Analysts Say Swing States Hold Key to US Election
美大选一争高下 摇摆州举足轻重

In the final days of the U.S. presidential election campaign, candidates Barack Obama and John McCain will focus on a relatively small handful of states that will provide the margin of victory on Election Day, November 4.

在美国总统竞选的最后日子里，候选人巴拉克·奥巴马和约翰·麦凯恩将会把竞选活动的重点集中在为数不多的几个州上，在11月4号的选举中如果赢得这几个州将会让候选人以较大优势获胜。

In the 2000 election, Democrat Al Gore won more popular votes than his Republican opponent, then Texas governor George Bush. But Mr. Bush won the election because he defeated Gore in the electoral vote tally.

在2000年的选举中，民主党候选人阿尔·戈尔赢得的选民票数超过了共和党对手、当时的德克萨斯州州长乔治·W 布什。不过，布什得到的选举人选票超过了戈尔，从而赢得总统选举。

Each state has a certain number of electoral votes based on the number of Senate and House members who represent that state in Congress. Each state has two senators, but the number of House seats for a given state depends on population.

根据在国会中代表各州的联邦参议员和众议员的人数，每个州都有一定数量的选举人票。每个州有两名参议员，但是众议员人数则要根据某一州的人口而定。

California, the largest state, has 53 House members and two senators, for a total of 55 electoral votes. Wyoming, one of the smallest states, has only three electoral votes, taking into account its two U.S. senators and one House member.

美国第一大州加利福尼亚州有53名众议员，2名参议员，总的选举人票是55张。怀俄明州等美国最小的州，各有2名参议员和1名众议员，考虑进这个因素，这些州各自总共只有3张选举人票。

As they campaign in the final days, both Barack Obama and John McCain will try to cobble together enough electoral votes to get to the magic number of 270 to clinch the presidency.

巴拉克·奥巴马和约翰·麦凯恩在大选之前最后这些天竞选时，都会争取拿到更多的选举人票，以便确保得到赢得总统选举所需的270张选举人票。

American University expert Curtis Gans says each candidate looks at the electoral map of the country differently.

美利坚大学专家科蒂斯·甘斯认为，两位候选人在看待美国各州选举人票分布图的时候各有不同角度。

"Every candidate in this polarized country at this point starts with a number of states that are clearly their states to win, and a number of states that are their states to lose," Gans said.

甘斯说：“在这个选民两极分化的国家里，每位候选人在这种情况下都会从明显取胜的州或可能会失败的州着手。”

As in most presidential elections, the candidates wind up focusing on a relatively small handful of so-called swing or battleground states, states where the race is close and states that have enough electoral votes to make a difference in the outcome of the election.

正如大多数总统选举那样，候选人最后都要集中精力攻克几个州，它们是人称的摇摆州或者候选人争夺激烈的州，这些州的选情非常接近，而且(赢得这些州的)选举人票足以改变总统选举结果。

Larry Sabato directs the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

维吉尼亚大学政治中心主任拉里·萨巴托说：

"Out of the 50 states, about 40 of them are almost predetermined, and we can call them today. So, the focus is on ten competitive states, relatively competitive," Sabato explained. "Some of them are complete toss-ups, could go in either direction. I think Ohio and Virginia are in that category. Others may be leaning one way or another. So, we tend to focus on these states because they are the ones in the end who determine who is going to be president."

“美国50个州里，有大约40个州差不多都能提前确定选举人票的归属，现在就能预测。因此，重点是那10个竞争相对激烈的州。其中几个州完全说不准，支持谁的可能性都有。我认为，俄亥俄州和维吉尼亚州就属于这一类。其它州可能不是支持民主党就是支持共和党候选人。因此，我们会把重点放在这些个州，因为谁会入主白宫，这些州的选票最终会起作用。”

For example, Republican presidential candidates tend to do well in the deep South and the Plains states. Democrats do well in the Northeast, along the Pacific coast and in the upper Midwest.

比如，共和党总统候选人会在美国最南部的一些州和美国平原地区的州得到高的支持率。民主党候选人在东北部各州、太平洋沿岸各州以及最西部的几个州支持率不错。

That leaves 10 to 12 swing states where both campaigns are competitive, states that will provide the margin of victory on November 4.

这样，就有10到12个摇摆州是双方必争之地。在11月4号的大选中，这些州将对候选人获胜起决定作用。

Dennis Johnson is a political expert at George Washington University.

乔治·华盛顿大学政治问题专家丹尼丝·约翰逊说：

"When you think about the strategy of an election, the most important number is 270. And that is the number of electors that will get you over the top (to win the presidency). And, any combination of states that has 270, that is the magic number that you are really looking for," Johnson said.

“如果你考虑选举战略的话，最重要的数字是270。就是选举人票数，谁得到这些票数谁就能当总统。不论通过哪几个州，只要(加起来)选举人票数之和是270票，这就是候选人的确想要争夺的神奇票数。”

Recent polls give Democrat Barack Obama an edge in some of the larger swing or battleground states, states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Indiana.

最近的民意调查显示民主党的奥巴马在包括宾夕法尼亚、俄亥俄、密西根以及印第安纳等几个较大的关键州取得领先地位。

Obama has been leading even in Florida, the state that gave President Bush his narrow victory over Al Gore in 2000.

奥巴马甚至在佛罗里达领先，布什总统在2000年总统选举中正是在佛罗里达州以微弱的多数击败戈尔的。

Obama is also doing well in states like Nevada, Colorado and even North Carolina, all of which have tended to vote Republican in recent years.

奥巴马还在内华达、科罗拉多、甚至是北卡罗来纳等州的民调中成绩良好，这些州在最近几年都倾向于投票给共和党。

Tom DeFrank is Washington bureau chief of the New York Daily News and a longtime observer of U.S. politics.

迪法兰克是纽约日报华盛顿分部的领导人，他也是长期研究美国政治的观察家。

"These are states that are usually Republican, for the most part, and states that McCain has to win," DeFrank said. "And so, Obama has an easier path. He has got a better electoral map and he has got momentum on his side and it would take a string of things to go McCain's way for this trend to be reversed. It could happen but it's not likely at the moment."

他说：“这些州通常是属于共和党的，至少它们大半如此，而这些州也是麦凯恩必须要赢得的州。所以，奥巴马已经较早赢得了优势。他的竞选版图形势大好，他的阵营动力十足，而麦凯恩必须做一连串的工作才能扭转这种趋势。这种情况有可能发生，但在目前看来似乎不太可能。”

National polls are important in the closing days of the presidential race. But experts will be keeping a close eye on the race in several individual key states on election night, as they watch to see which of the two candidates will get to the magic number of 270 electoral votes first.

全国性的民意调查对总统选举的最后几天十分重要。不过专家会在选举当晚特别注意那些关键州，他们将会看到两个候选人谁先拿到决定胜负的270选举人票。