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Pharmaceuticals sales growth in China will continue to outstrip Europe and the US despite the economic slowdown on the mainland, downward pressure on drug prices and compliance challenges following the GlaxoSmithKline corruption scandal, according to the head of Swiss pharma group Novartis.
瑞士制药集团诺华(Novartis)首席执行官江慕忠(Joe Jimenez)表示，中国医药销售增速将继续超过欧洲和美国，尽管中国经济增速放缓、药价面临下调压力，同时在葛兰素史克(GSK)腐败丑闻后面临合规挑战。
“China has the potential over the next 10 years to become a major force in global pharma,” Joe Jimenez, chief executive, told the Financial Times. He was speaking on the eve of the company’s opening of a $1bn global research and development campus in Shanghai — its third global facility alongside R&D centres in Basel and Cambridge, Massachusetts. “China’s going to become very important in R&D in this industry, not in the short term but over the long term,” he said.
江慕忠告诉英国《金融时报》：“未来10年，中国有可能成为全球制药行业的一支主要力量。”他是在诺华在上海投资10亿美元兴建的全球研发园区揭牌之前说这番话的，这是继巴塞尔和马塞诸塞州剑桥研发中心之后，诺华建设的第3个全球研发中心。他表示：“中国将在该行业研发领域变得非常重要，不仅短期如此，长期也是如此。”
The industry has seen a slowdown in China sales growth, falling from double to single digits, “but compare that to how the US or western Europe is growing at maybe 2 to 3 per cent,” he said.
中国药品销售增速出现放缓，从两位数降至个位数，他表示，“但这仍然高于美国或西欧可能在2%至3%的增速。”
“Within 35 years there are going to be 200m more Chinese over the age of 65 than there are now . . . so there will be 340m people over the age of 65. That’s similar to the total population of the US,” he said.
他表示：“35年内，中国65岁以上人群将比现在多出2亿……因此65岁以上人群将达到3.40亿人。这与美国的总人口类似。”
Mr Jimenez’s comments show that although global drug groups face significant hurdles in China — including tougher rules for the pricing of branded generic drugs and a rise in compliance costs after GSK was fined Rmb3bn ($488m) in 2014 — the country remains an essential market for many of them.
江慕忠的言论表明，尽管全球制药集团在中国面临巨大障碍（包括更严格的品牌仿制药定价规则以及在GSK于2014年被罚30亿元人民币（合4.88亿美元）之后合规成本上升），但中国仍然是很多制药集团不可或缺的市场。
China’s combination of a rapidly growing middle class and a large ageing population almost guarantees drug demand for years to come, analysts say.
分析师们表示，中国迅速壮大的中产阶层以及庞大的老龄化人口几乎保证了未来多年的药品需求。
But companies are being squeezed as China tries to extract greater value from its $150bn drugs bill and reform a hospital system whose finances are dependent on pushing pills.
但随着中国试图从1500亿美元的药品支出中获得更多价值，同时改革在资金上依赖推销药品的医院体系，制药公司的利润可能会受到挤压。
