said.

田中伸男说，国际能源署认为，尽管油价已处于高位，但从2009年起石油市场供应紧张状况还将加剧，原因是新增加的原油生产能力低于现有油田减少的生产能力。

IEA analysts insist that a sufficient resource base exists to supply demand through 2030, but Mr. Tanaka said he isn't confident there will be enough investment, skilled workers and technology to actually get to that oil 'in a timely manner.'

虽然国际能源署的分析师们坚持说，在2030年之前全球的石油需求有充足的资源保障，但田中伸男却表示，是否能有足够多的投资、足够数量的熟练工人以及足够的技术手段将石油资源“及时”开采出来就不敢保证了。

Andrew Gould, the chairman and chief executive of Schlumberger Ltd., an oil-services company, expressed similar concerns, noting that 70% of the oil fields that now quench world demand are more than 30 years old. The growth in global demand since 2003, he said, has been roughly the equivalent of the daily output from two of the world's larger suppliers: the North Sea and Mexico.

石油服务公司Schlumberger Ltd.的董事长兼首席执行长安德鲁•古尔德(Andrew Gould)也有同样的忧虑。他指出，目前开采的油田中有70%投产已超过30年。古尔德说，2003年以来全球原油日需求量增加的量大约相当于北海地区和墨西哥这世界两大原油供应地每天的石油产量。

'Our industry simply cannot cope with these kinds of increases,' Mr. Gould told the assembly. OPEC countries supply about 40% of world production. But that slice is expected to increase in coming years as output decreases in non-OPEC countries such as Mexico and Russia. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest single supplier, is looking to increase production substantially into the next decade.

古尔德在年度能源大会上表示，石油业自身应付不了原油需求量如此迅猛的增长。欧佩克成员国的石油产量目前占世界总产量的40%。但预计这一比例未来几年还会增加，因为墨西哥和俄罗斯等非欧佩克产油国的石油产量将出现下降。作为世界最大的产油国，沙特阿拉伯希望在未来10年中能大幅增加石油产量。

But with oil prices now flirting with $100 a barrel, OPEC officials have been aggressive in batting aside talk that they are to blame. 'The market is increasingly driven by forces beyond OPEC's control, by geopolitical events and the growing influence of financial investors,' said Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamli, the United Arab Emirates' oil minister, who also serves as OPEC's president.

而面对即将突破每桶100美元的油价，欧佩克官员们不得不忙着为自己洗刷责任。担任欧佩克轮值主席的阿联酋石油部长哈姆利(Mohamed bin Dhaen Al Hamli)说，石油市场正日益被欧佩克无法控制的因素、地缘政治事件以及金融投资者日益增大的影响力所驱动。

Mr. Hamli said prices still are 'far below' the all-time inflation-adjusted high of $101 a barrel, set in the spring of 1980 after the 1979 Iranian revolution shocked oil markets. His Qatari counterpart, Mr. al Attiyah, noted that gold prices also have been skyrocketing. 'Why are people concentrating on oil and closing their eyes on gold?' he asked, adding later that he is 'fed up' with people blaming OPEC for fluctuations in oil prices.

他说，油价目前仍“远低于”1980年春创下的每桶101美元（经通货膨胀调整后）的历史最高水平，之前发生的1979年伊朗革命给石油市场造成极大震撼。卡塔尔石油部长阿提亚则指出，黄金价格也在直线上扬。他质问道：“为什么人们只关注石油却对黄金视而不见？”阿提亚随后又表示，他对人们将油价上涨归咎于欧佩克的做法已经“受够了”。

Both ministers said the cartel won't formally consider whether to increase supplies to the world market during a heads-of-state meeting in Saudi Arabia next month. The group agreed last month to add about 500,000 barrels a day to world production, effective Nov. 1.

这两位石油部长都说，欧佩克在下月于沙特举行的成员国首脑会议上将不会正式讨论是否增加石油供应的问题。欧佩克上个月曾决定从11月1日起将日产量增加约50万桶。

A top official at the Energy Department disputed OPEC's claim that supply isn't an immediate challenge. 'We think the market still needs more barrels, as we look toward the next year or so,' said Guy Caruso, an administrator at the department's Energy Information Administration. 'The problem is we don't have cushions,' in terms of spare production capacity and spare crude stocks, he said. 'We have relatively low and declining inventories and a refining sector that's finding it hard to get the crude it needs.'

美国能源部情报署(Energy Information Administration)高级官员盖伊•卡鲁索(Guy Caruso)不同意欧佩克所谓供应问题并非当务之急的说法。他说，展望来年，我们认为市场仍然需要更多的石油供应。卡鲁索认为，问题在于市场缺乏富余产能和富余库存等缓冲因素。他说：我们的库存相对较低且还在不断下降，炼油行业的原油需求难以得到满足。