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For an economy often said to be on the brink of collapse, China has been doing rather well. This year, the MSCI China index has delivered a return of 14 per cent, twice that of the MSCI All Countries World. Recent data look set to underpin a continuation of the run.
就一个老被说处于崩溃边缘的经济体而言，中国一直表现得相当好。今年MSCI明晟中国指数(MSCI China index)已上涨14%，是MSCI明晟全球指数(MSCI All Country World)的两倍。近期数据看来也支持这轮上涨持续下去。
Last week, official data showed China’s manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace since 2012. That good news has fed through to 2016 earnings reports. CLSA, a brokerage, notes that four-fifths of the companies that have reported results have met or beaten forecasts. Surprisingly, listed property companies, long a source of concern for high debt levels, realised very strong cash flow, helping to boost dividends. Consensus earnings growth for the current year has been revised up by 2 percentage points.
上周官方数据显示中国制造业活动实现2012年以来最快增速。这一好消息一直延伸到2016年盈利报告。券商里昂证券(CLSA)指出，已公布业绩的公司有五分之四达到或超过预期。令人惊讶的是，长期以来因高债务水平引起担忧的上市房地产公司实现了非常强劲的现金流，有助于提振股息。对本年度盈利增长的共识预期已上调2个百分点。
The improvement is broad based. Dovetailing with data showing factories stopped laying off workers for the first time in five years, consumer trends have been strong. January and February online retail sales rose 31 per cent year on year, defying the norm of a seasonal slowdown. Macau, a weathervane of Chinese consumption, also had a strong start to the year. Even stodgy banks look set for a better 2017 after costs fell across the sector, notes Jefferies.
好转是普遍的。与显示五年来工厂首次停止裁员的数据相呼应，消费趋势一直强劲。1月和2月网络零售额同比增长31%，打破了季节性放缓规律。中国消费风向标澳门今年也有一个强劲开局。杰富瑞(Jefferies)指出，在行业成本整体下降后，就连笨重的银行看来2017年都会有更佳表现。
Those in search of yield could do worse than look to the HSCEI, the index for Hong Kong-listed China shares, where yield is forecast to rise to nearly 4 per cent in 2017 versus 2 per cent for the MSCI. The latter includes more internet companies such as Alibaba, which in their growth phases tend to pay out less. For the HSCEI, the skew towards old economy state-owned enterprises is no longer the drag it was. With capacity reductions and improving demand, earnings at old industrials such as steel and miners have also picked up. And last month China Shenhua Energy, the state-owned coal miner, said it would pay a special dividend, equivalent to a mid-teens yield. With the government pushing more SOEs to pay out, Shenhua will not be the last.
对于寻求收益的人来说，看看恒生中国企业指数（HSCEI，简称国企指数，是追踪香港上市内地企业的指数）是个不错的选择。预计2017年国企指数收益率将上升至近4%，而MSCI指数为2%。后者包括更多互联网企业，比如阿里巴巴(Alibaba)，这类企业在增长阶段派息较少。至于国企指数，对传统经济国有企业的偏重将不再是过去那样的拖累。随着产能减少和需求增加，钢铁、矿业等传统工业的盈利也有所回升。上个月国有煤矿企业中国神华能源(China Shenhua Energy)宣布将派发特别股息，相当于百分之十几的收益率。中国政府正推动更多国企派息，神华能源不会是最后一个。
