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Even five years ago, Saudi Arabia was in an economically enviable position. A few unsettling trends were unfolding: hybrid and electric cars were becoming more common and oil companies were driving wells across the shale basins of the US. But neither green vehicles nor shale oil was price competitive with their conventional predecessors, and Brent crude, the global oil price benchmark, was over $100.
5年前，从经济上来说，沙特阿拉伯还很令人羡慕。当时已经出现了一些不妙的趋势：混合动力汽车和电动汽车越来越常见；石油公司在美国各个页岩盆地上钻井。但是，不论是绿色能源汽车还是页岩油，在价格上都竞争不过传统的石油。当时全球基准油价——布伦特(Brent)原油价格每桶超过100美元。
No one envies the Saudi Arabians now. Yes, the Brent price has rebounded from its of 2015-16 lows to stabilise over $50. At the Opec meeting in Vienna this week the delegates agreed to extend production curbs for another nine months.
如今，没人羡慕沙特人了。没错，布伦特油价已从2015至2016年间的低点反弹，稳定在每桶50美元上方。在本周于维也纳召开的欧佩克(Opec)会议上，代表们同意将限产协议延长9个月。
But the long-term supply and demand dynamics for oil continue to be at best unpredictable and at worst simply bearish. This is the reason for, and the greatest threat to, Saudi efforts to reform its unbalanced economy. Saudi Arabia must be weaned off oil; yet that process, which is causing domestic tension, can only be made palatable by oil money.
然而，石油的长期供需态势并没有改变，往好里说是不可预测，往差里说就完全是看跌的。这正是沙特努力改革不均衡的国内经济的原因所在，也是此番改革最大的威胁。沙特必须摆脱对石油的依赖；然而，只有石油资金才能让改革过程变得能够为人们所接受——目前改革在沙特国内造成了紧张气氛。
When the Saudis increased oil production in 2014, they hoped that tumbling prices would drive US shale producers out of business. The price pressure had almost the opposite effect: some shale drillers went bust, but the survivors became much more efficient. Production costs have fallen, on average, by 40 per cent. Many drillers have emerged from bankruptcy with cleaner balance sheets, too. Some of the US shale players can maintain output with oil at $40. Many are comfortable at $50, as demonstrated by the recent rally in energy company bonds. The number of US shale wells has rebounded strongly.
2014年沙特人扩大石油产量时，他们希望油价暴跌会让美国页岩油生产商经营不下去。最终，价格压力产生了几乎完全相反的效果：部分页岩油开采商破产了，那些幸存下来的却明显提高了效率。页岩油生产成本平均下降了40%。许多生产商走出破产后，资产负债表干净了许多。部分美国页岩油生产商能够在油价处于每桶40美元的情况下维持生产。而在油价处于每桶50美元的情况下，许多生产商日子都过得很安逸，能源企业债券近期的上涨就印证了这点。美国页岩油井的数目已强劲反弹。
An accelerating green vehicle industry is the single biggest threat to oil demand. Electric cars still account for less than 1 per cent of the global market but that slice is growing extremely fast. In 2016, sales grew 42 per cent. Improvement in battery technology is making electric cars more attractive by increasing their range. Battery prices are falling fast, too. By 2020, Bloomberg estimates, there will be 120 electric car models available. Every major car manufacturer will be in the market.
加速发展的绿色能源汽车行业对石油需求构成了最大的威胁。电动汽车占全球市场的份额仍然不到1%，不过其增长却极为迅速。2016年，电动汽车销量增长了42%。电池技术的改进增强了电动汽车的续航能力，从而提高了这类汽车的吸引力。电池的价格也降得很快。彭博(Bloomberg)估计，到2020年市面上将有120款电动汽车。所有大型汽车制造商都会进入该市场。
The possibility that oil prices could stay low or fall further makes the economic and political situation in Saudi Arabia dangerous. The country has a rapidly growing population, an economy dominated by the state, and a tradition of rich benefits for citizens. The combination is no longer sustainable as reflected in a fiscal deficit that last year hit $75bn, or one-tenth of domestic output.
油价保持低位或进一步下跌的可能性令沙特的经济和政治形势变得十分危险。该国人口增长迅速，经济由国家主导，并且有公民享受高福利的传统。这些情况并存的局面将难以为继，去年沙特的财政赤字达到了750亿美元，相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的十分之一。
The government is well aware of the problem. Mohammed bin Salman, the deputy crown prince, is leading a reform effort that combines investment in non-oil industries with cuts to domestic energy subsidies, shrinking the size of the state, and selling a stake in the state oil company. The work is proving difficult: a decision to cut benefits to civil servants was reversed last month. This is not surprising in a country where close to 70 per cent of working citizens are in the employ of the state. That the reversal came in just six months showed, however, that the government is on a short tether.
沙特政府很清楚问题出在哪里。沙特副王储穆罕默德?本?萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)正在负责实施一项综合改革计划，投资非石油工业，同时削减国内能源补贴、缩小政府规模并出售国有石油公司的股权。这项工作十分艰难：上个月，有关削减公务员福利的决定被撤销。在这个将近70%的劳动者受雇于政府的国家，这一结果并不令人意外。然而，该决定短短6个月就被撤销，表明了沙特政府在改革上难以有所作为。
The Saudi monarchy is, for better or worse, a political cornerstone in a febrile region. It is already squarely in Isis’ sights. If it weakens, the resulting power vacuum will have unpredictable consequences. An unstable oil market, by threatening reform efforts, increases these risks. The shale boom, green technology, and lower demand for oil are, on balance, facts to be celebrated. They will have political consequences, though, and the world must be ready.
不管是好是坏，沙特王国都是这个热点地区的政治基石。它已在“伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的视线之内。如果沙特国力衰弱，随之而来的权力真空将造成不可预知的后果。不稳定的石油市场会危及改革努力，从而加大这些风险。总的来说，页岩油产业的蓬勃发展、绿色能源技术、以及石油需求降低都是值得庆祝的事。不过，这些因素将带来政治后果，对此世界必须有所准备。
