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What are the issues that will shape the global energy market in 2018? What will be the energy mix, trade patterns and price trends? Every country is different and local factors, including politics, are important. But at the global level there are four key questions, and each of which answers is highly uncertain.
2018年，哪些问题将左右全球能源市场格局？能源结构、贸易模式和价格趋势将是怎样的？每个国家情况不同，包括政治在内的本土因素很重要。但在全球层面，有四个关键问题，每个问题的答案都存在高度不确定性。
The first question is whether Saudi Arabia is stable. The kingdom’s oil exports now mostly go to Asia but the volumes involved mean that any volatility will destabilise a market where speculation is rife. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is apparently in control but it is a strange and fragile sort of control that requires the imprisonment of dozens of senior businessmen including members of the royal family, the concentration of power in the hands of one individual and a huge international PR campaign to persuade the world that MbS is a modernising liberal.
第一个问题是沙特阿拉伯能否保持稳定。目前，沙特王国的石油出口大多流向亚洲，但其出口量意味着任何波动都会让这个充斥着投机活动的市场变得不稳定。穆罕默德?本?萨勒曼王储(Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman)似乎控制着局面，但这是一种古怪而脆弱的控制：它有赖于羁押包括王室成员在内的几十名大商人、将权力集中于一人之手，以及发动大规模国际宣传活动，以说服全世界穆罕默德?本?萨勒曼是一位现代化自由主义者。
That is certainly not the view held in Yemen or across the Middle East. Behind the grand plans for a new $500bn city (sorry, "urban metropolis for the world") run by robots and the radical notion of allowing Saudi women to drive for the first time is a degree of old-fashioned religious fanaticism directed against the Shia communities across the region and Iran in particular. This could produce real instability over the next few months.
显然，也门或者整个中东并不这么想。在投资5000亿美元建立一个由机器人运营的新城（抱歉，原话是“世界的大都会”）的宏大计划以及首次允许沙特妇女开车这种激进思想背后，有一种针对整个中东地区、尤其是伊朗的什叶派的旧式宗教狂热。这可能在接下来几个月带来真正的不稳定。
The risk is that an open conflict, which Iran and Saudi have traditionally avoided despite all their differences, would spread and hit oil production and trade. It is worth remembering that the Gulf states account for a quarter of global production and over 40 per cent of all the oil traded globally. The threat to stability is all the greater given that Iran is likely to win any such clash and to treat the result as a licence to reassert its influence in the region.
尽管两国存在种种分歧，伊朗和沙特一向避免公开冲突。倘若双方爆发冲突，可能蔓延并影响到石油生产和贸易活动。别忘了，海湾国家占全球石油产量的四分之一，占全球石油贸易的40%以上。考虑到两国若发生冲突伊朗很可能胜出，并将己方的胜利视为重新确立本国在中东地区影响力的通行证，这使可能的冲突对稳定的威胁就更大了。
The second question is how rapidly production of oil from shale rock will grow in the US — 2017 has seen an increase of 600,000 barrels a day to over 6m. The increase in global prices over the past six months has made output from almost all America's producing areas commercially viable and drilling activity is rising. A comparable increase in 2018 would offset most of the current Opec production cuts and either force another quota reduction or push prices down.
第二个问题是美国的页岩油产量会增长多快。2017年，美国的页岩油日产量增加60万桶，达到逾600万桶。过去6个月，国际油价的上涨使美国几乎所有石油产区具备了商业开发价值，钻探活动正在增加。如果2018年美国页岩油产量有同等程度的增加，欧佩克(Opec)减产的影响将在很大程度上被抵消，结果是，或者欧佩克被迫再一次下调生产配额，或者油价被拉低。
The third question concerns China. For the last three years the country has managed to deliver economic growth with only minimal increases in energy consumption. Growth was probably lower than the claimed numbers — the Chinese do not like to admit that they, too, are subject to economic cycles and recessions — but even so the achievement is considerable. The question is whether the trend can be continued. If it can, the result will limit global demand growth for oil, gas and coal.
第三个问题与中国有关。过去3年，中国在能源消费量微幅增长的情况下实现了经济增长。中国的经济增速很可能低于对外宣称的数字——中国人不情愿承认他们也受到经济周期和衰退的影响——但即使如此，中国的这一成就依然是可观的。问题在于这一趋势能否持续。如果能的话，它将限制全球石油、天然气和煤炭需求的增长。
China, which accounts for a quarter of the world’s daily energy use, is the swing consumer. If energy efficiency gains continue, CO2 emissions will remain flat or even fall. The country's economy is changing and moving away from heavy industry fuelled largely by coal to a more service-based one, with a more varied fuel mix. But the pace of that shift is uncertain and some recent data suggests that as economic growth has picked up, so has consumption of oil and coal. Beijing has high ambitions for a much cleaner energy economy, driven not least by the levels of air pollution in many of the major cities; 2018 will show how much progress they are making.
中国占全球能源日消费量的四分之一，是一个能够左右整体格局的能源消费国。如果能效继续提高，其二氧化碳排放量将持平甚至下滑。中国经济正在转型，从主要由煤炭拉动的重工业经济转变为更多地由服务业驱动，能源结构更多样化。但经济转型的速度尚不确定，最近一些数据显示，随着经济增长提速，石油和煤炭消费量也在增加。北京方面的一个远大理想是发展由更清洁能源驱动的经济，这主要是考虑到很多大城市的空气污染水平；2018年将可以看到他们取得了多大进步。
The fourth question is, if anything, the most important. How fast can renewables grow? The last few years have seen dramatic reductions in costs and strong increase in supply. The industry has had a great year, with bids from offshore wind for capacity auctions in the UK and elsewhere at record low levels.
第四个问题可能是最重要的。可再生能源的发展能有多快？过去几年，可再生能源的成本大幅下滑，供应强劲增长。该行业度过了美好的一年，在英国和其他地区，海上风电拍卖的报价达到创纪录低点。
Wind is approaching grid parity — the moment when it can compete without subsidies. Solar is also thriving: according to the International Energy Agency, costs have fallen by 70 per cent since 2010 not least because of advances in China, which now accounts for 60 per cent of total solar cell manufacturing capacity. The question is how rapidly all those gains can be translated into electric supply.
风电正接近“电网平价”(grid parity)，到了那个拐点它可以在没有补贴的情况下与其他能源竞争。太阳能也形势大好：根据国际能源署(International Energy Agency)的数据，自2010年以来，太阳能的成本已下降70%，这主要是因为中国的进展，中国目前占全球太阳能电池制造能力的60%。问题是所有这些增长能够多快转化为电力供应。
Renewables, including hydro, accounted for just 5 per cent of global daily energy supply according to the IEA's latest data. That is increasing — solar photovoltaic capacity grew by 50 per cent in 2016 — but to make a real difference the industry needs a period of expansion comparable in scale to the growth of personal computing and mobile phones in the 1990s and 2000s.
根据国际能源署的最新数据，包括水力发电在内的可再生能源仅占全球每日能源供应的5%。这个占比在上升（2016年，太阳能光伏发电能力增长50%），但要真正产生影响，可再生能源行业需要经历一个扩张期，其势头要能与上世纪90年代个人电脑、本世纪初手机的发展相提并论。
The problem is that the industry remains fragmented. Most renewable companies are small and local, and in many cases undercapitalised; some are built to collect subsidies. A radical change will be necessary to make the industry global and capable of competing on the scale necessary to displace coal and natural gas. The coming year will show us whether it is ready for that challenge.
问题是，该行业仍很分散。多数可再生能源公司规模小、本地化，很多公司资金不足；一些公司的成立是为了获得补贴。要让这个行业全球化、并以能够取代煤炭和天然气所需的规模竞争，必须进行重大变革。接下来这一年，我们将看到该行业是否做好了应对这种挑战的准备。
In many ways, the energy business is at a moment of change and transition. Every reader will have their own view on each of the four questions. To me, the prospect is of supply continuing to outpace demand. If that is right, the surge in oil prices over the past two months is a temporary and unsustainable phenomenon. It would take another Middle East war to change the equation. Unfortunately, that is all too possible.
从很多方面而言，能源行业正处于一个变革和过渡的时刻。每一个读者对这四个问题都有着自己的看法。在我看来，未来供应将继续超过需求。如果这是正确的，那么过去两个月的油价飙升将是暂时的、不可持续的。要改变这种供需关系除非再发生一场中东战争。不幸的是，这太有可能了。
