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Economists are more bearish on the China than at any time since the global financial crisis, highlighting the challenge for policymakers as they seek to arrest a slowdown in the country’s economy.
如今经济学家看淡中国的情绪比全球金融危机以来的任何时候都强烈，这突显出了政策制定者在试图止住中国经济放缓势头之际面临的挑战。
Analysts expect gross domestic product figures due out next Monday to show real growth at 6.7 per cent for the third quarter, lower than the official full-year target of “around 7 per cent”, according to a Bloomberg survey of 25 economists. Official data showed real growth at 7 per cent in both the first and second quarters this year.
彭博(Bloomberg)对25位经济学家的调查显示，分析师们预测，定于下周一出炉的国内生产总值(GDP)数据将显示，中国经济在第三季度实际增长6.7%，低于官方为全年设定的“7%左右”的目标。官方数据显示，今年第一季度和第二季度中国经济的实际增速均为7%。
The assessments come amid growing questions over the depth of China’s slowdown and the reliability of the country’s economic numbers.
上述评估是在中国经济放缓程度和中国经济数据可靠性引起越来越多质疑的背景下做出的。
“We expect the upcoming...3 data to show real GDP growth sliding to 6.6 per cent year-on-year, weighed down by continued property destocking, stumbling industrial activity, shrinking stock market turnover and weak exports,” UBS China economist Harrison Hu wrote.
瑞银(UBS)中国经济学家胡志鹏(Harrison Hu)写道：“我们预测，受房地产业继续去库存、工业活动步履蹒跚、股市成交量萎缩和出口疲弱影响，即将公布的……第三季度数据将显示GDP增速滑落至同比增长6.6%。”
The latest survey marks the biggest gap between forecast and target since the first quarter of 2009, when the Chinese economy grew at 6.2 per cent, far below the full-year target of 8 per cent. However, China’s huge economic stimulus programme unveiled in late 2008 succeeded in raising full-year growth to 9.2 per cent.
这项最新调查显示，预测值与官方目标之间的差距为2009年第一季度以来的最大值。2009年第一季度，中国经济增速为6.2%，远远低于那一年8%的全年目标。然而，2008年末中国推出的大规模经济刺激计划成功将2009年全年增速推升到9.2%。
The number of economists who responded to Bloomberg’s third-quarter survey, at 26, is sharply below the 39 respondents in the second quarter and 54 in the third quarter of 2014. The decline raises the prospect that some economists may not want to be publicly associated with bearish forecasts.
对彭博第三季度调查作出回应的经济学家为26位，远远低于第二季度的39位和2014年第三季度的54位。这种下滑或许意味着，一些经济学家可能不想与悲观预测公开牵扯在一起。
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group has the lowest forecast at 6.4 per cent, while UBS and ING Asia expect 6.5 per cent growth. With the exception of one apparently erroneous prediction of 20 per cent growth, all of the surveyed economists expect growth to fall short of 7 per cent. Forecasts from Morgan Stanley and Société Générale were the next most optimistic, at 6.9 per cent.
澳新银行(ANZ)给出的预测值最低，为6.4%；荷兰国际集团亚洲(ING Asia)的预测为6.5%。除去一个明显错误的预测值（20%），所有受访经济学家给出的预测值都低于7%。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和法国兴业银行(Société Générale)给出的预测值是第二乐观的，为6.9%。
Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for China’s statistics bureau, said last month that he believed growth as low as 6.5 could be considered as “around” 7 per cent. Even if full-year growth hits the 7 per cent target, it will mark the slowest full-year growth in a quarter of a century.
中国国家统计局发言人盛来运上月表示，他认为不低于6.5%的增速可被视为“大约”7%。即便全年增速达到7%的目标，也将成为25年来最慢的全年增速。
Economists say that while China is mired in a cyclical slowdown due to oversupply in the property sector and weak external demand for Chinese exports, even a reversal of those headwinds will be sufficient to return the country to the double-digit growth rates of the mid-2000s. Structural factors such as a shrinking labour force mean growth is bound to slow.
经济学家表示，尽管由于房地产行业供应过剩和中国出口产品外部需求疲弱，中国正陷入周期性放缓，但这些不利趋势即便只是逆转，也足以让中国回到2000年代中期的两位数增速。劳动力减少等结构性因素意味着，增速注定会放缓。
Policymakers have rolled out a series of targeted stimulus measures in recent weeks, including cutting downpayment requirements for mortgages and approving more infrastructure spending. At the same time they are working on longer-term structural reforms, including an overhaul of state-owned enterprises.
最近几周，政策制定者推出了一系列定向刺激举措，包括下调抵押贷款首付比例和批准更多基础设施投资。同时，他们正致力于长期结构性改革，包括改革国有企业。
