评论
打印
Fevered rallies and dramatic falls go with the territory of investing in mainland China. But even by Shanghai’s wild standards, yesterday’s plunge was one to remember.
就投资中国内地股市而言，亢奋性反弹和戏剧性下跌堪称家常便饭。但即使按照上海的狂野标准，昨日的暴跌也是令人难忘的。
By the close of trading, the Shanghai Composite had tumbled 7.7 per cent — its biggest fall in five years — erasing all its January gains. Having been the best performing market in the world last year, China’s volatile streak has been swiftly exposed once more.
上证综指收跌7.7%，创五年来最大单日跌幅，并一举抹去1月全部涨幅。在去年表现领衔全球之后，中国股市很快再度暴露出波动性较高的一面。
The immediate trigger was a move by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to clamp down on margin lending at the big brokerages, which all saw their stocks down by the daily limit of 10 per cent. Borrowing to invest in equities has been a key driver of Shanghai’s charge upwards, with margin financing almost tripling between June and December to hit Rmb767bn ($124bn) last week.
直接导火线是中国证监会(CSRC)出台整治大型券商不规范融资融券业务的举措。这些券商的股票全部跌停（达到单日下跌10%的限度）。借款投资股票的行为是上海股市此轮涨势的关键推动因素之一，融资额在去年6月至12月期间增加近两倍，上周达到7670亿元人民币（合1240亿美元）。
Hong Hao, strategist at Bank of Communications, described the curb on margin trading as a “nasty surprise”, and one that could send the market into a tailspin. “With less incremental liquidity flow into stocks and damped sentiment, the market will correct in the near term, and the move can be violent,” Mr Hong wrote in a note to clients.
交通银行(Bank of Communications)策略师洪灏形容整治融资交易是一个“令人不快的意外”，而且可能导致市场急转直下。“随着流入股票的增量流动性减少，情绪受到抑制，市场将在短期内调整，震荡可能相当剧烈，”洪灏在发给客户的一份简报中表示。
Separately on Friday, the banking regulator issued draft rules that would limit the use of intercompany loans. Loans between non-financial companies, in which a bank serves as intermediary, have exploded in recent years, with new loans hitting Rmb2.5tn in 2014. Local media reports say some of those funds have flowed into the stock market.
此外，中国银监会(CBRC)上周五颁布限制使用公司间贷款的规则草案。近年来，由银行扮演中介角色的非金融公司之间的贷款出现爆炸式增长，2014年新增贷款达到2.5万亿元人民币。中国媒体称，这其中有一部分资金流入了股市。
The question now facing investors is whether the market can bounce back quickly without more credit-fuelled speculation. Many are bullish, seeing the new regulations as simply a stress test for the market.
目前投资者面临的问题是，在没有更多信贷助燃的投机行为的情况下，市场能否迅速反弹？对此很多人看法乐观，认为新规定只是市场遭遇的一次压力测试。
Jin Mi, tactical trading analyst at China Merchants Securities, a top 10 brokerage by assets, says the CSRC was sending “a warning to the market against excessive optimism”. “Almost no investors believe this is the end of the party,” he writes in a report.
按资产排名跻身于中国十大券商之列的招商证券(China Merchants Securities)的战术交易分析师靳谜（音）表示，中国证监会“向市场发出了一个警告，反对乐观过头”。他在一份报告中写道，“几乎没有投资者认为这标志着派对结束。”
Many analysts believe Shanghai’s bull run is a government-induced phenomenon, designed to give Chinese savers an alternative to the wobbly housing market or risky shadow banking products. That has drawn in millions of retail punters, who have been opening new trading accounts at a record pace.
许多分析师认为，此轮上海牛市本来就是政府引发的现象，旨在为中国储户提供一条投资渠道，使他们无需依赖岌岌可危的楼市或者高风险的影子银行产品。股市上涨引来了数以百万计的散户，新开交易账户的速度创下新高。
“The government has been urging people to buy stocks, which gives people a sense of a put on the market,” says David Cui, strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
“政府一直在敦促人们买股票，这给人们一个市场有（官方）托盘的感觉，”美银美林(BofAML)股票策略师崔伟(David Cui)表示。
November’s rate cut by the People’s Bank of China — the first since 2012 — appeared further confirmation that Beijing had encouraged a shift into the stock market. With that backdrop, yesterday’s tumble could be a case of letting off steam rather than a fatal blow to sentiment.
去年11月，中国央行自2012年以来首次降息，似乎进一步证实北京方面鼓励人们转投股市。在这样的背景下，昨日的暴跌可能相当于放掉一些泡沫，而不是对市场情绪的致命打击。
“We most likely will enter a consolidation phase in the coming weeks,” says Francois Perrin, head of Greater China equities at BNP Paribas Investment Partners. “But there is a very strong commitment of the Chinese government to continue to have the market going up.”
“我们很可能会在未来几周进入一个盘整阶段，”法国巴黎投资管理公司(BNP Paribas Investment Partners)大中华区股票部主管弗朗索瓦•佩兰(Francois Perrin)表示。“但是中国政府有一个非常强有力的承诺，那就是推动市场上行。”
But China’s equity bears have seen the dark clouds gathering for a while. Mr Cui says banks and brokers have been “knocking down the door” to lend on margin, leaving investors vulnerable to an abrupt switch in sentiment.
但是，看跌中国股市的人士看到乌云聚集已经有一段时间了。美银美林的崔伟表示，各家银行和券商迫不及待地提供融资交易，使投资者在市场情绪突变之际陷于脆弱处境。
“When you have so leveraged a position, when everybody tries to exit at the same time, liquidity disappears because there’s going to be only sellers and no buyers,” says Mr Cui, who warned in early December that a “fast and furious” sell-off was due.
“当你有这种杠杆头寸的时候，当大家都在同一时间试图退场时，流动性就会消失，因为此时只有卖家，而没有买家，”崔伟表示。他曾在12月初警告，中国股市可能出现一次“快速而剧烈的”抛售。
Other signals had been suggesting a rally under stress. Price gaps between Hong Kong and Shanghai listings of Chinese companies had jumped to their widest in five years, something that has rarely endured at such levels for long.
此前有其他信号暗示，此轮涨势已经处于压力之下。在香港和上海两地上市的中国企业股价差异跃升至五年来最大水平，而以往这样的股价之差很少会持久。
While the Shanghai Composite has soared in the past six months, Chinese shares in Hong Kong have remained in second gear. “There is a clear divergence between where the [domestic] share market is going and where fundamentals are going,” adds Mr Cui. “At a certain point, you know this gap is probably going to snap back.”
上证综指在过去六个月期间飙升的同时，在香港上市的中国内地股票却一直表现平平。“内地股市走向与基本面因素明显分道扬镳，”崔伟补充说。“在某个时候，你知道这个差距可能一下子消失。”
