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As the Gujarat Lions cruised to an easy win over the Kolkata Knight Riders, Tim Cook stood on the edge of the pitch expressing his newfound love for Indian cricket. “I’m totally hooked . . . it’s so exciting here,” Apple's chief executive said, midway through his first visit to the country this month.
就在古吉拉特雄师队(Gujarat Lions)轻松取胜加尔各答骑士队(Kolkata Knight Riders)时，蒂姆•库克(Tim Cook)站在球场边表达着自己对印度板球新萌发的热爱。“我完全被迷住了……这里太令人兴奋了，”这位苹果(Apple)首席执行官5月在首次造访印度时说。
Mr Cook’s cricket outing may have been in part a publicity stunt, but he has good reason to seek a better understanding of Indian culture. The country has become a conspicuous source of growth for Apple, which said iPhone sales there increased by 56 per cent in the first quarter of this year, even as they fell globally for the first time.
库克的板球行在某种程度上或许是宣传伎俩，但是他有很好的理由去尝试更好地理解印度文化。印度已经成为了苹果的一个突出增长来源——今年第一季度，就在iPhone全球销量首次同比下降之际，印度iPhone销量增长56%。
In fact, world smartphone sales as a whole suffered their first fall in the same period, according to research by Canalys, but India’s market again stood out, notching up an overall 12 per cent increase as millions of people made the switch from basic feature phones.
事实上，据Canalys研究显示，同期全球智能手机整体销量经历了首次下跌。但是，印度市场再次异军突起：随着数百万人从功能手机转而使用智能手机，印度智能手机总销量增长了12%。
Mr Cook’s visit has put the spotlight on what is now “the most important country in the smartphone market”, according to a Morgan Stanley report last month, which predicted that by next year sales in India would be second only to China and boast a higher growth rate.
库克此行让人们关注起印度。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)4月的报告称，如今印度是“智能手机市场里最重要的国家”。报告预测，明年印度智能手机销量将位列全球第二，仅次于中国，增长率还有望更高。
But in some respects India is more challenging than any other big market on which Apple has set its sights.
但是，在某些方面，印度比苹果迄今看中的所有其他大型市场都更富有挑战性。
Competition is heating up, with a growing crowd of Chinese players including Lenovo, Xiaomi and Huawei taking on the established leaders — South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and entrenched local brands such as Micromax.
竞争正在升温。联想(Lenovo)、小米(Xiaomi)和华为(Huawei)等越来越多的中国选手一方面正在挑战韩国三星电子(Samsung Electronics)老牌领军企业，另一方面还在挑战Micromax等根基深厚的印度本土品牌。
Per capita income of $1,617 last year, compared with China’s $7,990, means the iPhone is beyond the means of the vast majority of Indians. Analysts put its national market share at no more than 2 per cent.
与中国7990美元的人均国民收入相比，印度去年人均国民收入仅为1617美元，这意味着iPhone超出了绝大多数印度人的价格承受范围。分析师认为iPhone在印度占据的市场份额不超过2%。
“People in rural towns are buying feature phones at Rs500-Rs1,500 ($7-$22),” says Navkendar Singh, an analyst at IDC, who estimates that smartphones still account for less than half of overall mobile phone sales in India despite the rapid growth. “We don't expect them to make a big jump and start spending a lot of money on telecoms.”
“在农村生活的人们一般购买500至1500卢比（合7至22美元）的功能手机，”IDC分析师纳肯达尔•辛格(Navkendar Singh)表示。他估计，尽管智能手机销量增长迅速，但是在印度手机总销量中的占比仍不足一半。“我们不认为他们会出现飞跃式的变化，开始在通话设备上花大价钱。”
About half of Apple’s handset sales in India in the first quarter of the year were of the almost four year old iPhone 5s, according to Counterpoint Research.
Counterpoint Research表示，今年第一季度苹果在印度售出的iPhone约一半是面世已将近3年的iPhone 5s。
Mr Cook’s recent meeting with Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, gave him a chance to lobby for concessions that would strengthen Apple’s position in this race.
库克最近与印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)的会面，为他提供了一次讨要优待的机会，这会让苹果在这场竞赛中获得更为有利的位置。
The company had been seeking to broaden its appeal to cost-conscious consumers by selling used phones — but the Indian government ruled against that plan this month, after complaints that it would cannibalise domestic phone manufacturing.
该公司此前一直试图通过出售二手手机来扩大自己对注重价格的消费者的吸引力，但是，有人抱怨称这将损害印度本土手机制造业，印度政府5月裁定该计划不得实行。
Anshul Gupta, an analyst at Gartner, says Apple’s eagerness to distribute low-cost iPhones is logical even if it could weigh on margins in the short term. “What matters is the installed base [using Apple’s operating system] . . . some of those will later be upgrading to the high end,” he says.
Gartner分析师安舒尔•古普塔(Anshul Gupta)称，苹果渴望销售低价iPhone是合乎逻辑的，即使这在短期内使利润率承压。“重要的是（使用苹果操作系统的）用户基数……其中一些随后将升级购买更高端产品，”他称。
More than 90 per cent of phone users in India use prepaid SIM cards instead of long-term contracts, which prevents operators from offering the kind of subsidies that have boosted sales of higher-cost handsets elsewhere.
印度逾90%的手机用户都使用预付费SIM卡、而不签订长期合同，这使得运营商无法提供那种在其他地区提振了高价手机销量的补贴。
But Mr Cook argues that opportunities offered by fast 4G networks will boost iPhone sales. Market leader Bharti Airtel launched the first national 4G network last August, which should be followed this year by Reliance Jio, a $16bn telecoms project from Reliance Industries, India’s second-biggest listed company.
但是，库克认为，快速的4G网络带来的机遇将提振iPhone销量。去年8月，印度市场领军企业巴蒂电信(Bharti Airtel)推出了印度首个4G网络，第二个4G网络应该会在今年由Reliance Jio推出——Reliance Jio是印度第二大上市公司信实工业(Reliance Industries)价值160亿美元的电信项目。
“Knowing Reliance, I won’t be surprised if they pick up a few hundred thousand iPhones and subsidise them for the marketing impact,” says Jayant Kolla, co-founder of Convergence Catalyst, a telecoms consultancy.
“以我对信实的了解，如果他们为了营销效果而入手几十万部iPhone并为其提供补贴，我不会感到意外，”电信咨询公司Convergence Catalyst的共同创始人贾扬特•科拉(Jayanth Kolla)称。
Apple’s recent growth in India has come largely at the expense of Samsung. According to CyberMedia Research, Apple’s share of sales in the premium smartphone segment — with prices above Rs30,000 — rose to 44 per cent last year, only 2 percentage points behind the South Korean group.
苹果近来在印度市场的增长，主要损害的是三星的利益。CyberMedia Research数据显示，去年苹果在高端智能手机（售价高于3万卢比）品类的市场份额达到44%，仅比三星少2个百分点。
But Samsung remains the clear leader in India’s overall market, having stemmed sharp falls in market share with its successful Galaxy J range. With features seemingly aimed at Indian consumers — including a special mode for motorbike users that attracted interest in the world’s biggest two-wheeler market — that series also brought improved design at a lower cost than previous models.
但是，就整个印度市场而言，三星仍是毫无争议的领导者，Galaxy J系列的成功让该公司止住了市场份额大幅下滑的局面。该系列有一些看上去专为印度消费者设计的功能（还有一个专为摩托车司机设计的特别型号，旨在吸引这个世界第二大两轮车市场的兴趣），改进了设计，并且价格比老款更低。
Samsung has refused to be part of the widespread discounting of smartphones on ecommerce sites such as Flipkart. “Samsung is one of the few that has preserved price discipline,” Mr Singh says.
三星一直拒绝参与Flipkart等电商平台上流行的智能手机打折促销。“三星是坚守价格纪律的少数厂商之一，”辛格说。
In contrast, Chinese smartphone makers such as Lenovo, Xiaomi and Huawei piggybacked on the distribution infrastructure of ecommerce sites as a low-risk way to enter the Indian market. Xiaomi, for example, targeted India for one of its first forays beyond China, and has launched its phones in the country through a series of promotional events with Flipkart — after each of which the companies have announced that the early stock was sold out in less than 15 seconds.
相比之下，联想、小米和华为等中国智能手机厂商则利用了电商网站的销售平台，作为一条进入印度市场的低风险渠道。例如，小米把印度作为海外布局的首选地之一，通过Flipkart上的一系列推广活动，在印度市场发售自己的手机。每一次推广活动都是开始不到15秒钟，厂商就宣布先期库存已售罄。
Now entrenched as big players — their market share doubled in the year to March to reach nearly one-quarter, says IDC — the Chinese groups are seeking to cement their position by investing in a physical presence, including heavy branding in third-party retail stores.
尽管这些中国厂商如今已经拥有举足轻重的市场地位（IDC表示，在截至今年3月的一年里，中国厂商在印度的市场份额增加了一倍、至近四分之一），但它们仍寻求通过投资于实体业务（比如在第三方零售店进行大规模品牌推广）来巩固自己的地位。
The surge of Chinese imports is putting to the test India’s hopes of developing globally competitive smartphone brands, which still account for about four in 10 phones sold.
印度希望打造在国际上有竞争力的智能手机品牌，而来自中国的进口手机猛增令这一愿望受到考验。目前，印度本土智能手机品牌仍占到印度智能手机总销量的四成。
Local champion Micromax remained the second-biggest producer by volume in the first quarter with 17 per cent market share, according to Canalys, but that figure has been declining.
Canalys数据显示，按销量计，印度本土智能手机领军企业Micromax今年一季度仍是第二大智能手机厂商，占到17%的市场份额，但这个数字一直在下降。
Having lost its chief executive in March, Micromax is now bullishly targeting foreign expansion particularly in former Soviet countries. But it has not done enough to differentiate itself from other Android-based phonemakers, says Mr Kolla. He notes that it and other Indian companies such as Karbonn and Intex are still largely reliant on Chinese contractors and suppliers — even as they shift production to India in response to higher import duties and rising wages in China.
Micromax原首席执行官今年3月离职。该公司如今正积极瞄准对外扩张，尤其是向前苏联国家扩张。但科拉说，该公司的努力还不足以使它从众多安卓系统手机厂商中脱颖而出。他指出，即便在Karbonn、Intex等印度厂商为应对进口关税升高和中国工资上涨，将生产基地搬回印度之际，这些厂商仍然对中国合同商和供货商非常依赖。
Mr Kolla says the opportunity to profit from rapid smartphone adoption in India will not last for ever — for local brands or international competitors. “This growth won’t continue beyond 2018,” he warns. “The rest of the market is flat, and India will get there in a couple of years.”
科拉说，无论是对印度本土品牌还是对它们的国际竞争者而言，印度智能手机迅速普及带来的盈利机会都不会一直存在下去。“这种增速将不会持续到2018年之后，”他警告称，“其他地区的市场已停止增长，印度市场在几年后也将呈现出这种状态。”
