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Asia’s fast-growing bond market faced its biggest challenge earlier this year, with the sudden fall from grace of Kaisa, the Shenzhen-based property developer.
今年早些时候，随着深圳房地产开发商佳兆业(Kaisa)陷入困境，亚洲快速发展的债券市场面临有史以来最为严峻的考验。
On Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Kaisa to “D”, meaning default, after it missed two bond coupon payments — the latest twist in a tale that sent panic through the Chinese real estate sector just a few weeks earlier. Its ability to reach a quick deal with creditors remains “highly uncertain”, the rating agency said.
最近，在佳兆业未能偿付两笔债券利息之后，标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)将其评级下调至违约级别的“D”级，这是仅仅数周前让中国房地产领域感到恐慌的事件中的最新风波。标普表示，佳兆业能否与债权人快速达成协议依然“极不确定”。
Yet initial fears that contagion would spread through the credit market appear to have blown over. Bond prices have recovered, and investors are once again lending billions of dollars to Chinese homebuilders. So has this impromptu stress test been passed with flying colours?
然而，最初有关恐慌将在整个信贷市场蔓延的担忧似乎已经消散。债券价格已经回升，投资者再次将数十亿美元借给中国房地产公司。那么债市已经成功通过了这次意外的压力测试？
Before its blow-up, Kaisa was seen as a good barometer for the sector. It was profitable, medium-sized, possessed a BB credit rating, and held around $2.5bn in offshore debt. Its rapid decline called into question the investment thesis upon which tens of billions of dollars had been lent to Chinese developers over the past few years.
在爆发危机前，佳兆业曾被视为房地产行业的一个很好的风向标。那时，该公司盈利，中等规模，拥有BB信用评级，有大约25亿美元的离岸债务。它的快速坍塌令人开始质疑房地产这一投资主题——过去几年投资者借给了中国房地产开发商数百亿美元。
Negative headlines have not been restricted to Kaisa. A number of other Chinese developers have reported sharp drops in sales or abrupt executive departures, while the housing market has continued to weaken despite two rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China.
登上负面新闻头条的并不仅仅是佳兆业。其他许多中国房地产开发商都曝出了销售大幅下降或者高管突然离职的消息，同时房地产市场继续低迷，尽管中国人民银行(PBOC)两次下调了利率。
“It appears we’re nowhere close to the property market really beginning to turn around”, says Kenneth Akintewe, investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management.
安本资产管理(Aberdeen Asset Management)的投资经理肯尼斯•埃金特韦(Kenneth Akintewe)表示：“我们离房地产市场真正开始好转似乎还远得很。”
However, the bond market has proven remarkably resilient. The JPMorgan Asian credit index (JACI) has risen 2.1 per cent this year, while even the high yield segment, which is dominated by Chinese real estate companies, is up 1.5 per cent.
然而，事实证明，债券市场的韧性非常强。摩根大通亚洲信贷指数(JACI)今年上涨2.1%，同时由中国房地产公司占据主导地位的高收益债券指数也上涨1.5%。
Issuance from the real estate sector has also returned after a brief hiatus. Country Garden and Shimao Property — both junk-rated borrowers — have together raised more than $2bn, while Sino-Ocean Land completed one of the sector’s biggest deals on record. In total, the sector has raised more than $3.5bn in new borrowing since Kaisa unravelled, according to Dealogic.
在短暂中断之后，房地产业也重新开始发债。碧桂园(Country Garden)和世茂(Shimao)（评级均为垃圾级）总计筹得了逾20亿美元的资金，同时远洋地产(Sino-Ocean Land)完成了房地产业有记录以来最大规模之一的债券发售。Dealogic的数据显示，自佳兆业爆发危机以来，中国房地产行业总计筹得了逾35亿美元的新债务资金。
“Chinese real estate debt has rebounded surprisingly quickly,” says Haitham Ghattas, head of Asian high yield capital markets at Deutsche Bank. “That it can deal with a credit event like this does seem to demonstrate that the market has matured to some degree.”
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的亚洲高收益资本市场主管海塞姆•加塔(Haitham Ghattas)表示：“中国房地产债券令人意外地迅速反弹。它能应对佳兆业这样的信用事件似乎的确表明，市场在某种程度上成熟了。”
Asia’s offshore debt markets have been growing rapidly during the past few years. Asian borrowers have raised $52.4bn in G3 currency bonds so far this year, according to Dealogic, compared with $18bn over the same period in 2010.
亚洲的离岸债券市场在过去几年快速发展。Dealogic的数据显示，今年迄今以来，亚洲借款人通过发行美元、欧元和日元债券筹集了524亿美元的资金，相比之下，2010年同期的这一数据为180亿美元。
That growth has drawn in new investors, something analysts say has dulled the threat of panic selling and helped the market ride out bad news.
这种增长吸引了新的投资者，分析师认为它减轻了恐慌性抛售的威胁，并有助于市场免受坏消息的影响。
“The investor base has changed significantly. You get a lot more local bids,” says Ben Sy, head of credit strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank in Asia. “They know the market better. They have a lot more holding power, so you don’t get selling across the sector.”
摩根大通私人银行(JPMorgan Private Bank)驻亚洲信贷策略主管本•西(Ben Sy)表示：“投资者基础发生了极大的改变。来自本地机构的报价更多了。这些机构更了解本地市场。他们有更大的粘着力，因此不会出现整个行业的抛售。”
Investors have also drawn comfort from the fact that Kaisa’s problems have not led to a formal liquidation of the company — typically a drawn-out process that leaves bondholders nursing heavy losses. Deloitte estimated that Kaisa creditors would get less than 3 cents on the dollar if the company was wound up.
佳兆业的问题没有导致该公司正式清算——正式清算是一个通常让债券持有人蒙受重大损失的漫长过程——这也让投资者获得些许慰藉。德勤(Deloitte)估计，如果佳兆业破产，该公司债权人的受偿率将不足3%。
Over the weekend, the company said it would continue negotiations with its bondholders in order to reach a “consensual resolution” over a debt restructuring, another positive sign for investors.
佳兆业在周末表示，将继续与债券持有人谈判，以就债务重组达成一个“双方一致同意的解决方案”，对投资者来说，这又是一个积极的迹象。
However, the recovery in sentiment towards property sector bonds remains fragile, especially as the housing market itself shows renewed signs of sluggishness. Sales in the first two months of the year were “pretty weak”, said Gary Lau, credit analyst at Moody’s, something that will increasingly weigh on investors’ minds.
然而，投资者对房地产债券的情绪改善仍很脆弱，尤其是在房地产市场本身重新显示出疲弱迹象之际。穆迪(Moody’s)信用分析师刘长浩表示，今年头两个月的房地产销售“相当低迷”，这将给投资者带来越来越大的压力。
“The overall operating environment in the property market is declining. The weakening trend is making investors more cautious,” he said.
他说：“房地产市场的整体运营环境日渐低迷。这种疲弱态势让投资者更加谨慎。”
Those worries have been manifested in a flight to quality. Despite the recent activity, just six developers have raised new debt this year, down from 20 over the same period in 2013.
这些担忧还体现在“安全投资转移”上。尽管最近房地产企业发行了债券，但今年发行新债的房地产开发商只有6家，远低于2013年同期的20家。
Investors are increasingly gravitating towards companies deemed better equipped for the slowdown — typically larger, state-backed builders. Smaller property borrowers are likely to face a bumpier road ahead.
投资者日益转向那些被视为更能抵御市场低迷的公司，尤其是国有背景的较大型房地产公司。较小的房地产公司今后的日子可能更加难过。
Meanwhile, the Kaisa situation itself could yet drag on. The proposed rescue by rival homebuilder Sunac remains dependent on bondholders agreeing to defer interest payments and slash coupons on existing debts, which some analysts fear creates an unhealthy precedent if other developers run into trouble.
与此同时，佳兆业的情况本身可能会久拖不决。其竞争对手融创(Sunac)提出的纾困举措，依然取决于债券持有人是否同意延迟利息支付和降低现有债券利率，部分分析师担心，如果未来其他开发商陷入困境，这会开创一个不好的先例。
