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Economic data released in China last week revealed the government’s two-steps-forward, one-step-back approach to macroeconomic management.
上周发布的经济数据突显了中国政府进两步、退一步的宏观经济管理方式。
While the rest of the world fretted about runaway debt levels in the world’s second-largest economy earlier this year, Chinese economic planners kept their eyes firmly on their target range for gross domestic product growth, set at 6.5 to 7 per cent.
今年早些时候，世界其他地区对中国失控的债务水平表示担忧，但中国经济规划者只紧紧盯着他们设定在6.5%至7%区间的国内生产总值(GDP)增长目标。
With the National Bureau of Statistics reporting three straight quarterly growth figures of 6.7 per cent, the Chinese government does not have to worry about full-year growth falling below 6.5 per cent.
随着中国国家统计局连续三个季度报告6.7%的经济增速，中国政府不必再担心全年增速会低于6.5%。
Instead, it can turn its attention to reining in some of the excesses that made this year’s better than expected growth figures possible.
相反，它可以将注意力转向控制一些过度的指标，这些指标有可能使得今年增速好于预期。
On October 18, a day before the third-quarter GDP growth figure was released, central bank data showed that China’s broadest measure of credit, an aggregate figure referred to as total social financing, rose 11.3 per cent year-on-year in September to Rmb1.72tn.
10月18日，也就是第三季度GDP发布前一天，中国央行数据显示，中国最广义信贷指标——社会融资总量9月份同比增长11.3%，至1.72万亿元人民币。
That was the highest September credit figure on record and well above expectations.
这是有记录以来9月份的最高信贷数据，远高于预期水平。
Of this amount, banks had issued new loans totalling Rmb1.2tn in September, with mortgages accounting for about half of the new lending as property prices continued to bubble over in a number of cities.
在9月份社会融资总量中，银行新增贷款共计1.2万亿元人民币，其中抵押贷款约占新增贷款的一半，原因是很多城市的房地产价格仍在上涨。
China’s stock of outstanding mortgages is now equivalent to almost 25 per cent of GDP, compared with just 15 per cent five years ago.
中国目前的未清偿抵押贷款存量几乎相当于GDP的25%，而5年前这一比例只有15%。
Corporate lending also continued to surge, up more than 13 per cent in September.
企业贷款也持续激增，9月份增长逾13%。
But there are increasing signs that the Chinese government realises credit cannot continue to expand at twice the rate of the underlying economy indefinitely.
但越来越多的迹象表明，中国政府已经认识到信贷不能无限期地以基础经济增速的两倍增长。
Earlier this month the State Council formally approved a debt-for-equity programme intended to relieve some of the financial strain on struggling companies,
本月早些时候，中国国务院正式批准了一项债转股计划，该计划的目的是缓解一些陷入困境的公司的财务压力。
while more than 20 municipal governments introduced emergency measures to cool overheated property markets.
与此同时，20多个城市的政府采取了紧急措施给过热的房地产市场降温。
In these cities, transactions will come down dramatically and prices will moderate, says Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan in Hong Kong.
摩根大通(JPMorgan)驻香港首席中国经济学家朱海斌表示：在这些城市，交易将大幅下滑，价格将趋缓。
More important is the outlook for new home starts, which in turn create demand for everything from concrete to steel.
更重要的是新屋开工的前景，因为新屋开工会拉动对混凝土、钢材等各种材料的需求。
Mr Zhu predicts that nationwide home starts will decline next year, depriving the Chinese economy of one of its most important motors.
朱海斌预计，全国住宅开工率明年将下降，这将使中国经济失去最重要的引擎之一。
The property outlook is especially bad in heavy industrial regions that have been most affected by China’s economic slowdown.
在受中国经济放缓影响最严重的重工业地区，房地产的前景尤其黯淡。
Jeremy Stevens at Standard Bank estimates that the three northeastern provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang have six years of unsold housing inventory — or 25 per cent of the national total.
标准银行(Standard Bank)的杰里米.斯蒂芬斯(Jeremy Stevens)估计，东北三省——辽宁、吉林和黑龙江——的房屋库存（相当于全国总库存的25%）需要六年才能消化。
Those [provinces] are deadweight, Mr Stevens says.
这些（省份）都是沉重的负担，史蒂文斯说，
Construction is not coming back there for a long time.
这里的建筑活动很长一段时间都不会恢复。
Most analysts believe that the short-term consequence of a serious debt-reduction push by the government and a more sluggish real estate sector will be sharply lower growth in the fourth quarter and early next year — potentially below Beijing’s current comfort level of 6.5 per cent.
多数分析人士认为，政府推动的大力缩减债务以及更加低迷的房地产行业在短期内将造成第四季度和明年初经济增速大幅下滑，很可能低于北京当前认为适宜的6.5%的水平。
With a critical leadership transition due at the end of next year, sceptics suspect that the government will simply reopen the credit taps, starting the cycle all over again.
鉴于明年年底将进行关键的领导层换届，怀疑者认为，政府将直接重开信贷闸门，再次开启这一循环。
Government officials argue that their approach buys time for difficult structural reforms to take root and new economic growth engines to emerge.
政府官员辩称，他们采取的方式有利于为开展艰难的结构性改革以及创造新的经济增长引擎争取时间。
They may be proved right.
事实可能证明他们是正确的。
But with economic growth continuing to ratchet down — 6.9 per cent in 2015, 6.7 per cent so far this year — they have less room for manoeuvre with each quarter that passes.
但随着经济增速一路下滑——2015年是6.9%，今年迄今是6.7%——每过去一个季度，他们的回旋余地就变得更少。
