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China is one of the world’s largest economies and its equity market, combining listings in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, is second only in value to the US. Yet the country remains notably absent from global indices.
中国是世界最大的经济体之一，其股市总市值（包括上海、深圳和香港股市）名列世界第二，仅次于美国。但在全球指数中，中国所占的份量仍明显不足。
China makes up only about three per cent of the MSCI AC World Index, for example, despite having the world’s second-largest economy. “China is the last great frontier. It is an incredibly large, diverse market and it will be important and impactful when it begins to be added to global benchmarks,” says Mat Lystra, director of international indexes methodology at Russell Indexes.
例如，尽管中国已是世界第二大经济体，但它在摩根士丹利资本国际所有国家世界指数(MSCI AC World Index)中的权重仅为约3%。“中国是最后一块有待开垦的荒原。它是一个极其庞大、多元化的市场，当它开始被纳入全球基准时，它的重要性和影响力将突显出来，”罗素指数(Russell Indexes)国际指数方法学总监马特•利斯特拉(Mat Lystra)说。
But a greater presence for China in indices is far from simple. This year, both FTSE and MSCI ruled out including A-shares, stocks incorporated in mainland China and denominated in renminbi.
但让中国在全球指数中拥有更大权重绝非易事。今年，富时(FTSE)和摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)都排除了将中国内地上市的以人民币计价的A股纳入其股票指数的可能性。
Although the A-shares market is both “large and important”, investors have big concerns about its potential inclusion, says Chin-Ping Chia, head of Asia-Pacific research at MSCI.
MSCI亚太区研究主管谢征傧(Chin-Ping Chia)说，尽管A股市场“既大又重要”，但投资者十分担心其潜在的包容性。
Chief among these is access to Chinese securities. Hong Kong offers a way in to offshore stocks, but foreign firms currently have to invest in A-shares and Chinese corporate bonds through quota-based systems known as QFII and RQFII.
首要的担忧是进入中国证券市场的渠道。香港提供了一条投资中国企业在境外上市股票的渠道，但境外公司要想投资A股和中国的企业债，目前只能经由名为“合格境外机构投资者”(QFII)和“人民币合格境外机构投资者”(RQFII)的配额体系。
The number of QFII and RQFII licences granted to foreign investors has risen sharply in recent years, jumping by 33 per cent in the year to February 2014 alone, according to FTSE. However, fund firms applying for licences still face tough restrictions, including a minimum level of assets under management.
富时的数据显示，近年来中国向境外投资者发放的QFII和RQFII牌照数量急剧增多，仅在截至2014年2月的一年里就增加了33%。但是，申请牌照的基金公司仍面临严苛的限制，包括管理资产额不得低于某个水平。
The current restrictions and the quota-based system mean many asset managers are unable to access the market, says Mr Chia. “The quota is restricted. Some investors are not allocated quotas or do not get sufficient quotas, so they do not have a meaningful exposure,” he says.
谢征傧说，目前的限制及配额制度使得许多资产管理公司无法进入中国证券市场。他说：“配额是受限制的。一些投资者没拿到配额、或者没拿到足够的配额，因此没有建立可观的敞口。
“If you were to put a significant portion of A-shares into the index, the asset manager would not be able to replicate the position in many cases.”
“即使你把很大一部分A股纳入指数中，资产管理公司在很多情况下也无法比照着建立相应的头寸。”
Eddie Pong, director of research analysis at FTSE, says: “If you cannot access [the Chinese market], it doesn’t matter how big it is.”
富时研究分析总监Eddie Pong表示：“如果你无法进入（中国市场），那它再大都跟你没关系。”
As well as obstacles such as these, Mr Chia says MSCI has concerns around capital mobility rules, including a requirement to invest within six months of being granted a quota.
谢征傧称，除了上述障碍，MSCI还担忧关于资本流动性的规定，包括要求境外投资者在拿到配额后的6个月内进行投资的规定。
The new Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect programme, which allows investors to buy some A-shares via Hong Kong, will address some of the access issues. However, Mr Chia says the scheme is “not perfect”, especially as investors will still not be able to acquire stocks on the Shenzhen exchange.
新启动的沪港通机制允许投资者经由香港购买部分A股，这将在一定程度上解决进入市场的渠道问题。但是，谢征傧认为，这一机制“并不完美”，尤其是考虑到投资者仍无法购买深圳证券交易所上市的股票。
Index providers also bemoan the settlement process in China, which currently differs from conventional standards, and the lack of clarity around capital gains tax.
指数供应商还对中国当前异于常规标准的结算程序以及资本利得税缺乏透明度颇有微词。
Yet, despite the difficulties, the day when Chinese stocks appear on global indices is edging closer, says Mr Chia. “It is only a matter of time before China A-shares are included.”
但谢征傧表示，尽管存在这些困难，中国股票登陆全球指数的日子还是越来越近，“中国A股被纳入只是时间问题”。
Mr Pong agrees: “The timeframe we are talking about is probably five years.”
Eddie Pong赞同谢征傧的观点，称：“大概需要5年时间。”
With this in mind, index providers are now grappling with the weighting they should give to Chinese securities in benchmarks.
基于这一点，指数供应商正在设法估算应在基准中赋予中国证券多大的权重。
Shan Lan, head of global equity index change and ETF research at Deutsche Bank, says: “It will be very difficult if not completely impossible for fund managers to replicate the indices, given the constraints that currently exist in accessing China’s domestic equity markets. However, we support the idea of an inclusion starting with a small weight.”
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)全球股指变化和交易所交易基金(ETF)研究主管Shan Lan说：“考虑到中国国内股市目前存在的准入限制，基金管理公司要复制指数是非常困难、乃至完全没可能的。但我们赞同在纳入时先赋予较小的权重。”
This is already happening on the fixed income side, says Sui Chung, managing director of Euromoney Indices. The HSBC Asian Local Bond Index, for example, includes onshore RMB dominated bonds, but not at the Chinese market’s full weighing.
Euromoney Indices董事总经理Sui Chung表示，固定收益领域已经在这样做了。例如，汇丰亚洲本地债券指数(HSBC Asian Local Bond Index)纳入了在岸人民币债券，但其权重只相当于中国市场应有权重的一部分。
Mr Chung says: “From an index construction point of view, you want the index to represent as accurately as possible any given market.”
Sui Chung说：“从构建指数的角度看，你会希望该指数尽可能准确地代表任何给定的市场。”
This means that for China’s very large market to be represented accurately, “you should include lots of Chinese bonds. But to balance that, you have to have an eye on accessibility. Yes, it is very large, but can investors actually access it?”
这意味着，要想准确代表中国的极为庞大的市场，“你应当纳入大量中国债券。但若想做到平衡，你就需要关注准入程度。没错，它非常大，但投资者真能进入吗？”
On the equities side, Mr Lystra at Russell Indexes says providers are likely to start off with China A-shares accounting for about 10 per cent of an index, with this rising gradually. Earlier this year, FTSE launched its global RQFII and QFII index series.
在股市方面，罗素指数的利斯特拉说，指数供应商一开始时很可能会让中国A股在一项指数中占10%左右的权重，然后逐步提高。今年早些时候，富时推出了其全球R/QFII指数系列。
Other index providers are likely to offer similar products, as well as providing customised benchmarks for asset managers that already have access to the A-shares market.
其他指数供应商很可能会推出类似的产品，并为已有渠道进入A股市场的资产管理公司提供量身定制的基准。
These benchmarks will help investors to prepare for the future possible inclusion of China in global indices, an event Mr Lystra says will be similar to including “another USA”.
这些基准将帮助投资者做好准备，迎接中国或被纳入全球指数的那一天——利斯特拉称，这一事件将类似于纳入“另一个美国”。
