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Bond investors are betting that US interest rates will remain near historic lows following mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, highlighting a persistent gulf in expectations between the central bank and markets.
债券投资者押注美国利率将保持在接近历史低点的水平，此前美联储(Federal Reserve)本周会议释放出的混合信号突显了该央行与市场预期之间持续存在的差距。
A day after the Fed dropped its pledge to be “patient” over lifting rates, traders were betting that its key interest rate would be just 1.80 per cent by the end of 2017. Market rates rose yesterday but investors’ forecasts are still well below the Fed’s own projections.
美联储摒弃对加息保持“耐心”承诺后的第二天，交易员们押注到2017年底美联储关键利率将只有1.8%。昨日市场利率上涨，但是投资者的预期仍然远低于美联储的预测。
Tad Rivelle, chief investment officer for fixed income at TCW, said that the Fed was giving out conflicting messages on rates, describing its signalling as similar to a “Michael Jackson moonwalk”.
TCW固定收益产品首席投资官塔德•里韦尔(Tad Revelle)称，美联储在利率方面发出了相互矛盾的信息，形容它释放的信号类似于“迈克尔•杰克逊(Michael Jackson moonwalk)的月球舞步”。
“It looks like you are going one way but in fact you are moving in the other direction,” he said.
“看上去你在走向一个方向，但事实上你正向另一个方向前进，”他称。
Janet Yellen, the Fed chairwoman, said on Wednesday that the majority of members of the Federal Open Market Committee were expecting rates to rise this year amid “considerable underlying strength” in the economy.
美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)周三表示，在美国经济存在“相当大的根本层面力量”的大背景下，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的多数成员预计今年将上调利率。
However, a series of reductions in the Fed’s interest-rate projections alongside forecasts of weaker growth and inflation prompted traders to conclude that the central bank was taking a more cautious view of the economy — even as it opened up its options on rates.
然而，美联储的利率预测一再下调，加上更疲软的增长和通胀预期，促使交易员们得出结论认为，该央行对经济采取了比较谨慎的观点——即便其将加息选项纳入考虑范围。
That suggested a move in June was now less likely and traders were betting that by the end of the year the funds rate would be about 0.50 per cent, representing a 0.25 percentage point tightening.
这似乎表明，现在看来6月加息的可能性降低了，交易员们押注到今年底联邦基金利率将在0.50%左右，相当于收紧0.25个百分点。
The interplay between currencies and central bank policy has anchored US bond yields at low levels, bolstering market expectations that the pace of the next tightening cycle will be modest.
汇率和央行政策之间的相互作用使美国国债收益率固定在低位，支撑了市场对于下一个政策收紧周期的步伐将比较温和的预期。
Investors yesterday seized on the Fed’s decision to lower its estimate of the longer-term rate of unemployment to 5-5.2 per cent, suggesting that the US jobs market may have more slack than previously believed and allowing the FOMC to keep rates lower for longer.
昨天，投资者抓住美联储将长期失业率下调至5%至5.2%的决定，提出美国就业市场可能比之前所认为的更加低迷，使FOMC能够在更长时间内保持较低利率。
Ms Yellen also highlighted the impact of the soaring dollar on the Fed’s assessment of export growth and inflation. While the dollar reflected the US economy’s strength, it would also act as a “notable drag” on net exports this year, she said, adding that it was pulling down import prices, pointing to low inflation for longer. The dollar had retraced most of its losses in the wake of the FOMC meeting, and was up 0.8 per cent against a basket of rivals late yesterday.
耶伦还强调了美元飙升给美联储对出口增长和通胀的评估所带来的影响。她称，尽管美元反映了美国的经济实力，但它也会对今年的净出口形成“明显阻力”。她还表示，美元走强正在拉低进口价格，意味着低通胀将维持更长时间。在FOMC会议后，美元收复大部分失地，昨日晚些时候对一篮子货币的汇率上涨0.8%。
Alan Ruskin, strategist at Deutsche Bank said: “From a pure financial standpoint, the dollar’s strength has reached a magnitude that represents a drag on the economy.”
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)策略师艾伦•拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)称，“单纯从金融的角度来看，美元强势已经达到拖累经济的程度。”
Ms Yellen presides over a committee divided about when to lift rates: a day after her press conference, the Chicago Federal Reserve warned that the Fed risked triggering adverse shocks by raising rates too soon.
耶伦主持的委员会在何时加息的问题上意见分歧：在她举行记者会后的次日，芝加哥联储(Chicago Federal Reserve)警告称，美联储过早加息可能引发负面冲击。
