评论
打印
China’s leaders want to move the world’s second-largest economy away from exports. But, for its steelmakers, this is turning out to be a bumper year.
中国领导人希望让中国这个世界第二大经济体摆脱出口依赖，但对中国的钢材制造商来说，今年注定是一个出口丰收年。
Exports of steel from China were a record 8.52m tonnes last month, an increase of 73 per cent from a year earlier, according to customs data.
海关数据显示，上月中国钢材出口达到创纪录的852万吨，同比增长73%。
Hit by slowing domestic demand, tighter environmental regulations and debt loads that are becoming harder to repay from domestic sales, China’s steelmakers are looking to export their way out of trouble.
由于国内需求放缓、环保法规趋严，加上债务负担沉重——用国内销售产生的收入偿债越来越困难——中国钢铁制造商正寻求通过扩大出口摆脱困境。
But their action could trigger a backlash in the US, which recently approved antidumping measures against South Korea and other producers of steel pipes, as well as in Europe, where a steel industry case was filed in mid-May.
但这种趋势可能引起美国和欧洲的反弹。最近美国批准了针对韩国和其他国家钢管生产商的反倾销措施。今年5月中旬，欧洲也提起了一桩钢铁贸易诉讼。
The industry is “mired in overcapacity”, said China’s customs spokesman Zheng Yusheng at a briefing in Beijing during the release of export data this month. Prices for steel in some parts of China are as low as the price of cabbage.
在中国海关总署本月发布出口数据时举办的北京新闻发布会上，发言人郑跃声表示，国内钢铁行业“存在产能过剩问题”。中国一些地区的钢材价格已跌至白菜价。
Although most of China’s exports are directed towards Asia rather than Europe, there is a knock-on effect on prices and global steel trade flows.
尽管中国钢材主要出口亚洲、而非欧洲，但会对钢价和全球钢铁贸易流动带来连锁反应。
“The US steel industry is facing a very sizeable increase in imports from around the world,” says Kevin Dempsey, senior vice-president of the American Iron and Steel Institute. “We’re seeing some signs of improvement in the US economy and it seems that all of the growth in steel is being taken from imports, including that from China.”
美国钢铁协会(American Iron and Steel Institute)高级副总裁凯文•邓普西(Kevin Dempsey)表示：“美国钢铁业面临的状况时，来自世界各地的进口迅猛增长。美国经济出现了一些改善迹象，但钢铁领域的所有增长似乎都来自进口，这其中就包括来自中国的进口。”
The exports are driven by a state-owned industry focused on output rather than price, says Mr Dempsey. Removing government intervention in the industry “is an important goal that we should be pursuing,” he adds.
邓普西表示，这些国家的出口是由关注产量而非价格的国有企业推动的。他补充称，消除钢铁行业的政府干预“是我们应该追求的重要目标”。
“As the Chinese economy has slowed they are looking to export the steel that they can’t sell domestically and that’s disrupting markets around the world.”
“随着中国经济放缓，他们寻求出口国内卖不掉的钢铁，而这扰乱了全世界的市场。”
This is being reflected in the market place. Global steel prices have fallen 7 per cent since January, according to an index run by London-based metal consultancy CRU. Falling global prices for iron ore, the main ingredient in steel, have also lowered costs for mills and allowed them to sell steel more cheaply. “Chinese exports are at record levels and global steel demand on a regional basis is nothing like record levels,” says Mike Shillaker, managing director of global steel and European miners at Credit Suisse.
这一点已经在市场上得到了体现。伦敦金属咨询机构CRU编制的一个指数显示，国际钢价自今年1月以来下跌7%。国际铁矿石价格不断下跌也降低了钢铁厂的成本，使它们能够以更低的价格销售钢铁。铁矿石是生产钢铁的主要原料。瑞信(Credit Suisse)负责全球钢铁和欧洲矿业公司相关业务的董事总经理迈克尔•希拉克(Michael Shillaker)表示：“中国钢铁出口达到创纪录的水平，而从各地区来看，国际钢铁需求离历史最高水平还远着呢。”
So far US prices have held up relatively well, but if they fall further there could be more vocal complaints about China, Mr Shillaker says. US hot rolled coil prices have fallen 5 per cent since the start of the year, while prices in Europe have dropped 13 per cent. In China they have dropped 17 per cent.
希拉克表示，迄今美国钢材价格相对坚挺，但如果价格进一步下滑，对中国的抱怨声音就会增多。自今年年初以来，美国热轧钢卷价格下跌5%，同时欧洲价格下跌13%。中国价格下跌17%。
Overall the difference between US steel prices and global prices is the widest in more than 40 months, according to data from Bloomberg.
彭博(Bloomberg)的数据显示，整体而言，美国钢价与国际钢价之差是40多个月来最大的。
Macquarie, the investment bank, estimates that US net steel imports rose 66 per cent year on year between January and August, and that has led the industry and unions to press the government for action against a range of countries, such as Mexico and South Korea.
投资银行麦格理(Macquarie)估计，1-8月期间美国钢材净进口量同比增长66%，这导致该国钢铁行业和工会向政府施压，要求对墨西哥和韩国等众多国家采取措施。
The US steel industry has long been politically sensitive and China and US have a colourful history of trade battles over the metal. But a fresh battle lies ahead. The surge in Chinese imports led to the launch this year of several US antidumping investigations, which are expected to climax next month and lead to the imposition of punitive tariffs.
美国钢铁业历来具有政治敏感性，中美在历史上围绕钢铁问题爆发过多次贸易战。如今，一场新的战争爆发在即。来自中国的进口飙升，促使美国在今年展开了数项反倾销调查，预计这些调查将于下月收官，并导致美国征收惩罚性关税。
In May the US Commerce Department issued a preliminary finding that Chinese producers were selling grain-oriented electronic steel in the US below cost. US agencies have also accused Chinese producers of dumping everything from steel wire and rods to “boltless steel shelves” on the US market.
今年5月，美国商务部发布初步调查报告称，中国钢铁生产商在美国以低于成本的价格销售取向电工钢。美国机构还指责中国钢材生产商在美国市场上倾销从钢线和钢棒到“不锈钢钢架”等各类产品。
“The US steel producers are very on the ball when it comes to protecting their domestic market,” says John Kovacs, steel analyst at CRU.
CRU的钢铁分析师约翰•科瓦奇(John Kovacs)表示：“就保护国内市场而言，美国钢铁制造商非常机警。”
Yet Chinese exports are hard to target because they mostly go to the southeast Asian markets or Mexico, from where some of it makes its way to the US, says Colin Hamilton, an analyst at Macquarie. The imports have also displaced steel from Japan and Korea in those regions, he says.
然而，麦格理分析师科林•汉密尔顿(Colin Hamilton)表示，很难针对中国出口钢材采取措施，因为它们大多出口至东南亚市场或墨西哥，然后其中部分钢材再流向美国。他说，在那些地区，来自中国的进口也挤走了日本和韩国钢材。
There are signs that China is taking measures to deal with the overcapacity. It may withdraw the rebate tax given to exports of some steel products, according to Mr Hamilton.
有迹象显示，中国正在采取措施解决产能过剩问题。汉密尔顿表示，中国可能取消针对某些钢材产品实施的出口退税。
That would be a bitter pill to swallow for China’s local governments. Steel mills are required to maintain production because local authorities need to keep cash circulating amid heavy debt loads, according to Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of Beijing-based J Capital Research. The collection of VAT on the sale of the steel is their principal revenue stream, she says.
这将是中国地方政府不得不吞下的一枚苦药。北京美奇金投资咨询公司(J Capital Research)联合创始人杨思安(Anne Stevenson-Yang)指出，钢厂被要求维持生产，因为地方政府需要在沉重的债务负担下维持资金周转。杨思安表示，对钢铁销售征收增值税是他们的一大收入来源。
“Production also keeps other companies in business: it doesn’t really matter if the mills don’t pay them for their coal or ore. If the mines are racking up receivables, those are assets that can finance debt at a bank.”
“钢厂继续生产也让其他公司能够维持运营：如果钢厂购买了煤炭或铁矿石却没有付款，那真的不重要。如果矿业公司有了应收账款，就可以作为向银行申请债务融资的资产。”
