评论
打印
Poland was where the second world war started and where the Soviet empire began to crumble. Now the country may once again play a crucial role in European history. A struggle between the European Commission in Brussels and the Polish government is shaping up as an existential test for the EU.
波兰是第二次世界大战爆发之地，也是苏联帝国开始瓦解之地。如今，这个国家或将再次在欧洲的历史上扮演重要角色。位于布鲁塞尔的欧盟委员会(European Commission)与波兰政府之间的一场斗争，正在演变为关乎欧盟存亡的一场考验。
In December, for the first time ever, the commission started a formal procedure that could strip a member state of its voting rights. The Polish government stands accused of violating the EU’s founding principles, which include “democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights”.
去年12月，欧盟委员会史无前例地启动了一项可以剥夺一个成员国投票权的正式程序。波兰政府被指违反了包括“民主、平等、法治、尊重人权”在内的欧盟的基本原则。
The battle over Poland is turning into a test case over the strength of populism — not just in Europe, but around the world. Charles Kupchan, who ran the Europe department in the Obama White House, wrote last week: “With the United States missing in action, it is up to the European Union to defend the principles and practices of democratic society. The fate of Poland, Europe and the west is on the line.”
围绕波兰发生的这场斗争，正在演变为对民粹主义实力的一次测试——不仅在欧洲，而且是在全世界范围内。奥巴马(Obama)主政白宫时期担任欧洲事务高级官员的查尔斯?库普钱(Charles Kupchan)不久前写道：“由于美国不再出头，要靠欧盟来捍卫民主社会的原则和实践了。这关系到波兰、欧洲以及西方的命运。”
But those hoping that the EU will win a decisive battle against populist authoritarianism in Poland are liable to be disappointed. A combination of politics and strategic considerations are more likely to lead to a messy compromise.
但那些希望欧盟能在与波兰民粹威权主义的决战中获胜的人士，可能会大失所望。政治考量加上战略考量，更有可能带来一场稀里糊涂的妥协。
The Polish government moves that have alarmed the EU include turning state broadcasting into a propaganda arm of the government. But the main bone of contention is a set of new laws that have cleared the way for the government to stack the Polish courts.
波兰政府令欧盟警惕的举动之一是将国家广播电视机构变为政府的宣传部门。但引发争议的焦点是一系列新法律，这些新法律为波兰政府在法院安插自己人扫清了道路。
The European Commission agonised long and hard before taking action over Poland. It knows that, in many important respects, Poland remains a proper democracy. State television is a bad joke, but there is still a strong independent media and there are vigorous opposition parties. However, the Polish government has already started to make life more difficult for the independent media and it is also pushing through “reforms” of the voting system that are raising fears about the integrity of future elections.
欧盟委员会在对波兰采取行动之前苦苦思索了很久。它清楚，在许多重要方面，波兰仍是一个够格的民主国家。虽然波兰国家电视台发生的事情让人苦笑，但波兰国内仍存在着强大的独立媒体以及强有力的反对党。然而，波兰政府已经开始采取行动让独立媒体的日子不好过，同时还在推动投票体制的“改革”——此举引发了对未来选举公正性的担忧。
The EU authorities felt they had to draw a line. However, they also know that Poland is potentially a “lose, lose” situation for them. If the EU fails to take action, it will stand accused of ignoring threats to democracy and the rule of law. But, by taking action, the authorities in Brussels allow a nationalist government to argue that foreign bureaucrats are attempting to undermine Polish independence. Even worse, this is a battle that the EU might well lose. Hungary, which is also sliding into authoritarian populism, has threatened to veto any move against Poland. That could leave the EU looking impotent, divided and unable to defend its core values.
欧盟当局认为他们不得不画出一条底线。然而，他们也明白，波兰对他们而言可能是一场“双输”。如果不采取行动，欧盟将被指责无视民主和法治受到的威胁。但采取行动又会贻人口实，让一个奉行民族主义的政府有理由说，外国官僚企图破坏波兰的独立。更糟糕的是，这是一场欧盟很可能会输的斗争。同样正在滑向威权民粹主义的匈牙利已经威胁要否决任何针对波兰的行动。这可能会使欧盟看起来既软弱又分裂，且无力捍卫自己的核心价值观。
The risks for the EU are only increased because the Polish government can make a case that it is being unfairly singled out. The Hungarian government, led by Viktor Orban, has gone even further than Poland in undermining the independence of the media and the courts, but has, so far, evaded censure. One reason might be that the EU was simply asleep at the wheel as Mr Orban made his moves. But a less palatable explanation is that Mr Orban has taken the precaution of keeping his Fidesz party within the European People’s party (EPP), which is the dominant grouping in the European Parliament. As a result he has powerful friends in Germany. By contrast, Poland’s governing Law and Justice party, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, is outside the EPP tent.
欧盟面临的风险只会不断增加，因为波兰政府可以主张欧盟不公平地单独针对它。欧尔班?维克托(Viktor Orban)领导的匈牙利政府在破坏媒体和法院独立性方面做得比波兰更甚，但迄今并未受到谴责。其中一个原因或许是，欧尔班采取行动时，欧盟在方向盘上睡着了。但是，一个让人不太好想的解释是，欧尔班采取了预防措施，把他的青民盟(Fidesz party)留在了欧洲人民党(EPP)中，后者是欧洲议会(European Parliament)的第一大党团。因为这个原因，他在德国拥有了强大的盟友。相比之下，雅罗斯瓦夫?卡钦斯基(Jaroslaw Kaczynski)领导的波兰执政党——法律与公正党(Law and Justice party)并非欧洲人民党会员。
The argument that the EU is guilty of double standards is bolstered by events in Spain, where elected politicians are in prison for staging a referendum on independence for Catalonia. The EU can respond that the referendum was illegal and that the Spanish courts have acted within the bounds of the current constitution and respected media freedom. Nonetheless, the government in Warsaw will point out that it is Spain — not Poland — that is currently imprisoning opposition politicians.
西班牙的事态支持了如下主张：欧盟执行双重标准。在西班牙，经选举产生的政治家因为就加泰罗尼亚独立举行公投而被捕。欧盟可以回应，该公投为非法，西班牙法院在当前宪法许可的范围内采取了行动，且尊重了媒体自由。然而，华沙政府可以指出，现在将反对派政治家投入监狱的是西班牙，而非波兰。
The Polish government’s argument that it is being singled out because of its cultural conservatism and criticism of the EU may throw up enough smoke to obscure the clear-cut threat to the rule of law in Poland. And that, combined with broader geopolitical pressures, could push Brussels and Warsaw into a compromise.
波兰政府主张，由于其文化保守主义和对欧盟的批评，它被单独拎出来收拾，这一主张或许能制造足够的烟幕，从而掩盖波兰国内法治面临的切实威胁。加上更广泛的地缘政治压力，这可能促使布鲁塞尔与华沙达成妥协。
The German government in particular is very torn about taking action against Poland. For historical and geographical reasons, it regards reconciliation with Poland as a crucial imperative.
德国政府尤其对收拾波兰感到为难。由于历史和地理原因，德国将与波兰和解视为一项重要的义务。
Compromise may already be in the works. Last week Poland reshuffled its government and removed some of the people regarded as “crazies” in Brussels. Early talks between the Polish government and the European Commission were conducted in polite terms. In Warsaw, there is now talk that the Polish government may come up with some cosmetic concessions, in the hope that this will buy off the commission.
妥协或许已在进行之中。不久前，波兰改组了政府，撤换掉了一些布鲁塞尔方面视为“疯子”的官员。在早先的会谈中，波兰政府与欧盟委员会都表现得彬彬有礼。在华沙，如今有传言称波兰政府可能会做出一些表面上的让步，希望这样可以让欧盟委员会买账。
The EU, which already has its hands full with eurozone reform and Brexit, may be inclined to grab any olive branch that is offered by Poland. But that would be a mistake. The questions posed for the EU by Poland and Hungary are, ultimately, even more fundamental than the problem of Brexit. They challenge the EU’s very basis as a community of democratic, law-abiding nations. If the EU dodges the Polish issue now, it will come back to haunt it later.
已因欧元区改革和英国退欧而忙得不可开交的欧盟，可能倾向于抓住波兰伸出的任何橄榄枝，但这将是错误之举。从长远来看，波兰和匈牙利给欧盟带来的问题，甚至比英国退欧的问题更为根本。他们挑战的是欧盟作为一个民主、守法的国家共同体的根基。如果欧盟现在回避波兰问题，这一问题未来还会回来作祟。
