The U.S. economy contracted in the third quarter, setting the stage for a deepening recession and handing Democrats a new political weapon in the days before Tuesday's presidential election.
美国经济第三季度萎缩，这不但使经济衰退的可能性进一步加大，同时也在下周二即将举行的总统大选前为民主党增添了一件新的政治武器。


The nation's output of goods and services shrank at a 0.3% annual rate during the July-September period, as consumers slowed spending. The figure for the nation's gross domestic product was the worst since the 2001 downturn, according to the Commerce Department. Consumer spending, which makes up more than 70% of total economic activity, fell at a 3.1% annual rate in the quarter, the first drop in 17 years and the sharpest decline since 1980.
在7-9月份这一三季度，由于消费开支放缓，美国产品和服务的产出较上年同期下降0.3%。从美国商务部提供的数据看，这是2001年低迷期以来美国国内生产总值(GDP)增长情况最差的一个季度。占经济活动总量逾七成的消费开支第三季度较上年同期下降3.1%，为17年来首次下滑，同时也是1980年以来的最大降幅。


The figures indicate that the steep downturn -- which may be labeled a recession later on by the group of economists that makes such calls -- probably began well before September, when carnage at financial firms spurred a freeze in lending. In coming months, as tighter borrowing terms and higher rates work through the system, employers are expected to slash jobs and consumers are likely to pare spending even more.
这些数据表明，目前这段今后可能被经济学家确定为衰退的严重低迷期可能早在9月份之前就开始了，那个月金融机构接二连三地倒闭，引发了借贷冻结。在未来的几个月中，随着整个金融体系的借贷条款不断收紧、利率继续升高，雇主们预计将大幅裁员，而消费者则很可能进一步紧缩开支。


Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen on Thursday called the recent economic data 'deeply worrisome.' Bracing for a sharp downturn, the Fed this week cut its interest-rate target half a percentage point to 1%. 'For the fourth quarter, it appears likely that the economy is contracting significantly,' Ms. Yellen said.
旧金山联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)行长耶伦(Janet Yellen)周四称，最近的经济数据“令人无比忧虑”。面对急剧恶化的经济形势，美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)本周将基准利率下调50个基点至1%。耶伦说，第四季度经济看起来很可能正在严重萎缩。


Economists expect output in the current quarter to decline more than 3% and continue contracting in the first three months of next year. The unemployment rate, now 6.1%, is likely to top 7% in the coming months and several forecasts show it hitting 8% by the end of next year. The downturn is bad news for nations around the globe that depend on the U.S. market for their exports and on U.S. financial companies for lending.
经济学家们预计，本季度产出将下滑3%以上，明年第一季度还会继续萎缩。失业率目前为6.1%，在未来的几个月中很可能会升至7%，还有个机构预测失业率明年底前将触及8%。对全球各个依靠向美国市场出口产品、或依靠向美国金融公司借贷的国家来说，眼下的经济低迷都是个坏消息。


The weakening economy is a blow to Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain as well as Republican congressional candidates. In the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, 54% of registered voters ranked the economy as their No. 1 concern, outweighing any other issue by three times or more. Among those surveyed, 49% said the Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, would be better at improving the economy, compared with 28% for Sen. McCain.
不断走软的经济对共和党总统候选人麦凯恩(John McCain)和共和党国会候选人来说都是一记重击。在最近一次《华尔街日报》/NBC News民意调查中，有54%的注册选民表示经济是他们最担忧的，比更担忧其他任一问题的选民都高出两倍以上。在被调查者中，有49%的人认为民主党候选人奥巴马(Barack Obama)更善于改善经济，只有28%的人认为麦凯恩在这个问题上更胜一筹。


'The decline in our GDP didn't happen by accident,' Sen. Obama said Thursday. 'It is a direct result of the Bush administration's trickle-down, Wall Street-first, Main Street-last policies that John McCain has embraced for the last eight years and plans to continue for the next four.'
奥巴马周四说，我们GDP的下滑并不是意外，而是布什政府将华尔街金融机构放在第一位、而将普通民众放在最后的政策日积月累导致的直接后果；麦凯恩在过去8年中一直推崇这一政策，而且计划在未来的4年中继续下去。


The McCain campaign tried to turn the economic issue to its advantage, by using it to reinforce the McCain argument that Sen. Obama is a leftist whose policies would deepen the nation's economic woes through higher taxes and spending. Those policies 'will burden the economy and saddle our children with debt,' McCain policy adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin said.
麦凯恩阵营则努力让经济问题为己所用，借以强化麦凯恩的观点：奥巴马是左翼分子，提倡增加税收和开支，他的政策会加剧美国经济问题。麦凯恩的政策顾问道格拉斯•霍尔茨-埃金(Douglas Holtz-Eakin)说，这些政策将加重美国经济的负担，让我们的后代负债累累。


Democrats nationwide are seizing on the economic issue as well, attempting to blame the economic travails on the politically unpopular Bush administration. The news also boosts Democrats' efforts to persuade the Bush administration to back another stimulus package in November, before a new Congress and president take office in January. Democratic lawmakers have been holding congressional hearings on the issue to build support: At a Thursday session, New York Rep. Carolyn Maloney, vice chairwoman of the Joint Economic Committee, called the need for a stimulus 'urgent.'
美国各地的民主党人也在经济问题上大作文章，试图将经济困境归咎于政治上不受欢迎的布什政府。新的国会和总统将于明年1月份就职；民主党一直在努力说服布什政府支持在那之前的11月份出台另一项刺激计划，而第三季度的GDP数据也给民主党人提供了理由。为寻求支持，民主党议员已经召开了好几次再次出台经济刺激计划的国会听证会：在周四的会议上，美国国会联合经济委员会(Joint Economic Committee)副主席、来自纽约州的众议员马隆尼(Carolyn Maloney)说，出台经济刺激计划“刻不容缓”。


Many Democrats want a package that includes government spending on public infrastructure, aid to local governments and greater aid to the unemployed and those on food stamps. Democratic House leaders have been discussing a package that would cost about $150 billion, but some outside economists are urging them to consider twice that amount. Supporters say such a stimulus package is necessary to reduce the depth of the downturn, ease strains on consumers and funnel money to construction firms that employ middle-class workers.
许多民主党人希望政府能出台一项一揽子经济刺激计划，内容包括政府在公共基础设施方面加大支出，向地方政府提供援助，以及增加对失业和领食品券人士的援助。虽然国会众议院的民主党领袖们一直在研究一项规模约1,500亿美元的一揽子计划，但一些外部经济学家却敦促他们考虑将规模增大一倍。支持出台这一经济刺激计划的人士说，要想减轻经济低迷的程度、缓解消费者面临的压力，并向雇佣中产阶级工人的建筑企业提供资金，就有必要制定这个计划。


While the White House has indicated it is open to a second stimulus package, officials have been cool to most Democratic spending proposals. White House economic adviser Edward Lazear said Thursday that the government's $700 billion financial-sector rescue plan is the 'appropriate stimulus right now' because it gets at the cause of the difficulties, not the symptoms, by addressing troubled credit markets.
虽然白宫已表示不反对出台第二个经济刺激计划，但政府官员们却对民主党提出的大多数增加政府开支建议持冷淡态度。白宫经济顾问拉泽尔(Edward Lazear)周四表示，政府的7,000亿美元金融业救助计划目前就足以刺激经济，因为它针对的是陷入困境的信贷市场，是个治本而非仅仅治标之策。


Another stimulus package, if enacted, would have little effect in the current quarter. But proponents say it would help pull the economy out of a recession earlier next year and perhaps mitigate the downturn.
即使再出台一项经济刺激计划，其对第四季度的美国经济也不会产生什么提振作用。但支持推出这一计划的人士说，该计划有助于使美国经济在明年早些时候摆脱衰退，并有可能减轻经济衰退的程度。


With or without stimulus, the credit crisis is expected to take a deepening toll on the economy as consumers are hit by tightening terms for credit cards, auto loans and home mortgages. A sharp retreat in gasoline prices since the summer may remove one major drag on spending heading into the holiday shopping season. But it may be more than offset by the weakening job market, ongoing housing contraction and the downturn in business investment.
无论有没有这项经济刺激计划，当前的信贷危机预计都会重创美国经济，因为信用卡贷款、汽车贷款和住房按揭贷款的放贷标准收紧会打击美国消费者。今夏以来汽油价格的大幅回落有可能为即将到来的假日购物季节消除掉一个影响人们支出的重要不利因素。但就业形势的不断恶化、住房市场的萎缩以及企业投资的低迷却可能足以抵消油价下降产生的积极影响。


Thursday's GDP report showed pervasive economic weakness. Investment on residential structures -- which includes new-home construction, home improvements and some property sales -- tumbled at a 19% pace. Business capital spending declined about 1%, but is expected to drop more in the current quarter as businesses feel the pinch of tighter credit and weak demand. Government spending rose 5.8% but is expected to come under increasing pressure as the economy weakens. Net exports increased, though the global slowdown is already chipping away at this pillar of the U.S. economy.
周四公布的GDP数据显示，美国经济疲软已呈普遍蔓延之势。住宅类投资──包括建造新屋、扩建旧屋以及某些房地产销售方面的投资──大幅下降了19%。虽然第三季度企业资本支出只下降了1%左右，但由于信贷收紧和市场疲弱已使企业感受到了切肤之痛，这一支出预计第四季度会有更大下降。虽然政府支出第三季度增长了5.8%，但由于经济形势恶化，这一支出预计将面临越来越大的压力。第三季度净出口额实现增长，不过全球经济放缓已经在削弱这一美国经济的支柱。


Pinpointing the start of the U.S. recession may take months. One common definition -- two straight quarters of declining economic output -- is likely to be met in the fourth quarter.
也许要几个月之后才能确定下来美国本轮经济衰退始于何时。不过如果用经济产出连续两个季度下滑这一常用指标来衡量，美国经济第四季度或许就将陷入衰退。


The National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee identifies recessions, and hasn't weighed in formally on this downturn. The panel considers GDP, employment and other economic data, and doesn't require two consecutive quarters of declining output. The committee, composed mostly of economists at academic institutions, usually waits months after a recession begins before making its pronouncement.
美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)的商业景气数据委员会负责确定经济衰退的起止时间，但它尚未给本轮经济低迷正式定性。该委员会在确定经济是否衰退时会考虑GDP、就业等经济数据，它并不将产出连续两个季度下滑作为经济衰退的必要条件。该委员会主要由学术机构的经济学家组成，它通常要在经济陷入衰退好几个月后才正式宣布衰退的开始时间。


Employment declines started in January, accelerated in September and are expected to worsen in coming months. The overall economy contracted 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2007, when some economists say the current recession began. That would make this recession the longest since the 1981-82 downturn, which lasted 16 months and sent the unemployment rate to 10.8%. The 2001 and 1990-91 recessions both ran eight months, followed by years of economic fallout. As a result, the recession-dating committee -- after declaring a recession's start -- is unlikely to determine its end until well after the conclusion.
美国就业率从今年1月开始下降，9月份呈现加速之势，预计未来几个月就业形势还将进一步恶化。美国总体经济在2007年第四季度萎缩了0.2%，一些经济学家认为本轮经济衰退就是从去年第四季度开始的。如此算来，当前这场经济衰退将是1981-82年经济陷入低迷以来持续时间最长的一次，那一次的持续时间为16个月，失业率达到了10.8%。而2001年和1990-91年经济衰退的持续时间都是8个月，但衰退造成的后续影响却持续了好几年。其结果是，上述经济衰退日期确定委员会即使宣布了一次衰退的开始时间，可能也要到衰退结束很长时间后才会宣布衰退终止的时间。


A recession is under way, but 'it's too early to talk about the depth of the downturn,' said economist Victor Zarnowitz of the New York-based Conference Board, who serves on the NBER committee. 'Some further credit tightening would tip us over into a more severe recession, but it is too early to tell.'
世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的经济学家扎诺维茨(Victor Zarnowitz)说，虽然美国经济已经步入衰退，但现在谈论经济低迷的严重程度还为时尚早。他说，进一步紧缩信贷有可能将美国推入更严重的衰退，但现在作此判断还为时尚早。