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When Alibaba publishes its quarterly earnings in New York today, the Chinese ecommerce group will face the clamour from a crowd of increasingly sceptical investors.
阿里巴巴(Alibaba)将于今日在纽约发布其季度盈利财报。届时，这家中国电子商务集团将面临一群日益对其持怀疑态度的投资者的公开质疑。
There is a palpable sense among analysts that Alibaba’s honeymoon — which saw the ecommerce group break records with last year’s $25bn New York listing — is over.
在分析师中间，存在一种不难察觉的想法：阿里巴巴的蜜月期结束了。在此前的蜜月期中，这家电子商务集团曾于去年在纽约以250亿美元的上市规模创下记录。
Since November, Alibaba’s share price has fallen from more than $119 to $79 earlier this week — the first time its shares have dipped below $80 since its record-breaking initial public offering in September.
自去年11月以来，阿里巴巴的股价已从每股119美元跌至本周早些时候的每股79美元。这是该集团去年9月创纪录的IPO以来股价首次跌破80美元。
Analysts will be watching the earnings announcement for any evidence of sluggishness in revenue growth, which undershot expectations at Alibaba’s previous results statement in January. They will also be looking for clarity on government attempts to regulate ecommerce and how this will affect the company’s profits.
分析师将密切关注阿里巴巴的财报，寻找任何营收增长疲软的证据——今年1月阿里巴巴前一份财报中的该指标就未能达到预期。此外他们还将关注的是，阿里巴巴将如何澄清政府部门对电子商务的监管、及其对阿里巴巴盈利的影响。
“There is a lot of concern about just how sustainable is the hype around Alibaba,” said Shaun Rein, head of China Market Research Group, the Shanghai-based consultancy. “The share price went out of control after the IPO but all the hedge funds we were talking to said: ‘We want to get in before anyone else does, and we want to get out before anyone else does.’ ”
上海咨询公司中国市场研究集团(China Market Research Group)主管雷小山(Shaun Rein)表示：“许多人担心的是，围绕阿里巴巴的宣传噱头会持续多久。在IPO之后，阿里巴巴的股价已经失控。然而，与我们对话的对冲基金都表示：‘我们希望在其他人入场前入场，还希望在其他人离场前离场。’”
Alibaba will be hoping that Thursday’s earnings announcement receives a better reception than its previous one in January, which sent its stock down 10 per cent on weaker than expected revenues. But perhaps most of the damage was due to Alibaba’s dispute with the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, a Chinese regulator.
从阿里巴巴的角度来说，他们会希望投资者对周四财报的接受程度能高于1月份的前一份财报。由于营收弱于预期，今年1月的财报曾导致阿里巴巴股价下跌10%。不过，也许导致阿里巴巴股价损失的最大原因，应该是该集团与中国监管机构国家工商行政管理总局(State Administration for Industry and Commerce)之间的争端。
In January SAIC said it had found evidence of bribery, fake listings and counterfeit goods on Taobao, Alibaba’s most popular consumer marketplace.
今年1月，国家工商局表示，该机构发现了淘宝(Taobao)网站贿赂行为、虚假销售清单及假冒商品的证据。淘宝是阿里巴巴旗下人气最高的购物市场平台。
The attention from regulators spooked some investors, said Chi Tsang, internet analyst covering Alibaba for HSBC in Hong Kong.
香港汇丰银行(HSBC)研究阿里巴巴问题的互联网分析师Chi Tsang表示，监管机构的关注令部分投资者感到害怕。
“Some think the government may yet force Alibaba to drop all these merchants that are selling fake goods, and if so, what is that going to do to sales on Taobao?” he asked.
他说：“部分人认为，政府也许还未迫使阿里巴巴下线那些销售伪劣商品的商家，如果他们这么做，这会对淘宝的销售产生什么影响？”
Mark Natkin, director of Marbridge Consulting, the Beijing-based internet consultancy, said the SAIC row had “planted a coconut-sized seed of doubt in everyone’s mind” about Alibaba’s business model.
Marbridge Consulting董事马克•纳特金(Mark Natkins)表示，与工商总局的争端“在每个人心目中埋下了（针对阿里巴巴商业模式的）巨大疑窦”。Marbridge Consulting是一家总部驻北京的互联网咨询公司。
“The SAIC’s report didn’t tell anyone anything they didn’t already know,” he said. “The fact that there are a lot of fake products on Taobao has never really bothered anyone, but now that the government seems serious about regulation, people don’t know what cleaning that up will mean for Alibaba’s bottom line.”
他说：“工商总局的报告所说的，全部是大家都知道的事实。淘宝网站充斥大量伪劣产品的事实从未真正困扰过任何人。然而，政府如今似乎要严肃对待淘宝网的监管问题。人们不太清楚的是，这一清理工作会对阿里巴巴的盈利产生什么影响。”
The lower than expected revenues in January, added Mr Tsang, partly reflected a switch to mobile by many users — a platform that generates smaller revenues because merchants are unwilling to pay as much for mobile advertising.
Chi Tsang补充说，1月份阿里巴巴营收低于预期，部分反映出许多用户转向了移动设备。由于商家不愿为移动广告支付同样多的费用，移动平台带来的营收相对要少一些。
Mr Rein said another concern was that Alibaba was paying the price for its pre-IPO corporate shopping spree, and a hiring glut that raised staff headcount by nearly 50 per cent.
雷小山表示，人们还担心的问题是，阿里巴巴正在为IPO前的疯狂收购行为及其过度招聘行为付出代价。在之前的过度招聘行为中，阿里巴巴的员工人数增长了近50%。
Jack Ma, Alibaba’s chairman and founder, recently responded to accusations of bloat by declaring a hiring freeze along with other austerity measures, such as not paying workers a traditional spring festival bonus.
最近，为回应阿里巴巴过度膨胀的说法，阿里巴巴创始人兼董事长马云(Jack Ma)曾宣布将停止招聘。此外，他还公布了其他多项减支举措——比如停止向员工发放传统的春节奖金。
“They obviously pushed hard to get great numbers to have a super awesome IPO,” said Mr Rein. “But it’s hard to maintain that momentum. It might have been better to have slightly weaker IPO numbers, and then just kick butt in the coming quarters.”
雷小山表示：“很明显，为了在IPO中大获成功，他们尽极大努力营造了完美的报表数据。然而，这种势头是很难维持的。也许，让IPO的数据稍稍疲弱一点，再在随后几个季度里发力可能会更好些。”
Cao Lei, director of the China Ecommerce Research Center in Alibaba’s home city of Hangzhou, said the acquisition spree last year — in which the company made more than $6bn of new investments in the lead-up to its IPO — had been a failure. “The abundance of companies it acquired last year have not apparently contributed to its existing business,” said Mr Cao.
中国电子商务研究中心(China Ecommerce Research Center)主任曹磊表示，去年阿里巴巴的疯狂收购是个失败的举措。他说：“阿里巴巴去年收购的大量企业，似乎并未对其现有业务有何帮助。”在去年的疯狂收购中，阿里巴巴在IPO前的新投资项目规模超过了60亿美元。至于中国电子商务研究中心，该机构的位置就在阿里巴巴总部所在的杭州市。
“For the moment Alibaba does not have many tricks in the bag to impress the market,” he said.
他说：“目前，阿里巴巴没有多少能让市场印象深刻的锦囊妙计了。”
Alibaba, citing a pre-earnings quiet period, declined to comment.
阿里巴巴方面拒绝发表相关置评，表示目前处于发布财报前的静默期。
