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The Chinese can be forgiven for seeking out a reliable ally on their border. With Russia to the north, rival India to the south, an increasingly defiant North Korea to the east and Afghanistan in the throes of turmoil to the west, good neighbours are in short supply. That Pakistan comes closest to what the Chinese like to call an “all weather friend” shows how poor China’s options are.
中国人在边境线上寻找可靠的盟友情有可原。北边是俄罗斯、南边是对手印度、东边是日益肆无忌惮的朝鲜、西边是动荡不断的阿富汗，在这种情况下，好邻居十分短缺。巴基斯坦最接近于被中国称为“全天候朋友”，这表明中国的选择是多么有限。
It is an odd relationship that has been decades in the making. China is consolidating it with billions of dollars in infrastructure and energy investment, military exports and bailout loans to prop up the Pakistani currency. The latter have been worth $1.2bn since last year, underlining the extent to which Islamabad is becoming reliant on Beijing as US patronage wavers. This alliance presents risks for both sides. Meanwhile, the west cannot afford to abandon nuclear-armed Pakistan altogether, as much as it might like to.
这是一种发展了数十年的奇怪关系。中国通过数十亿美元的基础设施和能源投资、军事装备出口以及为支撑巴基斯坦汇率而发放的纾困贷款，不断巩固这种关系。自去年以来，中国向巴基斯坦发放的纾困贷款达到12亿美元，突显了在美国金主动摇之际伊斯兰堡对北京的依赖程度。中巴联盟对双方都构成风险。与此同时，彻底放弃拥有核武器的巴基斯坦是西方承受不起的——尽管西方可能很想这么做。
On the surface the two states have little in common. The Chinese state is strong and its economy is growing. The Pakistani state, apart from the military, is weak and its economic performance disastrous. China is communist and religion is tightly controlled. Pakistan is Islamic and religious fervour is everywhere.
表面上，两国几乎没有什么共同点。中国实力强大，经济不断增长。而巴基斯坦除军事外各方面实力都很弱，其经济表现糟糕透顶。中国是共产主义国家，宗教受到严格控制。巴基斯坦是伊斯兰国家，宗教热情四处洋溢。
Despite this, developing common interests is natural for the two neighbours. The alliance furthers China’s ambition to recreate a Sino-centric Asian order while keeping common rival India on its toes.
尽管如此，发展共同利益对这两个邻国来说是自然而然的事。中巴联盟有助于中国实现重建以中国为中心的亚洲秩序的雄心，同时又让中巴共同的对手印度不敢轻举妄动。
There are drawbacks for Pakistan in becoming too dependent. Its trade deficit with China has doubled in recent years, exacerbating declines in its foreign currency reserves. This has forced the country to seek emergency loans from outside sources — including China — to maintain payments on older loans made in foreign currencies.
对于巴基斯坦而言，过度依赖中国存在一些弊端。近年来，巴基斯坦对华贸易逆差增加了一倍，致使其外汇储备加速流失。这迫使巴基斯坦从外部（包括中国）寻求紧急贷款，以维持偿还以外币计价的旧贷款的能力。
China’s investments, rather than prioritising Pakistan’s development interests, favours its own strategic ones. But it will be Pakistan that has to pay back the loans that fund the projects. China is planning up to $55bn worth of infrastructure and energy projects as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. This will link its west with the Gwadar port in southern Pakistan through railways, roads and energy supply pipelines. Pakistan has also become the biggest importer of Chinese military hardware and has eight submarines on order. The terms of these contracts are not disclosed, making it impossible for Pakistanis to determine whether they are getting value for money.
中国安排投资侧重点的依据是自身的战略利益需求，而非巴基斯坦的发展需求。但巴基斯坦将是不得不偿还项目贷款的一方。中国计划建设价值550亿美元的基础设施和能源项目，作为“中巴经济走廊”(China-Pakistan Economic Corridor)计划的一部分。该计划将通过铁路、公路和能源供应管道把中国西部与巴基斯坦南部的瓜达尔港连接起来。巴基斯坦也已成为中国军事装备最大的进口国，并已订购8艘潜艇。这些合同的具体条款并未透露，使得巴基斯坦人无法判断它们是否物有所值。
Nor is there any guarantee that the projects will be commercially viable. You do not have to look far to find Chinese-backed white elephants. The Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, which struggles to pay staff salaries, is one.
这些项目能否在商业上取得成功也无法打包票。由中国出资建设的华而不实的项目屡见不鲜。目前难以支付员工薪水的斯里兰卡汉班托塔(Hambantota)港就是一例。
The most obvious risk for China is that Pakistan ultimately proves unable to honour its debts, and that it becomes as undependable a client as it has for the US. Islamabad has encouraged fundamentalist Islam with one hand of the state while checking it with another, poisoning relations with Washington. For the same reason, it may be a complicated partner for the Chinese, who have every reason to fear Islamist influence spreading across their western border.
对中国来说，最显而易见的风险是巴基斯坦最终无法偿还债务，以及它有朝一日不再是中国可靠的从属国，就像它不再是美国可靠的从属国那样。伊斯兰堡一只手助长伊斯兰原教旨主义、另一只手制约它，这破坏了与华盛顿之间的关系。出于同样原因，巴基斯坦对中国人来说可能是个不省心的伙伴，中国完全有理由担心伊斯兰主义影响越过巴中边境渗透至中国西部。
It might be tempting for the US to breathe a sigh of relief as China bails out its erstwhile client. This would be a mistake. It would also be a mistake for the US to see Pakistan as the object of rivalry between itself and China. Instead, the two superpowers have a common interest in a prosperous Pakistan, one that stops exporting terrorists around the world and begins to stabilise its tortuous relationship with its other neighbour, India.
美国看到中国搭救了自己曾经的从属国时，可能不禁如释重负。这么想将是错误的。此外，美国也不应把巴基斯坦视为自己与中国争夺的对象。相反，推动巴基斯坦繁荣发展、停止向世界各地输出恐怖分子、着手稳定其与邻国印度的复杂关系，符合美中两个超级大国的共同利益。
