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As the International Monetary Fund’s watchdog, José Viñals has spent many sleepless nights since he took up his post in 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis.
作为国际货币基金组织(IMF)负责监管的官员，何塞•比尼亚尔斯(José Viñals)自2009年全球金融危机爆发后上任以来，度过了很多不眠之夜。
But even though the IMF’s latest financial stability report sets out growing risks on several fronts, Mr Viñals is resting easier than in the past — because, he says, the world is now better prepared for such challenges.
但是，即便IMF最新的《金融稳定报告》(Global Financial Stability Report)指出多个领域存在日益加剧的风险，比尼亚尔斯如今也比之前睡得更好了，这是因为，他称，全球如今对此类挑战准备得更充分了。
“When I came [to the IMF], and for a few years after that, I wasn’t sleeping so well at night,” the former Spanish central banker said in an interview.
“在我来（IMF）时，以及之后几年时间内，我晚上都睡不大好，”这位西班牙央行前行长在接受采访时表示。
“Now I still wake up once in a while but that’s all.”
“现在我仍然偶尔夜里会醒，但仅此而已。”
The risks outlined by the fund’s semi-annual Global Financial Stability Report, released yesterday, range from slow growth and weak commodity prices to concerns about the health of European banks and worsening Chinese corporate balance sheets.
IMF昨日发布的《全球金融稳定报告》勾勒出一系列风险，从增长放缓、大宗商品价格低迷，到有关欧洲银行业健康状况以及中国企业资产负债表状况日益恶化的担忧。IMF的《全球金融稳定报告》每半年发布一次。
The report hammers home the IMF’s call for governments to step up their response to such problems or to risk losing the markets’ confidence, as already seemingly occurred earlier this year.
该报告极力强调，IMF呼吁各国政府加强应对此类问题，否则可能失去市场信心，就像今年早些时候似乎已经出现的情况一样。
But Mr Viñals, director of the fund’s monetary and capital markets department, argued that the world is not facing the threat of a replay of the 2008 financial crisis. The challenge is instead to avoid the lacklustre rates of growth he and others at the fund label the “new mediocre”.
但是，主管IMF货币和资本市场部门的比尼亚尔斯认为，全球如今并未面临2008年金融危机重演的威胁。相反，挑战在于避免出现经济增长乏力的情况，比尼亚尔斯及IMF其他官员将之定义为“新平庸”。
He added: “Yes, there are risks and there is work to do.
他补充称：“没错，现在确实有风险，也有工作要做。
“But let’s not lose sight that a lot of work has been done and that the global financial system is a lot more resilient than it used to be. Everywhere.”
“但是，不要忽视我们已经完成许多工作，此外全球金融体系抵御冲击的能力比过去强得多。世界各地都是这样。”
China is beginning to address concerns over its corporate debt problems, emerging markets more generally are preparing for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again and Italy is finding new ways to support its banks.
中国已开始应对外界对其公司债务问题的关切，整个新兴市场正在为美联储(Fed)再次加息做准备，同时意大利正在寻找支撑其银行业的新办法。
“We’re not talking about the world being on the verge of another crisis, not at all,” Mr Viñals said.
“我们并不是在说全球即将迎来另一场危机，完全不是，”比尼亚尔斯称。
“What we’re talking about is that there is a chance that can be avoided, that should be avoided, of falling into this new mediocre growth which is not good for anybody. Fortunately we are not there. But we don’t want to get there, which is why action is needed now.”
“我们在说的是，有可能、也应该避免一场导致世界陷入这种新平庸增长的危机，这样的增长对任何人都没有好处。幸运的是，我们现在并未落入那种局面。但是我们不希望局势发展到那一步，因此现在需要采取行动。”
Mr Viñals said this year’s financial turmoil in both developed and emerging economies — which he describes as a “perfect storm” — served as a reminder of the cost of not addressing concerns that have lingered on eight years after the financial crisis.
比尼亚尔斯称，今年发达经济体和发展中经济体均出现的金融动荡（他形容这场金融动荡为“完美风暴”）提醒了大家，不应对这些在金融危机爆发8年后依然存在的担忧，会导致怎样的代价。
The latest financial stability report seeks to calculate the cost of such potential neglect. It sets out a scenario in which government inaction contributes to a 20 per cent fall in global equity markets over two years as current levels of slow growth become entrenched.
最新的这份《金融稳定报告》力图计算出这种潜在忽视的代价。报告设定了一种情景：政府不作为会导致全球股市在两年时间内下跌20%，目前这种低增长水平还会变得根深蒂固。
It estimates that such an episode would have a cumulative cost of 3.9 per cent of global output — the equivalent of more than a year of growth.
它估计，这种情况将累计造成全球经济产出损失3.9%——相当于比一年的增长值还多。
Some of the numbers in the IMF report are particularly daunting. By the fund’s calculations 14 per cent of China’s corporate debt — some $1.3tn — is owed by companies that earn less each year than they need to make their interest payments.
此份报告的一些数据令人格外沮丧。根据IMF的计算，中国公司债务——约1.3万亿美元——的14%是由每年营收不足以支付利息的企业所欠。
That figure has grown substantially over the past five years and, were Chinese banks forced to absorb the loss from all those loans going bad, it would be a hit equivalent to 7 per cent of gross domestic product. But Beijing is beginning to address the problem by encouraging debt-for-equity swaps and other measures, Mr Viñals said, and has plenty of capacity to do so. The risk is “manageable, but it needs to be managed properly”.
过去五年，该比例大幅增长，如果中国的银行被迫要承担所有不良贷款的损失，这将相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的7%。但是，比尼亚尔斯称，北京方面已经开始鼓励通过债转股等措施解决该问题，并且有足够能力这样做。风险“可控，但是需要妥善处理”。
Mr Viñals also suggested that the US Federal Reserve’s plans to raise rates are less of a concern for global financial stability than they were last year, ahead of the Fed’s first increase for almost a decade.
比尼亚尔斯还表示，今年美联储的加息计划对全球金融稳定的影响低于去年该行加息之前。美联储去年的加息是该行近十年来的首次。
That, he said, is largely thanks to the Fed’s better communications in the lead-up to the move. But many emerging economies had also adjusted, by moving to floating exchange regimes and building up their capital buffers, and are better prepared for the potential impact, he said.
他表示，这主要归功于美联储在采取行动之前更好地进行沟通。不过，他称，很多新兴经济体也已经通过采取浮动汇率制度以及巩固资本缓冲垫进行了调整，对美联储加息的冲击准备得更充分了。
“I think the taper tantrum was something that was very useful for everyone to learn,” Mr Viñals added, referring to the 2013 market ructions many emerging economies endured after the Fed unveiled plans to reel in its large scale asset purchases.
比尼亚尔斯还表示，“我认为‘削减恐慌’(taper tantrum)非常值得每个人学习。”他指的是，2013年美联储宣布逐步退出大规模资产购买的计划后，很多新兴经济体经历的市场动荡。
He is also relatively sanguine about the potential impact of negative interest rates by central banks in Europe and Japan, despite criticism that such policies may undermine consumer spending and damage banks’ profitability.
他对欧洲和日本央行实行的负利率的潜在影响也相对乐观，尽管有批评称此类政策可能削弱消费者支出并损害银行业的盈利能力。
“Although the experience of negative nominal interest rates is short, overall they help deliver additional monetary stimulus and easier financial conditions, which support demand and price stability,” Mr Viñals said.
“尽管负名义利率实施的时间较短，但是总体来看，它们有助于提供额外的货币刺激、放宽资金状况，这为需求和稳定的价格提供了支撑，”比尼亚尔斯表示。
“Even if there are limits on how far and for how long negative policy rates can go, I still believe that they are a net positive for the economy.”
“尽管负政策利率的下调空间和持续时间都存在限度，但我仍然认为负利率对经济利大于弊。”
