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有人欢喜有人忧:人民币贬值拖累部分企业业绩

来源:华尔街日报 编辑:shaun   可可英语APP下载 |  可可官方微信:ikekenet

China's depreciating currency may be benefiting the nation's export-oriented industries, but other businesses are beginning to feel the pain, with some domestic companies expecting weaker quarterly results because of a cheaper yuan.

人民币贬值可能令中国出口导向型行业受益,但其他行业开始感受到负面影响,中国国内一些企业预计人民币贬值将导致其季度业绩疲软。
The Chinese yuan fell 2.7% in the first quarter against the U.S. dollar, reversing several years of consistent gains, as part of the government's recent efforts to devalue it, a move that has prompted sharp criticism from the U.S.
第一季度人民币兑美元下跌2.7%,扭转了连续几年的升值趋势。这在一定程度上是受到中国政府压低人民币汇率的举措影响,已招致美国的强烈批评。
The yuan's weakness has percolated through to some corporate sectors, including airlines and oil producers, increasing capital and operating costs and boosting the value of foreign-currency debt.
人民币贬值的影响已经渗透到一些公司领域,航空公司、石油生产商等企业的资本和运营成本上升,外币债务的价值增加。
For many companies, the recent moves of the yuan, which was fixed at its weakest level in over seven months on Wednesday, represent a reversal from the outsize foreign-exchange gains firms were reaping as the yuan gained in value.
对很多公司而言,人民币最近的波动逆转了企业因人民币升值而实现的大量汇兑利得。周三人民币中间价被设定在七个多月来的最低水平。

Analysts said sectors with significant foreign currency debt and high import costs or overseas expenses are particularly susceptible to fluctuations in the exchange rate. These include airlines, and real estate and consumer goods.

分析师们表示,拥有巨额外币债务和高进口成本或海外支出的行业尤其容易受到汇率波动的影响。这些行业包括航空业、房地产业和消费品业。
'The reason you are buying U.S. dollars would be because you need to buy some commodity priced in U.S. dollars. For airlines that would be jet fuel and aircraft,' said Patrick Xu, an analyst at Barclays Research. For oil producers, that may be crude oil, which is also denominated in dollars, he said.
巴克莱研究(Barclays Research)的分析师Patrick Xu称,企业购买美元是因为它们需要买一些以美元计价的大宗商品。他表示,对航空公司来说,买美元就是为了购买航空燃油和飞机;对石油生产商来说,买美元可能就是为了购买原油,原油也是以美元计价的。
With a weaker yuan, companies in sectors with high foreign-currency indebtedness are forced to pay back lenders more in foreign-currency terms.
由于人民币贬值,外币债务较多的行业就不得不向贷款机构偿还更多钱。
China Southern Airlines Co. said late Tuesday it expects to post a net loss of between 300 million yuan ($48.2 million) and 350 million yuan for the first quarter, reversing from a 57 million yuan net profit a year earlier.
中国南方航空股份有限公司(China Southern Airlines Co.,ZNH, 简称:南方航空)周二晚间表示,预计第一季度公司将出现人民币3亿元(合4,820万美元)至人民币3.5亿元的净亏损。去年第一季度,该公司实现净利润人民币5,700万元。
The nation's biggest airline by fleet cited a substantial increase in financial costs linked to the yuan's depreciation as the main cause of earnings weakness. Chinese airlines have as much as 80% of their net debt denominated in U.S. dollars to finance aircraft purchases, as well as for jet fuel on international flights.
南方航空表示,与人民币贬值相关的财务成本显著增加,是公司第一季度业绩疲软的主要原因。按飞机数量排名,该公司是中国最大的航空公司。中国航空企业以美元计价的净债务占到总债务的80%左右,主要涉及到给购买飞机融资以及支付国际航班的航空燃油费用。
In 2013, China Southern booked a net foreign-exchange gain of 2.90 billion yuan after the yuan rose 3% against the dollar for the year.
2013年,随着人民币兑美元全年升值3%,南方航空计入了人民币29亿元的净汇兑利得。
On Friday, state-owned oil refiner Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co. said it expected to report the company's first quarterly net loss in over a year on the back of the depreciating yuan, which led to a substantial increase in financial costs for the quarter. Over 90% of the company's crude-oil needs are imported.
上海石油化工股份有限公司(SINOPEC Shanghai Petrochemical Co., 简称:上海石化)上周五称,受人民币贬值影响,该公司预计将公布一年多来的首次季度亏损,人民币贬值大幅推高了第一季度的财务成本。上海石化的原油需求超过90%来自进口。
Meanwhile, Chinese property developers are also vulnerable to the yuan's depreciation, as foreign-currency loans and bonds account for up to 90% of their outstanding debt.
中国房地产开发商也很容易受到人民币贬值的冲击。这类公司中,外币贷款和债务在其债务余额中的占比最高达到90%。
'Unlike their commodity counterparts, property developers also have their revenues in [yuan] and further, most have not hedged their offshore borrowings,' Morgan Stanley analysts said in a recent note.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师在最近的研究报告中称,不同于大宗商品贸易商,房地产开发商还有以人民币计价的收入,而且大多数房企没有对海外借款进行风险对冲。
The investment bank said it expects borrowings across the sector to increase this year.
摩根士丹利预计今年中国房地产行业的借款将增加。
Still, analysts see limited impact of a weaker currency on the various Chinese sectors if the yuan's decline stabilizes near current levels and they aren't expecting an uncontrolled weakening.
不过,分析师预计,如果人民币跌势稳定在当前水平,对中国各行业的影响有限;他们预计人民币不会出现无法控制的下跌。
For example, exchange losses at Chinese state airlines are mostly non-cash, as they are required under accounting rules to value their substantial foreign-currency debts at the end of every quarter.
举例来说,中国国有航空公司的汇兑损失大多是非现金性的,因为会计准则要求它们在每个季度末对大规模外币债务进行估值。
China Southern had net debts of 104.35 billion yuan at the end of last year, while flag carrier Air China Ltd. had 111.60 billion yuan in net debt, of which U.S. dollars accounted for 70%.
截至去年末,南方航空的浄债务为人民币1,043.5亿元;中国国际航空股份有限公司(Air China Ltd., 简称:中国国航)的浄债务规模为人民币1,116亿元,其中美元债务占70%。
'Exchange gains and losses will create some headlines on investor sentiment, but they really don't have cash-flow impact in the medium term so I would encourage people to look at operating profits,' said Mr. Xu at Barclays.
巴克莱的Patrick Xu表示,汇兑损益对投资者人气有一定的影响,但中期内并不会真正影响企业现金流,因此他鼓励大家关注营业利润。
He said without the exchange impact, China Southern's first quarter profit likely reached 1.5 billion yuan, reversing from a 900 million yuan loss a year earlier, thanks to improving passenger demand.
他说,剔除汇兑因素,南方航空第一季度利润可能达到人民币15亿元,扭转了上年同期亏损人民币9亿元的局面,得益于出行需求增加。
Though exporters are likely the biggest winners of the declining home currency, many had also placed wagers on the currency's earlier appreciation, buying up leveraged yuan-derivative products and invested their idle cash in deposits.
尽管出口商很可能成为本币贬值的最大赢家,但很多出口商此前还是押注了人民币早先的升值势头,买入了人民币杠杆衍生品并将闲散现金转为人民币存款。
But as the currency began to depreciate, losses have begun to mount and paper losses were estimated at $2.3 billion on total derivatives contracts valued at $150 billion, in mid-March when one dollar was trading at 6.1781 yuan, according to Geoff Kendrick, head of Asian currencies at Morgan Stanley.
不过,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亚洲汇率业务主管肯德里克(Geoff Kendrick)表示,随着人民币开始贬值,这些投资者的损失开始加大,3月中旬美元兑人民币报6.1781元时,价值1,500亿美元的全部衍生品合约的帐面损失估计在23亿美元。
On Wednesday, the yuan touched 6.2228 against the U.S. dollar and the offshore yuan, traded mainly in Hong Kong, reached 6.2284, after hitting a 14-month high of 6.2311 on Tuesday. A higher number means a weaker currency against the dollar.
周三,美元兑人民币一度触及人民币6.2228元,香港离岸人民币市场,美元报人民币6.2284元,周二一度触及14个月高点人民币6.2284元。
China's central bank set the daily reference rate for its currency at 6.1589 on Wednesday, the weakest level since September 2013. The central bank determines the rate each day, and then allows the currency to trade as much as 1% higher or lower.
中国央行周三将美元/人民币中间价设在人民币6.1589元,创下2013年9月份以来的最低水平。
Since 2005, it has gradually moved the rate up, allowing the yuan to strengthen 33%, but since mid-February this year it has pushed the rate lower, seeking to discourage speculators who have channeled cash into the country in hopes of benefiting from the currency's rise.
2005年以来,中国央行逐步推动人民币走高,人民币累计升值了33%,但自今年2月中旬以来,中国央行开始拉低人民币汇率,希望藉此将投机人士挤出市场。这些投机者此前将大批资金投资人民币市场,希望从人民币升值中获利。

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关键字: 企业 业绩 贬值 人民币

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