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Something odd is going on with Japan’s labour market. Unemployment is at 3.7 per cent. Recently, it has been as low as 3.5 per cent, considered by some economists to be pretty much full employment. (The uptick is only because the previously discouraged are flooding back to work.)
日本劳动力市场正在上演一些奇怪的事情。目前失业率为3.7%。最近，失业率最低曾降至3.5%，一些经济学家认为这几乎称得上完全就业。（失业率上升只是因为以前那些就业意愿丧失者正涌入劳动大军。）
The trend is being helped by demographics, which sees more baby-boomers retiring than millennials starting out. For every 100 people looking, there are 110 jobs on offer, the best ratio in 20 years. In some industries, including truck driving and healthcare, employers cannot find workers for love nor money. Building site foremen are in desperately short supply as construction companies work overtime to rebuild the tsunami-devastated coast and prepare for Tokyo’s 2020 Olympic Games. One restaurant chain specialising in beef-and-rice dishes was forced to close a 10th of its roughly 2,000 restaurants this summer because it could not find enough staff.
人口状况助推了这种趋势，生于婴儿潮时期的退休人员数量现在超过了开始就业的千禧一代。现在每100个求职者有110个工作岗位可选择，这是20年来的最佳比率。在一些行业（包括卡车驾驶和医疗），雇主无论如何都招不到人。建筑工地工头严重短缺，因为建筑公司在加班加点，重建被海啸摧毁的海岸，以及为东京2020年奥运会做准备。今年夏季，由于无法雇到足够多的员工，一家专营牛肉饭的连锁餐厅被迫将其约2000家门店关闭了十分之一。
You would have thought that wage inflation would be going crazy as a result. Unfortunately for Japan, you would be wrong. The government has badgered companies, which are making record profits, to share the love. Some have responded with modest wage increases, but not enough to keep pace with prices, which are rising thanks to monetary stimulus and a 3 percentage-point increase in sales tax.
你原本会认为，薪资因此会疯狂上涨。不幸的是，对于日本而言，你错了。企业正赚着创纪录的利润，日本政府一直追着要求它们分享成果。一些企业适度上调了薪资，但不足以跟上通胀的速度，由于货币刺激以及消费税上调3个百分点，日本物价一直在上涨。
It is just possible that labour-market tightness is finally filtering through. In July cash earnings for regular employees rose a hefty 2.6 per cent, the fastest increase for 17 years. But much of this has come in cash bonuses, not in the base pay that gives workers lasting confidence.
可能劳动力市场的紧张最终在产生影响。今年7月，正式员工的现金收入大增2.6%，为17年来最高。但很多是以现金奖金的形式发放，而非让员工获得长久信心的基本工资。
Japanese wages do not seem to be responding to normal market pressures. Why not? The conundrum has its roots in the altered structure of the labour market. Contrary to common perception, Japan has an exceptionally flexible workforce. Outside the ranks of the protected “job-for-lifers” – a much rarer breed these days – nearly 40 per cent of workers are about as flexible as you get. They work in poorly paid jobs for hourly rates. Benefits are all but non-existent. For most of these workers, sometimes referred to as the “precariat”, unemployment is a mere “sayonara” away.
日本薪资似乎不会对一般的市场压力做出回应。为什么呢？这一难题植根于劳动力市场的结构变化。与普遍看法相反，日本的劳动力大军特别灵活。除了受到保护的终身工作者（这在当今已是相当罕见了），近40%的劳动者都非常灵活。他们从事薪资较低的工作，领取时薪。福利几乎不存在。对于多数此类劳动者（有时被称为无产阶级）而言，失业近在咫尺。
Of course, Japan is hardly alone in seeing the bifurcation of its jobs market. Non- or semi-skilled work commands a lower price in a world where technology and cheap foreign labour are ready substitutes. In Japan, though, this is proving a particularly thorny problem. For its reflationary experiment to work, wages must begin to rise in line with inflation. But the casualisation of the labour force is short-circuiting that process. Moreover, people in the precariat are less likely to marry and have children. If Japan is to solve its demographic problem, it will have to tackle the labour issue.
当然，日本很难说是唯一一个就业市场出现这种两极分化的国家。在技术和外国廉价劳动力随时可充当替补的情况下，从事非技术或半技术工作所能要求的薪资自然较低。然而在日本，事实证明这是一个尤其棘手的问题。要让通货再膨胀发生作用，薪资必须开始与通胀同步上涨。但劳动力中的散工现象正在让这个过程短路。另外，属于无产阶级的人们更不可能结婚和生育子女。如果日本要解决其人口问题，它必须解决这个劳动力问题。
What can be done? At least three things. The first is to narrow the gap between over-protected permanent workers and under-protected non-permanent ones. Akira Kawamoto of Keio University argues that coddling one section of the workforce does not serve Japan’s interests well. Absolute job security stifles risk-taking, he says, something that Japan desperately needs. Simply making life less cushy for permanent workers is not likely to do any good on its own.
日本可以采取何种措施？至少有3项措施。首先是缩窄受到过度保护的固定员工和没有得到充分保护的非固定员工之间的差距。庆应义塾大学(Keio University)的川本明(Akira Kawamoto)指出，娇惯某一部分劳动者不太符合日本的利益。他表示，绝对的就业安全会扼杀冒险行为，而这种冒险是日本现在亟需的。但仅仅让固定员工的生活变得不那么安逸，可能不会带来任何好处。
If adding to Japan’s aggregate demand is the goal, the big push should be on improving the wages and conditions of temporary workers. Crucially, it should be made far easier for them to migrate to permanent jobs and for workers of all descriptions to move more freely between companies. An open, fluid labour market would help cross-fertilise ideas and allocate resources to productive parts of the economy.
如果扩大日本总需求是目标的话，那么日本应大举改善临时工的薪资和工作条件。重要的是，日本应让他们更容易转入固定工作，并让所有类型的员工更自由地在企业间跳槽。一个开放且流动的劳动力市场将有利于催生更多创意，并将资源配置到具有生产效率的经济领域。
Second, immigration policy needs to be bolder. True, allowing in lots of foreign workers might put downward pressure on wages, at least initially. Yet there are some jobs that Japanese are simply not prepared to do. If foreigners were brought in, for example, to provide affordable care for children and the elderly, this could free Japanese women to have more fulfilling careers.
其次，移民政策需要更为大胆。确实，允许大量外国劳动者进入可能会对薪资构成下行压力，至少一开始会如此。然而，有一些工作是日本人不愿意从事的。例如，如果引入外国人为儿童和老人提供价格实惠的看护服务，那么这可能会让日本女性解放出来去从事更有成就感的职业。
That brings us to the third point. Women are flooding into the workforce in unprecedented numbers. Nearly 65 per cent of women aged between 15 and 65 are working, the highest percentage since records began in 1968.
这就要谈到第三项措施。空前数量的女性正涌入劳动大军。近65%的年龄在15岁至65岁之间的女性在工作，为自1968年有记录以来最高。
There is a catch. The majority of these jobs are badly paid, part-time or both. Too many companies still view men as the primary wage earner: younger women are there to look pretty and older women to do the drudgery. If Japan is to progress, such attitudes need to change.
这里存在一个难题。其中大部分工作要么薪资不高，要么为兼职工作，或者两者兼具。太多企业仍然将男人视为主要雇佣劳动者：较为年轻的女性是为了充当“花瓶”，而年纪较大的女性则去做那些脏活累活。如果日本要进步的话，这种态度需要改变。
Legislation can help. One simple measure would be on tax. At present the head of a household, usually male, can claim a dependent tax exemption for his wife so long as she earns less than about $10,000 a year. Neutral tax treatment of second earners would remove this disincentive, encouraging married women to pursue full-time careers. And if the men did not like it, they could always stay at home and look after the kids.
立法可以起到一定帮助。一项简单的措施是税收立法。目前，户主（通常为男性）可以为妻子申请赡养免税，只要妻子的年收入不足1万美元。给予家庭中第二赚钱者中性税收待遇，将消除这种抑制工作积极性的因素，从而鼓励已婚女性从事全职工作。如果男性不喜欢，他们可以呆在家里照顾孩子。
