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“This can turn ugly…”
“情势可能会转恶……”
Stocks across Asia-Pacific tumbled, bond prices rose and the yen rallied on Friday in the wake of the Trump administration’s announcement that it would impose tariffs on up to $60bn in annual imports from China.
在特朗普政府宣布将对每年高达600亿美元的中国输美产品征收25%关税以后，周五亚太地区股市重挫，债券价格上涨，日元反弹。
Beijing hit back on Friday. The Ministry of Commerce said it was planning tariffs on 128 products accounting for around $3bn in US imports, although that reaction was technically in response to earlier steel and aluminium tariffs.
北京方面在周五作出反击。中国商务部表示，计划对美国输华的128个税项产品加征关税，按2017年统计，涉及美对华约30亿美元出口。尽管中方的这一动作理论上是为了回应更早时美国对进口钢铁和铝征收关税的举措。
Here is a quick roundup of what analysts are saying about the brewing trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
以下是分析师对于世界最大的两个经济体之间正在酝酿的贸易战的点评摘要。
ING Asia Pacific chief economist Robert Carnell:
荷兰国际集团(ING)亚太首席经济学家罗伯特?卡内尔(Robert Carnell)表示：
If the tariffs go ahead as planned, then we believe China will retaliate. It is impossible to imagine that they cannot. And then we expect the US to retaliate further.
“如果关税按计划实施，那么我们认为，中国将会进行报复。无法想象关税不会推进。在那之后，我们预计美国将进一步报复。”
This can turn ugly on a global scale very quickly. And synchronous global growth or not, markets are right to be pricing in a more subdued outlook.
“情势可能很快在全球范围转恶。无论是否与全球增长同步，市场按照更黯淡的前景来定价，是正确的。”
Although this trade dispute is largely a US-China one, it has the potential to embroil much of the Asian region.
“尽管这次的贸易纠纷主要是中美之间的，亚洲大多数地区也有可能被卷入。”
ANZ economists Raymond Yeung and Daniel Wilson:
澳新银行(ANZ)的经济学家杨宇霆(Raymond Yeung)和丹尼尔?威尔逊(Daniel Wilson)说：
Chinese authorities will stand firm as an advocate for globalisation but will respond to the US’s announcement on a bilateral basis. It will not devalue its currency.
“中国当局将坚定全球化倡导者的立场，但会在双边基础上回应美国宣布的举措。中国不会让货币贬值。”
Although the face value of the US tariff will be small, President Trump may push other countries to take sides, resulting in a divided world. The scale of the trade war would be broadened. This is the biggest risk lying ahead.
“尽管从账目数字来看美国征收关税的规模不大，但特朗普总统可能会推动其他国家选边站，最终导致世界分裂。贸易战的规模可能会扩大。这是未来的最大风险。”
Our major worry is whether President Trump’s tactical approach will spill over to the rest of the world. He deliberately relates trade measures to foreign policy.
“我们主要担忧的是特朗普总统的策略是否会给世界其他地方带来溢出效应。他故意将贸易措施与外交政策关联起来。”
JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist Hannah Anderson:
摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)全球市场策略师汉娜?安德森(Hannah Anderson) ：
The equity market will bear the brunt of the market reactions. Most impacted will be the US, Korea, and Taiwan as companies domiciled in these markets make up a significant portion of the global production chain of Chinese exports.
“首当其冲的将是股市。受影响最大的将是美国、韩国和台湾，因为在这些市场注册的公司占据了中国出口产品全球生产链的很大一部分。”
The effects are likely to be felt more strongly in the US and increase in both consumer and producer prices. Exports are extremely important to the Chinese economy, but have been trending less so in recent years and the U.S. has been shrinking as a share of China’s export market.
“美国感受到的影响可能会更强烈，消费者价格和生产者价格都会上涨。出口对中国经济来说非常重要，但近年来重要性趋于下降，美国占中国出口市场的份额一直在缩小。”
Other than the potential modest inflationary impact on U.S. consumer prices, which could bias the Fed toward a more hawkish stance, impact in the bond market is like to be limited.
“除了对美国消费者价格带来温和的潜在通胀影响外——这可能会使美联储采取更强硬的姿态——它对债券市场的影响可能有限。”
The Economist Intelligence Unit global chief economist Simon Baptist:
经济学人集团智库(Economist Intelligence Unit)全球首席经济学家西蒙?巴普蒂斯特(Simon Baptist) ：
The initial list of products proposed by China should be seen as a minimum opening retaliation, showing that China will prefer to keep any trade war contained and within World Trade Organisation parameters, but it has clearly left the door open to expand these if US actions escalate.
“中国提出的初步产品清单应该被视为最低限度的初始报复，表明中国更愿意将任何贸易战限制在世界贸易组织(WTO)的框架内，但是如果美国的行动升级，它显然还有后手。”
Excluding consumer goods such as iPhones from the tariffs won't protect US consumers from price increases. China is so integral to global supply chains for many products that a good portion - but not all - of the tariff impact will be passed onto US consumers.
“从关税清单中排除iPhone之类消费品不会保护美国消费者免遭价格上涨的影响。中国对许多产品的全球供应链不可或缺，因此会有很大一部分（但不是全部）关税影响传递给美国消费者。”
China’s swift response to Trump’s tariff announcement and the departure of national security adviser HR McMaster from the White House “seem to have been the last straws” for the dollar against the yen, Westpac senior currency strategist Sean Callow said, adding that the break through the ￥105 mark was “disturbing”.
Westpac高级外汇策略师肖恩?卡洛(Sean Callow)表示，中国对特朗普关税声明迅速做出反应以及美国国家安全顾问赫伯特?雷蒙德?麦克马斯特(HR McMaster)离职“似乎是压倒美元兑日元汇率的最后一根稻草”，他补充说，美元兑日元突破1美元兑105日元大关“令人不安”。
Japanese officials can express concern but their complaints have no plausible threat behind them, given the hands-off approach to intervention by the Abe administration and the fact that the yen is not especially strong in trade-weighted terms
“日本官员可以表示担忧，但他们的抱怨不包含任何可信的威胁，因为安倍政府对干预的态度是放任不管，而且经过贸易加权的日元并不特别坚挺。”
