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Asia Keeps Pressuring Oil Prices亚洲持续给油价加压

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Asia Keeps Pressuring Oil Prices亚洲持续给油价加压

Asia's fast-growing economies have made some progress in addressing their seemingly insatiable demand for oil, but they continue to fall far short of the cuts needed to significantly reduce pressure on global supplies.

高速发展的亚洲经济体对原油的需求似乎永无止境。虽然它们在抑制原油需求方面已取得了一些进展,但要显著降低对全球原油供应的压力,它们所做的努力还远远不够。

Galloping growth in Asia, led by China, was one of the key reasons why global oil prices started shooting up in 2004. China's economy was racing ahead after years of relative global insignificance, ignited by a spurt in new industrial output and a wave of domestic consumption of items, from cars to air conditioners, that pushed energy demand dramatically higher.

亚洲经济在中国引领下的迅猛增长是2004年油价开始上涨的主要原因之一。在此之前,中国经济在世界上处于相对“无足轻重”的地位,但随着工业产值的增加以及从汽车到空调等商品的国内消费量大幅增长,能源需求激增,中国经济也开始快速发展。

Since then, governments in the region have initiated projects to cut back on oil consumption, including boosting factory efficiency, conserving electricity in stores and government offices, and expanding the use of alternative fuels such as ethanol.

自此之后,亚洲各国政府已启动了多项计划以减少原油消耗,包括提高工厂的能源使用效率,在商店和政府办公室开展节电行动,以及扩大乙醇等替代燃料的使用等。

But many of the efforts have been thwarted by faster-than-expected growth and by the reluctance of governments to take unpopular steps to push up the cost of using fuel and rein in demand. Moreover, much of Asia's oil demand is driven by transportation needs, making it difficult to alleviate with alternatives such as coal or nuclear power.

但是,由于经济增长超出预期速度,政府又不愿采取不受欢迎的措施来抬高油价进而抑制需求,所以很多努力都未能达到预期效果。不仅如此,亚洲原油需求的很大一部分来自运输业,很难以煤炭或核电作为替代能源来缓解这一领域的用油压力。

Asian demand for oil is on track to hit 25 million barrels a day this year, an increase of 2.5% from last year, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. World demand is set to rise a more modest 1.5% and may even decline in Europe. (The U.S. -- which is on pace to consume 20.9 million barrels a day this year, up less than 1% from last year -- remains the world's single largest consumer.)

总部位于巴黎的国际能源署(International Energy Agency)称,今年亚洲每日原油需求将很可能达到2,500万桶,较去年增长2.5%。而全球的原油需求增长预计会较为温和,只有1.5%,欧洲的原油需求甚至可能会下降。(今年美国的每日原油需求很可能达到2,090万桶,较去年增长不到1%,但该国仍将是世界第一大原油消费国。)

Crude futures fell $1.04 a barrel, or 1.2%, to $87.56 yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil is up 43% so far this year.

美国商品交易所原油期货价格周一每桶跌1.04美元,至87.56美元,跌幅1.2%。截至目前,油价已较年初上涨了43%。

Several countries, including China and India, continue to subsidize consumer fuel costs and in some cases have cut gas-station prices this year as oil prices have surged. Such moves help shield everyday users from the swings of global oil markets but also discourage them from cutting back when global prices rise.

随着油价的上涨,包括中国和印度在内的一些国家今年继续实施消费者燃油补贴,在有些情况下甚至下调了汽油零售价。这些举措使普通消费者得以免受全球原油市场动荡的影响,但同时也使他们在目前全球油价上涨之际不再努力降低油耗。

The recent decline in the value of the U.S. dollar -- and parallel rise in the value of some Asian currencies -- has also given Asian consumers more power to spend liberally on fuels, because oil is typically priced in dollars and therefore cheaper to buy.

最近美元汇率下跌,而一些亚洲货币又在升值,这也使亚洲消费者消耗燃油时更加无所顾忌。因为石油通常以美元定价,所以现在购买石油更便宜了。

Distorting factors like energy-price subsidies 'have not been conducive to the kind of energy-efficiency improvements that would have been warranted by the run-up in oil prices since the Iraq war,' says Ifzal Ali, chief economist of the Asian Development Bank in Manila. As a result, 'we have not seen a slowdown in the appetite for energy from improved energy efficiencies.'

亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)首席经济学家艾弗兹•阿里(Ifzal Ali)在马尼拉说,正是由于实施了能源价格补贴等干预措施,伊拉克战争以来的油价飙升未能完全起到提高能源使用效率的作用。其结果是,一直未能出现能源利用率提高导致能源需求增速放缓的局面。

Asian governments are also becoming more ambivalent about crop-based alternative fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel, which are made with agricultural commodities, including corn and palm oil. Prices for such crops have soared in recent years, and many governments no longer want to promote fuels that use agricultural commodities because they fear it will cause broader food-price inflation and harm low-income consumers.

亚洲国家政府对用农作物制成替代燃料的态度也开始发生动摇。这些替代燃料用玉米和棕榈油等农产品制成,包括乙醇和生物柴油等。近年来,此类农作物的价格高涨,很多国家政府不想继续推广用农产品制成的燃料,因为它们担心这可能会造成更大范围的食品价格上涨,从而损害低收入消费者的利益。

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