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Greece’s No vote was greeted with euphoria in Athens’s Syntagma Square: the fountains were bathed in red light, the flags waved, the crowds sang patriotic songs. Alexis Tsipras, the prime minister, had said the vote was about national pride and his message had struck home. One young woman, a freelance journalist, confided: “I actually voted Yes. But part of me is glad Greece said No. We are a small country, but we have a big history. This is about our dignity.”
希腊的“反对”投票结果在雅典的宪法广场(Syntagma Square)受到人群的热烈欢呼：喷泉沐浴着红光，人们挥舞着旗帜，高唱着爱国歌曲。希腊总理亚历克西斯•齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)曾表示这场公投关乎国家自豪感，这一说法深入人心。一名身为自由职业记者的年轻女子透露：“我实际上投了‘支持’票。但我内心的一部分乐于看到希腊说‘不’。我们是个小国，但我们的历史源远流长。这关乎我们的尊严。”
Watching the celebrations, however, it was hard not to feel real foreboding. Without a quick new deal with the creditors, Greek banks could collapse within days, introducing the country to a whole new level of economic misery. Pride and dignity would swiftly disappear along with jobs and savings.
然而，看着这场庆祝时，观察者很难不产生真切的不祥预感。在无法与债权人迅速达成新协议的情况下，希腊银行业可能在几天内崩溃，使这个国家的经济苦难沉入新的谷底。自豪和尊严将很快伴随着就业和储蓄一同消失。
Mr Tsipras has told his fellow countrymen that he can get a better deal from Europe. But, if he really believes that, he is seriously misreading EU politics. In reality, Greece’s creditors are likely to take a very hard line. They are angry and fed up with Greece. More important, many also believe that the long-term survival of the European single currency depends on making it clear that countries must live by common rules, balance their budgets and pay their debts. If Greece needs to be punished to make that point, so be it.
齐普拉斯告诉其国民称，他能够从欧洲得到一份更好的协议。但是，如果他果真如此认为，那他就严重误判了欧盟(EU)的政治。现实是，希腊的债权人很可能采取非常强硬的立场。它们怒不可遏，对希腊厌烦至极。更重要的是，很多人还认为欧元区的长期生存有赖于表明所有成员国必须遵守共同规则，平衡本国预算并且偿还债务。如果需要用惩罚希腊来表明这一点，那就这样吧。
The tragedy is that both the Greek government and their creditors are now misreading their own interests. The Greeks still insist that they want to stay inside the European single currency — despite the mounting evidence that it has been a disaster for their economy. The leaders of the eurozone feel that they must be tough with Greece, to discourage other potential rule-breakers.
悲剧在于，希腊政府及其债权人两方面都看不清自己的利益。希腊人仍然坚持称他们希望留在欧元区内——尽管越来越多的证据表明单一货币对该国经济是一场灾难。欧元区的领导人觉得自己必须强硬对待希腊，以此震慑其他可能破坏规则的国家。
In reality, both Greece and the rest of the eurozone should treat the Greek vote as an opportunity to rethink the malfunctioning euro project. They can find a common interest in making it as painless as possible for Greece to leave the euro — both to lessen the suffering of ordinary Greek people and to establish a model that other countries might be able to follow in the future. For Greece is not the only country struggling to cope with a currency union. The current crisis could be a chance to show there are ways out of the euro that could benefit all sides — those that leave the currency union and those that stay
事实上，希腊及欧元区都应该把希腊公投视为一个反思运转不佳的欧元项目的机会。让希腊尽可能无痛苦地离开欧元区，符合双方的共同利益——既能减轻希腊普通人的苦难，又建立一个未来其他国家也许能够效仿的模式。因为希腊并未唯一一个疲于应付货币联盟的国家。当前的危机可以成为一个机会——表明有一些退出欧元区的方式可能使各方（无论是离开货币联盟的国家还是继续留在其中的国家）受益。
For the moment, however, all that eurozone leaders can see is the dangers of making any moves that appear to “reward” Mr Tsipras. They know that there are many heavily-indebted countries in Europe and do not want to encourage the idea that countries can avoid the hard work of getting their national finances in order, in the hope that one day, a debt write-off might come to their rescue. Greece’s national debt as a share of its economy is currently 178 per cent — the largest in the EU. But Italy’s debt-to-output ratio is more than 130 per cent. Even France is closing in on 100 per cent, the figure that Greece was at when the markets first took fright in 2009.
然而，如今欧元区领导人看得见的只是采取任何看似“便宜”齐普拉斯的举动所带来的危险。他们知道欧洲有很多债台高筑的国家，因而不想鼓励这样的想法——相关国家可以逃避修复国家财政的艰苦工作，只盼着有一天债务减记会解救他们。目前希腊公共债务占经济的比例为178%——是欧盟债务负担最重的国家。但是意大利的债务与产出之比也超过了130%。甚至法国也接近100%，这是希腊2009年第一次惊吓市场时的水平。
There is a similar fear of the political consequences of allowing an anti-austerity party to triumph in Greece. Countries such as Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy have all made painful cuts in an effort to restore their public finances. The governments of all four countries have Syriza-style, populist parties breathing down their necks. The last thing they want is for Syriza to be seen to succeed. Indeed, the grim truth is that they actually have a vested interest in seeing Greece suffer — as a warning to their own voters, not to take the route of left-wing populism.
让一个反紧缩政党在希腊获得胜利，其政治后果也令人忧虑。爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利等国为恢复公共财政都采取了痛苦的紧缩措施。这四国的政府都面临着类似于希腊激进左翼联盟(Syriza)的民粹主义政党的虎视眈眈。它们最不希望看到的就是激进左翼联盟被视为成功典范。的确，严酷的事实在于，利益决定着它们乐于看到希腊受苦受难——以此警告本国选民不要走上左翼民粹主义的道路。
In other EU countries, such as Finland, Germany or the Netherlands, it is right-wingers — who opposed the original bailouts for Greece and warned that the money would never be repaid — that stand to gain if Syriza is seen to triumph. Here too, the political incentives all point towards European leaders taking a hard line.
在芬兰、德国和荷兰等其他欧盟国家，如果激进左翼联盟被视为胜利，那么坐收渔利的将是右翼政党（他们反对当初对希腊的纾困，并警告称希腊永远不会偿还债务）。这里也一样，所有的政治动机都会指向欧洲领导人采取强硬态度。
To these factors must be added sheer irritation. Yanis Varoufakis, who as finance minister compared Greece’s creditors to terrorists, has now resigned. But even Mr Tsipras accused them of being conservative extremists, blackmailing Greece. Just as Greeks feel humiliated to be told they are deadbeats and debtors, so the Germans feel enraged to lend Greece money — only to be called Nazis in the Greek media.
此外还应加上纯粹恼怒的因素。把债权人比作恐怖分子的希腊财长亚尼斯•瓦鲁法基斯(Yanis Varoufakis)已经辞职。但是齐普拉斯本人也曾指责债权人是保守的极端主义分子，勒索希腊。就像希腊人对于被称为“无赖”或欠债人感到羞辱一样，德国人对于把钱借给希腊，到头来却被希腊媒体称为“纳粹”感到义愤填膺。
The danger, however, is that anger and a fear of setting a bad example are leading EU nations to take too narrow a view of the consequences of Greek failure. It may be the EU is right to believe that financial contagion from a Grexit can be contained. But the political costs would be very high. A Greece that slips into economic chaos could easily turn into a failed state within the EU. That, in turn, would further discredit the European project — at a time when it is under pressure from all sides.
然而，危险在于，愤怒以及对于确立糟糕先例的担忧，将引导欧盟国家对希腊失败的后果抱有过于狭隘的视野。欧盟相信希腊退出欧元区的金融传染能够得到遏制，这或许是对的。但政治代价将非常高。希腊如果滑入经济混乱，将很容易变成欧盟内的一个失败国家。这进而将使“欧洲项目”进一步丧失信誉——这项事业正受到各方面的压力。
If European leaders were thinking clearly, they should see that rather than punishing Greece, it is now in the EU’s interests to do its level best to make sure that Greece can leave the euro, but stay inside the EU with a minimum of pain. If that means giving Greece debt relief as part of the exit package, so be it. Debt relief, in return for Grexit, could make political as well as economic sense.
如果欧洲领导人能想明白，他们应当看到，目前符合欧盟利益的，不是惩罚希腊，而是竭尽全力确保希腊以最少的痛苦离开欧元区，但留在欧盟。如果这意味着对希腊减免债务是退出欧元区方案的一部分，那么只好如此。以债务减免换取希腊退出欧元区，可能在政治和经济上都是合情合理的。
Even so, restoring the drachma in Greece without provoking an even more intense economic crisis will be very difficult. But, if it could be done, the EU may finally have a model for liberating other European nations from a malfunctioning euro.
即便如此，希腊也将很难重启德拉克马而不引发一场甚至更严重的经济危机。但是，如果这一退出形式可行，那么欧盟或许终于有了一个将其他欧洲国家从运转失灵的欧元中解放出来的模式。
