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明星经理人救不了雅虎 Buffett not Jobs is needed

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明星经理人救不了雅虎

Remember the line about the manager with a reputation for brilliance taking on a business with a reputation for poor economics? It is usually the reputation of the business that emerges intact.

还记得那句关于一位声名卓著的管理者接管一家财务状况声名狼藉的公司的名言吗?通常来说,不变的是那家公司的名声。

Few companies have gone further than Yahoo in demonstrating the truth of Warren Buffett’s amusing dictum. Over the past three and a half years, the ailing US internet company has to all intents and purposes bet the ranch on an attempt to revive its fortunes under the leadership of the Silicon Valley superstar, Marissa Mayer.

没有几家公司比雅虎(Yahoo)更能证明沃伦巴菲特(Warren Buffett)这条有趣格言的正确性。过去三年半,这家每况愈下的美国互联网公司实际上赌上了全部家当,希望在硅谷巨星梅里莎蔠尔(Marissa Mayer)的领导下重振雄风。

Nothing has been too much for the ex-Google executive. Billions of dollars have been lavished on takeovers and the financing of new product development. Ms Mayer’s eye-popping package alone could end up paying her more than $250m if she stays till next year.

这位谷歌(Google)的前高管从来不嫌多。数十亿美元资金被挥霍在收购和新产品研发上。如果明年梅尔还在任的话,单单她那令人瞠目的薪酬方案最终就能使她拿到超过2.5亿美元。

The reward for shareholders was supposed to come through Ms Mayer engineering a revival of Yahoo’s tired brand, repurposing it for the mobile age and launching a host of cool new apps. Yet while there has been activity a plenty, there is little of value to show for it. Fast forward to the present and Yahoo’s core internet business is still declining. Revenues are down by 9 per cent since 2012, and the company is once again leaking talented staff.

股东们原本应该从梅尔的一系列举措——重振雅虎过气品牌、调整发展方针以适应移动时代,以及发布一系列炫酷的新app——中得到回报。不过,尽管梅尔动作不少,但是几乎没有什么值得展示的成果。眼下,雅虎核心的互联网业务仍然在日趋衰落。自2012年以来,雅虎收入下滑9%,该公司正再一次经历人才流失。

A rising share price — the product of dramatic growth in the value of Yahoo’s stake in the Chinese internet firm Alibaba — cannot conceal the malaise afflicting the underlying business. Indeed, sum-of-the-parts analyses tend to suggest that Ms Mayer’s activities have come at a heavy net cost to Yahoo’s shareholders.

股价上涨——得益于雅虎所持中国互联网公司阿里巴巴(Alibaba)股份的大幅升值——无法掩盖其根本业务的萎靡不振。事实上,加总分析往往表明,梅尔的运筹使雅虎股东付出了沉重的代价。

Back out the value of the Alibaba stake, a minority shareholding in Yahoo Japan, and some cash and securities, and the core business is notionally valued at a negative $14bn — down more than $20bn from the $7bn-odd it was worth on the same basis when she was appointed. The brutal maths may also explain why Ms Mayer is flogging many of the shares she receives under her contract almost at the moment of vesting. According to the Equilar database she has sold stock worth some $50m to date.

除去阿里巴巴股份的价值、在日本雅虎(Yahoo Japan)所持的少数股份以及一些现金和证券,其核心业务的名义价值为负140亿美元——比梅尔上任时的70多亿美元减少了逾200亿美元。这道残酷的算术题或许也解释了梅尔为何刚拿到按合同规定应得的公司股票后便大量出售。根据Equilar的数据,她迄今已经出售了价值5000万美元左右的股票。

As the public temperature rises about Yahoo’s future, outsiders have predictably rounded on Ms Mayer, blaming her for the company’s poor performance. She has been accused of arrogance, waste and poor management. The real fault however lies with Yahoo’s board.

在人们对雅虎的未来议论纷纷之际,局外人不出意外地将矛头对准梅尔,指责她造成了雅虎业绩欠佳。人们指责她傲慢、浪费、管理不善。然而,真正有错的是雅虎董事会。

It was always a dicey strategy, bringing in a star manager to attempt a complete corporate reboot. These things rarely come off — especially in Silicon Valley. It is not easy to behave like a footloose start up when you also have billions of dollars in legacy income to nurture. In any case, if there is a brilliant idea out there, a venture capitalist will most likely get to it first.

引入明星经理人以图彻底重振企业始终是一种冒险策略。这类行动很少能成功——特别是在硅谷。在拥有数十亿美元遗留收入要管理的情况下,很难像自由自在的初创企业一样行事。无论如何,如果确实有什么高招卓见,那风险投资者很可能第一个找上门来。

But the board also compounded the risk by the deal it struck with Ms Mayer. This was not simply extraordinarily lavish. It was also largely unconnected to the value of the core business she was managing. All of the $13bn increase in the group’s market value since 2012 has come from its ownership of minority stakes in other businesses — not least the shareholding in Alibaba. Ms Mayer has benefited richly therefore, even as she has done little to revive Yahoo’s own internet business.

雅虎董事会与梅尔达成的协议更是加剧了其中的风险。该协议并非只是格外大方,而且还与她管理的核心业务的价值基本不沾边。自2012年以来雅虎增加的130亿美元市值,全部来自于其在其他公司持有的少数股份——特别是在阿里巴巴持有的股份。因此梅尔收益丰厚,即便她没采取什么有效措施使雅虎自己的互联网业务复苏。

Yahoo would have done better had it heeded Mr Buffett and adopted a more modest course. Silicon Valley is dotted with companies like Yahoo, no longer at the forefront of events but still possessed of sizeable audiences. By cutting out expensive innovation, declining search engines such as Ask.com jog on quietly turning a profit. With its still large audience and $4bn in annual revenue, Yahoo could have done the same.

如果当初雅虎听取了巴菲特的格言、采取更温和的路线,它本可以做得更好。硅谷多的是雅虎这样的企业——它们不再是焦点,但是仍然拥有规模可观的用户。通过停止昂贵的创新,Ask.com等日益衰落的搜索引擎已经悄然实现盈利。在仍然拥有大量用户和40亿美元年收入的情况下,雅虎也能做到这一点。

Having bet the company’s future on the hope that Ms Mayer was some sort of latter day Steve Jobs, Yahoo now faces some hard decisions. The best way forward is to embrace the inevitable break up of the group’s structure.

由于将公司的未来寄希望于梅尔成为第二个史蒂夫吠布斯(Steve Jobs),雅虎如今面临着一些艰难的抉择。最好的出路是进行看来不可避免的资产分拆。

True, a shrunken Yahoo comprised mainly of its core business would not obviously have the resources to attract a capitalist with the appetites of Ms Mayer. But that is far from a disaster. Yahoo needs to curb the habits it developed under its famous boss for spending richly on acquisitions, wages and product development. Instead, it needs to focus on wringing the most cash from its existing assets. Headcount and wage costs need to fall fast.

诚然,主要由核心业务构成的缩水版雅虎显然没有资源可以吸引有着梅尔这样胃口的资本家。但是这绝非灾难。雅虎需要控制住在其明星老板手下养成的在收购、薪水和产品研发上大肆挥霍的习惯。如今它的重点应该是从其现有资产中挤出尽可能多的现金。应该迅速削减员工总数和薪资成本。

There is a moral here for other mature tech companies. Don’t reach for the Steve Jobs solution; the idea that rebirth is just one superstar manager away. While it may produce a short-term price bump, the cost of such individuals is rarely justified by the results they deliver. Much better to do the simple things: stick to the knitting, cut costs, and live to fight another day

其他成熟科技企业可以从中吸取一条教训。不要总想着找到第二个乔布斯,也不要相信只要有一个明星经理人就能实现企业复兴。尽管这可能会带来短期的股价上涨,但是这些人所取得的结果很少能证明启用他们的代价是值得的。还不如把几件简单的事情做好:专心做自己的事情、削减成本、活下去继续拼杀。

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关键字: 雅虎 明星经理人

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