评论
打印
Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft and co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, was interviewed by Lionel Barber, the editor of the Financial Times, in front of a live audience. Here is an edited transcript of their conversation.
微软(Microsoft)创始人、比尔和梅琳达•盖茨基金会(Bill-Melinda Gates Foundation)联合主席比尔•盖茨(Bill Gates)，在现场观众面前接受了英国《金融时报》总编辑莱昂内尔•巴贝尔(Lionel Barber)的采访。以下为他们两人对话的编辑实录。
Why do you believe the rate of innovation is accelerating?
你为什么认为创新的速度在加快？
The magic of software is we can take something and figure it out and replicate it for very little cost. The kind of change we’ve had over the past 250 years, we’ll get more than that in the next 50 years.
软件的魔力在于，我们可以拿到某件东西，经过分析之后，用很低的成本把它复制出来。我们在未来50年里经历的变化，会比在过去250年里经历的变化还要大。
Can you assure us that the world of Blade Runner, where the robots will take over, that’s some time away, we don’t have to worry about that?
你能否确定地告诉我们，机器人掌权的“银翼杀手”(Blade Runner)世界距离现在还有一些时间、我们无需为此担心？
They will be benign for quite some time.
在相当长的时间里，机器人将是没有危害的。
You’re talking about a world of serious labour substitution. What areas of the labour market are most at risk?
你在谈论一个劳动力被大量替代的世界。劳动力市场的哪些部分面临最大的风险？
For those high-school-educated or below is where there will be substitution. We’ve been destroying manufacturing jobs at quite a rate, and that’s good. It makes things cheaper. People demand more things.
那些高中或高中以下教育程度的人，将成为被替代的对象。我们一直在以相当快的速度摧毁制造业岗位，这是好事。这让各种各样的东西变得更便宜。人们需求的东西变多了。
It does mean that if you’re not educating your population very well, you’re going to have a segment of it that if you want to create jobs, those will be almost entirely subsidised activities.
这的确意味着，如果你不把人口教育得很好，那么有一部分人的情况是，你想给他们创造工作岗位的话，那些工作将是几乎完全受到补贴的活动。
Subsided by who?
谁提供补贴？
By the government, by society, if there is desire to have those people have employment.
由政府和社会补贴，如果想要让这些人就业的话。
In this Uber economy, do you have a message for the London taxi driver?
在当前的优步(Uber)经济中，您有什么话想对伦敦的出租车司机讲吗？
The real Rubicon there is the self-driving car. Uber is just a reorganisation of the labour pool into a more dynamic form. The serious revolution is when that capability is machine-based.
真正的分水岭是自动驾驶汽车。优步只是用一种更有活力的形式把劳动力资源重新组织起来。真正的革命是当机器构成这种行业能力的基础时。
Are today’s tech companies overreaching?
今天的科技公司扩张过度了吗？
The guys who invented the steam engine, if you met them you might say they were a bunch of arrogant assholes. But the steam engine still changed the world. It doesn’t matter.
那些发明了蒸汽机的人，如果你们遇上他们，你们或许会说，他们是一群傲慢的混蛋。但蒸汽机仍然改变了世界。你们怎么说没有关系。
Are these tech companies overvalued?
这些科技公司的价值被高估了吗？
I wouldn’t go long on a basket of pre-IPO tech companies. I don’t think I’d go short either. Yes, a lot of them are overvalued. But the fact that they are a significant change agent that is changing the rules of the game for everything from drug discovery, agriculture, communications, media and entertainment.
我不会看多一些pre-IPO科技公司。我也不看空。是的，大量此类公司的价值被高估了。但事实是它们是一种重要的变革推动者，正在改变一切事物的游戏规则——从药品发明、农业、通信、媒体到娱乐等各个领域。
So we’re not in the tech bubble?
这么说，我们没有进入科技泡沫？
It’s not as extreme as it was in 2000 all the way up to March 2001. But we will have a few of these companies who have these pre-IPO billion-dollar valuations won’t make that transition.
现在泡沫没有2000年至2001年3月期间的那么极端。但会有几家这样的科技公司，pre-IPO估值达到数十亿美元，最终却没有推动上面提到的重要变革。
Lets talk a little about how best we can tackle climate change.
我们谈谈怎样最好地应对气候变化问题吧。
People get a little a misled. They’ll take something like solar PVs [photovoltaic panels], and say, when the sun is shining that daytime energy will replace hydrocarbons. That is completely uninteresting, because you still want to heat apartments at night. The system is all about reliability. You can drive the need for daytime energy down to zero and you still want the power company to have that hydrocarbon plant at night.
人们受到了一点儿误导。他们会拿着太阳能电池板之类的东西说，当白天太阳照耀时，日间获得的能源将取代碳氢化合物。这种说法无聊极了，因为你在夜间仍想给家里供暖。系统的问题完全在于可靠性。你可以把对日间能源的需求降到零，但在夜里你仍希望供电公司有碳氢化合物发电厂在工作。
We’ve got a little stuck on inventions that can take us up to 30 per cent of the solution. But because they’re subsidised, they’re not economically viable.
我们有点儿迷恋那些最多只能解决30%问题的发明。但由于它们受到了补贴，它们是没有经济可行性的。
Tell us about the “high wind” option.
跟我们讲讲“疾风”方案吧。
There’s lots of energy in lots of places of the planet. One of them is the jetstream. And the jetstream, unlike ground wind, is virtually constant. Actually capturing that energy is very difficult because you’re talking about a kite-like structure that is 20,000 feet in the air. You have to decide, if you’re generating energy up there, what’s the cabling system? Independent of the weather, you have to make sure that thing stays up there. There are a few wide-eyed companies in the space.
这个星球上的许多地方存在着大量的能源。其中之一就是喷射气流。喷射气流跟地面风不一样，是几乎从不停歇的。实际上，捕捉这种能量非常困难，因为这里涉及的是2万英尺高空的一个像风筝一样的结构。你必须决定，如果你要在那里生成能量，电缆系统要怎么弄？不管天气怎么样，你都必须确保一切保持正常。目前已有几家天真的公司在太空中尝试。
On the role of government. Reagan said that nine of the most terrifying words in the English language are “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.” Are you sympathetic to that point of view?
关于政府的角色。里根(Reagan)说过，英语中最吓人的一句话就是“我来自政府，我来帮忙。”你对这个观点有同感吗？
The government has a vital role in helping to tackle these problems. The voice of poor people, the price of that marketplace is nil. So some non-bottom line activity, of which government is a big piece and which philanthropy is a small piece has to come in for all the things of that nature.
在帮助解决这些问题时，政府扮演着一个至关重要的角色。穷人发不出声音，穷人市场的价格为零。所以，对于所有这类性质的事情，必须有一些非盈利行为，其中政府占大头，慈善占小头。
Saying the government can stay out of education, justice, energy, there’s simply no way someone could try that. Somalia shows you how that experiment goes.
说什么政府可以置身于教育、公正和能源之外，但其实谁也不可能试着这么做。索马里的经历，让大家看到了实验结果。
You once said success is a lousy teacher. What did you mean by that?
你曾说，成功是糟糕的老师。这是何意呢？
Anybody who’s super-successful has been misled a little bit. They don’t really know the actual magic factors of luck and skill that led them to this wonderful success. Hopefully they’re engaged in an effort where they have lots of failures, things that try and don’t work.
任何一位超级成功的人都受到了一点儿误导。他们并不真正了解，带他们取得如此美妙成功的运气和技能因素，实际上各自发挥了多大的魔力。希望他们能参与一项经历很多失败的努力，尝试一些最后不成功的东西。
What was your biggest failure?
你最大的失败是什么？
At Microsoft, the search market, the phone market, there’s a long list of things.
在微软，搜索市场、手机市场，一长串的东西都是最大的失败。
If you had one piece of advice to a young person, who wanted to be an innovator, what would it be?
如果请你给想成为创新者的年轻人提一条建议，那会是什么呢？
The sciences change the game. Entrepreneurs are the people who take it on, but the thing that shifts the rules of the game is science. If you really want to be part of driving that change yourself, just pick some state-of-the-art science and get involved in it.
科学改变游戏。企业家是那些付诸行动的人，但改变游戏规则的是科学。如果你真想亲身参与推动游戏规则的改变，挑选某种最新科技并投身其中就可以了。
You once said you were a hyper-intense person in your twenties. Is that still the case?
你曾说，自己在20多岁的时候是个极端工作狂。现在还如此吗？
In my twenties, I didn’t believe in vacations. I didn’t believe in weekends. They told me I had to have a board of directors meeting, so I said come in on Saturday morning.
20多岁时，我不看重假期。我不看重周末。他们告诉我，我必须召开一次董事会会议，所以我就说，周六上午开吧。
I am not as fanatical as I was in my twenties and early-thirties. I focused on one thing, which was building a great software company, night and day. I knew the licence plates of all my employees cars. I could tell you when they came into work, when they left work.
现在，我不像20多岁和30岁出头的时候那么极端了。过去我只关注一件事，那就是昼夜不舍地打造一家伟大的软件公司。我那时知道所有员工汽车的车牌号。我能说出他们是什么时候来上班，什么时候下班。
As you get older, I don’t know anyone who maintains that kind of intensity. Now I have family and friends. I believe in vacations and weekends, not quite at the European level.
随着年龄的增长，我不知道谁能一直保持着那种狂热状态。现在我有家人和朋友。我很看重假期和周末，不过看重程度比不上欧洲人。
QUESTIONS FROM THE AUDIENCE
观众提问
How do you feel about divesting from fossil fuels and shifting that to investing in renewables and energy storage?
你如何看待撤出对化石能源的投资、转投可再生能源及能源储存？
I don’t see a direct path between divesting and solving climate change. I think it’s wonderful that students care and now the Pope cares. But that energy of caring, I think you need to direct it towards something that solves the problem.
我不认为从化石能源撤资和解决气候变化之间有什么直接关系。我认为学生关心这类问题、如今教皇也关心这类问题是件好事。但是，我觉得你们应该把对能源问题的关心引向可以解决问题的事情上。
You mentioned some private tech companies are overvalued. Uber has been valued at $50bn, Palantir at $20bn, Snapchat at over $15bn. Which are the companies that are overvalued?
你提到了一些私人科技公司被高估了。优步被估值500亿美元，Palantir被估值200亿美元，Snapchat估值超过150亿美元。哪些公司被高估了？
When Microsoft was worth $500bn, which inflation-adjusted meant we were briefly the most valuable company of the world, I said to my friend Warren Buffett, what is the CEO of a company that is overvalued supposed to do? Am I supposed to say, hey, we’re overvalued? It’s a funny situation to be in. Even if you know the company will earn three times as much in the future, there are multiples that are too high even for that wonderful future.
在微软价值达到5000亿美元时——在扣除通货膨胀因素后，这意味着我们短暂成为全世界最有价值的公司——我对我朋友沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)说，公司价值被高估的CEO应该怎么办？我应该说，“嘿，我们被高估了”吗？身在其中是种很古怪的感觉。即便你知道这家公司未来的收益将比现在高两倍，但哪怕未来光明，这种市盈率也太高了。
This was particularly because, back then, companies were using stock options as the reward mechanism. You gave somebody enough stock to buy them a summer place. Next thing you know, they have 10 summer places. They have a hard time getting to them all. The person who comes in later, they have zero summer places, because the assumption of that future growth is already built in. That’s the time we moved away from using stock options as a big part of our compensation.
特别是因为，在当时，公司用股票期权作为奖励机制。你给一些人的股票足够让他们买下一处避暑别墅。然后你发现，他们有10处避暑别墅。他们很难把所有地方都去到。来晚的人一处避暑别墅都没有，因为对未来增长的假设已经确立。那时起我们就不再把股票期权作为薪酬中的一大块了。
What’s your take of Alibaba as a company, and beyond that, the role China is playing in a global, digital world?
你怎么看待阿里巴巴(Alibaba)作为一家公司的表现，以及中国在全球数字化市场中扮演的角色？
It will be interesting to see as the Western champions try to invade China, as they fight over other markets like Indonesia and India, and as the Chinese companies try to enter the US, how successful they’ll be. So far, they haven’t had much success. Unless they really change the rules of the game, it’s tough. For Baidu to take on Google in search is not an easy thing, which I know from personal experience.
当西方的冠军企业试图打入中国市场，当它们为印尼和印度等其他市场打得不可开交，以及当中国企业试图进入美国市场时，见证它们会取得多大的成功，将是件很有趣的事。迄今为止，它们还未取得太大成功。除非它们真的改变游戏规则，否则很难。对百度(Baidu)来说，想要在搜索领域叫板谷歌(Google)并非易事，这是我从个人经历中了解到的。
Do Chinese companies need to change their corporate governance as they go global?
在走向全球市场时，中国企业需要改变它们的企业治理吗？
Does Rupert Murdoch need to change his corporate governance? I’m not sure corporate governance is the key indicator of future success in all industries. These are world-class companies doing world-class research.
鲁珀特•默多克(Rupert Murdoch)需要改变他的企业治理吗？我不确定企业治理是否是在所有行业获得未来成功的关键因素。这些是做着世界一流研究的世界一流企业。
Can you share some of the lessons of pain and failure from your early career?
你能分享下事业早期得到的一些痛苦和失败的教训吗？
My basic theory in my twenties is that IQ was fungible. I would hire a great physicists, biologists, someone who was smart, and I would assign them some task, and they would figure out how to do because they have a high IQ.
20多岁时，我的基本理论是智商是可代替的。我可以聘请优秀的物理学家、生物学家和其他聪明人，我会给他们派一些任务，他们会想出完成任务的办法，因为他们的智商都很高。
I basically thought that I should never ask somebody to work for somebody who is not smarter than them. We’ll just have this IQ hierarchy. Well that didn’t work for very long. By age 25, I realised IQ comes in different forms. These guys who understand sales and management, that seems to come negatively correlated with IQ. That was befuddling to me.
基本上，我过去认为永远不应该让人们给不如他们聪明的人工作。我们会有这种智商等级制度。不过，这种想法没能维持很长时间。25岁时，我发现智商有不同的表现形式。一些人懂得销售和管理，而这似乎跟智商是负相关的。这让我感到困惑。
Your foundation is called the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundations. If you hadn’t married Melinda, do you think this is the way your career would have developed?
你的基金会名为“比尔和梅琳达•盖茨基金会”。如果你没有娶梅琳达，你觉得自己的事业还会发展到像现在一样吗？
When Melinda and I first met, we talked about how getting this wealth back to society in some intelligent way was one of the responsibilities we had in a life together. There’s no doubt her thinking has massively shaped what we thought about the Foundation.
当我和梅琳达初次见面时，我们谈论的是以某种聪明的方式让财富回归社会，如何是我们共同生活中的责任之一。毫无疑问，她的想法极大地塑造了我们对基金会的想法。
