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As a company Uber is an acquired taste — people love it or hate it, or sometimes both. But it has certainly proved to be an effective disruptor of the business of urban transportation in cities across the world, damaging or destroying old business models and reducing consumer costs by forcing down wages. That’s why their latest initiative, however whacky it sounds, has to be taken seriously.
作为一家公司，优步(Uber)有点像“后天养成的品味”：人们要么爱它，要么恨它，要么爱恨交织。但事实证明，它肯定是一种有效颠覆全球城市交通的工具，打击甚至摧毁旧的商业模式，并通过压低薪资来降低消费者的成本。这就是为何他们的最新举措（不管听上去是多么怪诞）必须被认真对待的原因。
Uber Elevate takes the concept of personal mobility to a new level, to be precise several hundred feet above the earth. The aim is to develop vehicles (perhaps best described as very small aircraft) that marry the established technology of vertical take-off and landing with the rapidly advancing technology of a new generation of batteries. The vehicles would be designed to transport individuals over the distance, say, from an out-of-town airport into the city centre. Imagine that in London or New York. The limit to the distance is set by the capacity of the aircraft’s battery, so could in theory be expanded. A journey from JFK to New Haven or from Heathrow to Cambridge would not be impossible.
Uber Elevate将个人移动性的概念提升到一个新的水平，确切地说是地球表面以上几百英尺的地方。目的是开发将现有的垂直起降技术与快速发展的新一代电池技术结合在一起的汽车（或许把它描述为非常小型的飞行器最合适）。这些飞行车将把人类从郊外的机场送到市中心。想象以下在伦敦或纽约有这样的服务吧。距离的限度由飞行车的电池容量决定，因此从理论上来说是可以延长的。从肯尼迪机场(JFK)飞到康涅狄格州的纽黑文(New Haven)，或者从希斯罗机场(Heathrow)飞到剑桥，将不是不可能的。
As Uber make clear in its published material, there are challenges to this concept. Safety and certification are crucial but would be helped by the fact that the “planes” would not have rotor blades — a source of problems for many helicopters.
正如优步在其公开的资料中明确提出的那样，这个概念面临挑战。安全和认证至关重要，但优点是这些“飞机”没有旋翼叶片，旋翼叶片是很多直升机的问题来源。
Urban noise controls would have to be met but fully electric propulsion should help there. The planes should also be small enough to take off and land from dedicated buildings — the Uber brochure shows them on the top of a car park. Battery capacity requires a breakthrough. As things stand, the amount of energy per unit of weight is insufficient to sustain the power necessary for long-distance commuting and recharging times are too long. But on both counts research is well advanced with a partnership between Uber and Aurora Flight Services announced at the Elevate summit in Dallas at the end of April.
必须遵守城市噪音控制的要求，但完全电动的推进器应有所帮助。这些飞行车还应足够小，以便从指定的大楼上起落，优步的宣传资料显示这些飞行车在一栋车库楼顶。电池容量需要突破。目前来看，单位重量的能量不足以支撑远距离通勤所需要的电量，而且充电时间太长。但在这两方面，优步和Aurora Flight Services的合作让相关研究非常深入，双方的合作是4月底在达拉斯的Elevate峰会上公布的。
Of course, this is not a cheap means of travel. Uber Elevate would be an elite product, at least to begin with, even with ride sharing as part of the model. The company accepts that but hopes volumes would rise over time with mass manufacturing for a global market reducing unit costs to the point where they would be competitive with ordinary cars.
当然，这并非一种廉价的出行方式。Uber Elevate将是一种精英产品，至少最初如此，尽管“拼车”是该模式的一部分。优步承认这点，但希望规模逐渐扩大，全球大规模生产把单位成本降低到可以与普通汽车竞争的水平。
The issue not addressed in the Uber document is security. In the current climate it seems unlikely that any urban transport authority would allow aircraft access to low-level airspace.
优步宣传资料中没有提到安全问题。在当前气氛下，任何一个城市交通管理部门都不太可能允许飞机在市区低空飞行。
The value of such a form of transportation could be immense. Urban congestion is one of the world’s unresolved problems, as is air quality. More and more people are working in cities — the global figure from the UN is that about 54 per cent of the world’s population is now urbanised against around a third 40 years ago. In another two decades that figure is set to rise towards 60 per cent. Public transport is gradually improving but it is also getting busier. As urban housing costs rise more workers are forced to live further from their jobs and to commute longer distances — at enormous cost in terms of wasted time and stress. According to Uber, commuters in San Francisco typically spend 230 hours in traffic each year. In Mumbai the typical commute is 90 minutes each way.
这种交通形式的意义可能是重大的。城市拥堵是全球未解决问题之一，就像空气质量一样。越来越多的人在城市工作，来自联合国(UN)的全球数据显示，全球约54%的人口在城市居住，而40年前大约为三分之一。再过20年，这个数字将逼近60%。公共交通正逐渐改善，但正变得更为繁忙。随着城市住房成本上升，更多的员工被迫居住在距离工作单位更远的地方，通勤距离变得更长——从浪费的时间和压力来看，这是一项巨大的成本。根据优步的数据，旧金山的通勤者一般每年花在交通上的时间为230小时。在孟买，一般的通勤时间为每段行程90分钟。
I don’t know if Uber’s plans can succeed. The mental picture of individuals flying brings to my mind the science fiction of HG Wells — readers will do doubt tell me the idea is older. But many of the things Wells and others wrote about have been translated from pure fiction into reality. So, suspending disbelief, consider for a moment the potential impact of Uber Elevate or any of the comparable ideas being developed by a dozen other companies.
我不知道优步的计划能否成功。个人飞行让我想起HG?威尔斯(HG Wells)的科幻作品中的画面，读者们肯定会告诉我，这个构想的历史更久远。但威尔斯和其他人当年描写的其他很多东西，已经从纯科幻变为了现实。因此，暂时抛弃不信任吧，考虑一下Uber Elevate或另外10多家公司正在开发的类似构想的潜在影响吧。
First, the need for additional conventional infrastructure — such as hugely expensive high speed rail links —would be diminished. Airports could be located further away from cities, reducing noise pollution and opening different patterns of regional development. And both business and housing markets would shift if new transport options changed the economics of locations.
首先，建设更多传统基础设施的必要性将降低，例如造价极其高昂的高速铁路。机场可以建在距离城市更远的地方，这将减少噪音污染，开启不同的区域发展模式。如果新的交通选择改变了有关地理位置的经济考虑，那么商业和住房市场都将发生变化。
It is easy to laugh at Uber Elevate but it is a reminder of how unsatisfactory the current urban transport situation has become. Great cities are being destroyed by congestion. Even with the gradual move to cleaner fuels air quality in many cities is awful and in some, especially in the developing world, a major health risk and a very live political issue. Last year’s powerful report from the International Energy Agency quoted an estimate of 6m premature deaths each year as a result of air pollution.
我们很容易去嘲笑Uber Elevate，但它提醒我们当前的城市交通状况是多么的令人不满。大城市正因为拥堵而遭到破坏。尽管我们正逐渐采用更清洁的燃料，但很多城市的空气质量很糟糕，在一些城市，特别是在发展中国家，它成了一大健康风险和受到关注的政治议题。去年，国际能源署(IEA)的一份强有力的报告援引数据称，据估计，空气污染每年造成600万人过早死亡。
In cities like London cycle routes are fine, although the combination of cycles, cars and lorries on the same roads creates risks of its own. Congestion charges and road pricing are good ideas in theory but are often regressive and penalise those with no alternative means of travel. Without major change these problems will become more serious as urban populations grow.
在伦敦等城市，自行车道确实不错，但自行车、汽车和货车在同一路面通行制造了危险。从理论上来说，拥堵费和道路收费是好办法，但往往对穷人造成更大的影响，尤其是惩罚那些没有其他出行方式的人。如果不进行重大改革，这些问题将随着城市人口的增加变得更严重。
The energy business is not just about the supply side. How energy is used also matters. Any company that can solve or mitigate the challenges of urban transportation will do very well. Uber may or not have the right answer — but at least it is trying.
能源并非只是关乎供应面。如何利用能源也很重要。任何一家能够解决或缓解城市交通挑战的公司都会很成功。优步可能有——也可能没有——正确的答案，但至少它在努力。
Nick Butler is Visiting Professor and Chair of the Kings Policy Institute at Kings College London.
本文作者是伦敦大学国王学院(King's College London)国王政策研究所(Kings Policy Institute)访问教授和主席
