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今年是惠特拉姆去世的一年，同时也是他帮助建立的中澳关系被证明挑战大于机遇的一年。
Gough Whitlam's 1971 visit to China helped build economic ties that have been a boon for Australia. But with China's economy now stumbling, where are we heading? Alan Kohler writes.
高夫·惠特拉姆1971年的中国访问帮助澳大利亚和中国建立了经济纽带，使澳大利亚从中得到了实惠。但是随着中国经济蹒跚前行的现状，我们又将向何去何从？阿兰·科勒写道。
When Gough Whitlam visited China in 1971, its GDP was about a tenth of America's and double Australia's.
This week, according to the IMF, and after three decades of nearly 10 per cent compound growth, China's economy is larger than America's (using an exchange rate based on purchasing power parity). And it's more than 10 times the size of Australia's output.Thanks in part to Whitlam's historic visit, China has been almost entirely responsible for Australia's 23 years of consecutive growth - not far off the Netherlands' world record.But now China has hit the wall. Growth for the September quarter, out this week, was 7.3 per cent, the lowest growth rate since early 2009 and largely due to exports.当惠特拉姆1971年访问中国的时候，那时中国的GDP只有美国的10分之1，只有澳大利亚的2倍。IMF宣布，在经过30年近10%的复合增长之后，中国的经济总量（这其中使用的汇率是基于购买力平价的）将于本周超过美国。这同时也是澳大利亚出口的10倍。部分归功于惠特拉姆的历史性访问，澳大利亚23年的连续增长几乎全部归功于同中国的贸易——距离（打破）荷兰的世界纪录已经不远了。但是现在，中国碰壁了。九月的前3周（不包括本周），中国的增长率是7.3%，这是自2009年来的最低水平，而这主要是因为出口贸易（量的下降）。
China's growth rate seems inexorably headed for sub-7 per cent, which will send as many shockwaves around the world as US interest rates going up.
And this slowdown does not seem to be the intentional act of central planners in the Communist Party trying to engineer a soft landing, as commonly believed.In fact, it's the result of a structural decline in private investment: the sort of vicious cycle that capitalist economies get into when businesses start to fear the future.The private sector in China can see that growth is slowing and are cutting back on investment plans. That's not surprising: the potential return on investment has shrunk dramatically because China's central bank is holding interest rates where they are as growth slows, to control the booming housing market. (Sound familiar?)中国的经济增长似乎不可避免地走向了7%之下，而这一现象将会比美国利率上升在全世界激起更多波澜。并且，不同于普遍的认知，这次的经济增长的下降并不像是GCD中央决策人试图使中国经济软着路而有意为之。事实上这是私人投资结构性下降的结果：这就是当企业开始担心未来的时候，资本主义会走进的那种恶性循环。中国的私营机构可以看到经济增长的放缓，并且正在削减投资计划。这并不奇怪：由于中国央行通过操纵利率（让利率增长缓慢）来控制飞涨的房地产市场，所以潜在的投资回报大幅缩水（听起来很熟悉？）。
更加严重的是，国有企业的那三分之一已经被债务缠身。根据Gavekal Dragonomics这家私人研究机构的调查，中国国有企业的平均负债与收益比为87%。摩拳擦掌的私人部分的负债与收益比从2007年的77%降到了目前的小于60%，所以，如果他们想，他们就可以借钱继续投资。但是由于房地产市场的越来越不稳定，以及GDP的放缓超出政府的预计，他们（私人企业）更倾向于等待。
Fear of a property crash and banking crisis is not only weighing on the Chinese economy by keeping interest rates up and undermining investment, it's also causing concern around the world. For example, Moody's recently warned that a "housing downturn in China could derail the global recovery".
China's GDP growth peaked in 2007 at close to 15 per cent, crashed in 2008 to 6.5 per cent, was boosted by the world's greatest fiscal stimulus back to 12 per cent, and has sagged back to the mid 7's and has more or less stayed there ever since.
Of course China's economy is much bigger now: 7 per cent growth in 1971 (which is what it was) was worth an extra $US6.9 billion in output; today it's more than $700 billion extra.Moreover, unless there is a catastrophic banking crisis (not impossible), economic growth is unlikely to crash given the strength of domestic consumption and exports.But the microeconomic reforms needed to free up the private sector and boost investment are not happening, partly because president Xi Jinping's administration is so focused on stamping out corruption.The astounding success of the e-commerce firm, Alibaba, makes it seem like there's a wave of entrepreneurial success going on, and there has apparently been a surge in the number of new companies being registered in China, but that's not yet showing up in the private investment data.出于对房地产崩盘和金融危机的恐惧，（其他国家）持续增加汇率且削减投资，中国经济从而受到拖累。而这也引起了世界范围的关注。比如穆迪近日就曾经警告说“中国房市的低迷有可能破坏全球经济复苏（的进程）”。
中国GDP增长于2007年达到峰值的15%，于2008年降至最低的6.5%。然后（中国的GDP）被世界上最大的财政刺激措施提振回到了12%，且自此以后下降并保持在7.5%左右。当然，中国经济目前的体量比当年大多了：1971年的7%的增长（中国曾经的GDP增长率）相当于增加了69亿美元，而如今7%的增长则相当于增加了7千亿美元。另外，考虑到中国国内消费和出口的实力，除非出现了灾难性的金融危机（并非不可能），否则中国的经济增长不太可能停下来。但是由于Xi的上台后严抓腐败，所以微观经济改革中需要的解放私营部门，促进投资的事情并没有发生。
网络公司阿里巴巴惊人的成功让我们觉得一波创业企业成功的浪潮正在袭来。而且显然，在中国新注册公司的数量正在激增。但是我们目前并不知道私企投资的数据。China's economic growth is not about to recover in a hurry and is likely to be below 7 per cent next year.
That means commodity prices will also stay low for some time and Australia's terms of trade will continue to fall.Gough Whitlam's visit in 1971 opened up diplomatic relations with China and began 40 years of rewarding trade for Australian businesses with almost uninterrupted national income growth. In many ways, it was his most significant economic act.This year - the year of Whitlam's death - is the first in which the relationship he helped set up is proving to be more challenge than opportunity.中国的经济增长并不是急匆匆的恢复，并且明年的增长很可能会低于7%。这就意味着大宗商品价格也将保持低位一段时间，澳大利亚的贸易（量）将继续下降。
1971年惠特拉姆的访问开启了澳大利亚和中国的建交。并且为澳大利亚带来了40年的对澳大利亚企业有益的贸易与几乎没有中断的国民收入增长。从各种方面来说，这是惠特拉姆最显著的经济作为。而今年——惠特拉姆去世的这一年——是他帮助建立的中澳关系被证明挑战多于机遇的一年。
