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Is the world facing any crisis?
世界面临一些危机吗？
Yes, you will not be surprised to learn from me something that you already know,
是的，我将要说的你已经知道，你不会感到奇怪。
that the world is facing various crises, of which I would pick out four as being the most serious crises.
全世界正面临着各种危机，我将其中四种列为最严重的危机。
The crisis with the most explosive potential for damage is of course, nuclear weapons.
具有最大破坏潜力的危机当然是核武器。
The risk of the U.S. and Russia getting into a nuclear war has now decreased.
现在美国和俄罗斯发动核战争的风险已经降低。
But the risk of India and Pakistan has increased. The risks of North Korea and the United States has increased.
但是印度和巴基斯坦出现核战争的风险已经上升。朝鲜和美国核战争的风险增加了。
And then the risk that terrorists either will steal a nuclear weapon, as they tried to do at the time of the World Trade attack,
然后是这样的风险，恐怖分子可能像在世界贸易中心袭击中那样试图窃取核武器，
or that they will take a perfectly normal dynamite bomb, which they've been very good at blowing off in the central of Paris and Lisbon and other places,
或者使用正常的炸药，他们已经在巴黎和里斯本等地发动袭击，
and just add to the dynamite bomb a radioactive isotope like cesium 137, which you can get from any hospital medical facility.
如果加入从任何医院都可以获得的放射性同位素铯137，
You put your isotope in your dynamite bomb and blow off your dynamite bomb in the center of Washington, D.C. And then you sterilize for the next 132 years that area of Washington,
这种炸弹在华盛顿特区中心爆炸，那么该区域在未来132年都会寸草不生，
which become radioactive. Big consequences, so risk for the world is nuclear risk.
而且变得具有放射性。后果是如此严重，所以全世界面临核风险。
Another risk of the world is obviously climate change, which has the potential for cooking all of us, cooking and drying out and raising sea level for all of us.
全世界的另一个风险显然是气候变化，这可能使我们所有人都受到炙烤，造成干旱并导致海平面上升。
The third risk for the world is running out of resources. The world is operating unsustainably now.
世界面临的第三个风险是资源减少。现在全世界的运转不具可持续性。
At the rate we are going, we will run out of essential resources, fisheries, forestry, water, topsoil within about the next 30 years or so.
按照我们目前的速度，在未来大约30年左右的时间里，我们将耗尽主要资源、鱼类、森林、水和表层土壤。
Either we solve it in the next 30 years or we'll never get to solve it.
我们需要在未来30年内解决这个问题，否则我们将永远无法解决。
And then there's finally the world risk of inequality. There's inequality not only between Downtown LA and Beverly Hills, there's inequality between countries of the world.
最后，全世界还存在不平等的风险。不仅洛杉矶市中心和比佛利山庄之间存在不平等，世界各国之间也存在不平等。
But poorer countries nowadays have-- in this globalized world-- have ways of visiting their dissatisfaction on rich countries
在现在这个全球化的世界中，更贫穷的国家以多种方式表现出对富裕国家的不满，
by supporting terrorists or by forming unstoppable waves of immigration or unintentionally by poor public health systems, underfunded public health systems,
例如支持恐怖分子，或形成不可阻挡的移民浪潮，或者无意中形成的糟糕公共卫生系统、资金不足的公共卫生系统，
which means that they can't cure their own diseases of malaria and dengue.
这意味着这些国家不能治愈自己的疟疾和登革热疾病。
But nowadays, in these days of international travel, American tourists go into other countries and visitors from other countries come to the United States,
但是现在，在国际旅行日益频繁的时代，美国游客进入其他国家，其他国家的游客也来到美国，
meaning that malaria and chikungunya fever and dengue are showing up in developed countries.
这意味着疟疾、基孔肯雅热和登革热将在发达国家出现。
这些就是我认为世界面临的四个最大问题。
I'm cautiously optimistic.
我持谨慎乐观态度。
By cautiously optimistic I mean that we have problems and we're capable of solving the problems because the problems that we face are problems that we humans are causing, such as climate change.
谨慎乐观是指我们存在问题并且有能力解决这些问题，因为我们面临的问题是人类造成的问题，例如气候变化。
They're not an asteroid racing towards us and there's nothing we can do about it.
它们不是朝我们飞来的小行星，我们不是无能为力。
And how optimistic am I? It depends upon the choices that we make.
我有多乐观呢？这取决于我们做出的选择。
I can't predict what choices we'll make. But I would say that I see the chances as at least 51% that my sons will end up in a happy world 30 years from now.
我无法预测我们会做出什么选择。但是我要说的是，我认为我的孩子们至少有51％的机会在30年后生活在一个幸福的世界。
And the chances are no worse than 49% that they'll end up in a miserable world not worth living it.
而且，他们陷入一个不值得生活的悲惨世界的几率不超过49％。
But it depends upon our choices. And I cannot predict our choices.
但这取决于我们的选择，我无法预测我们的选择。
If we make the right choices, we are guaranteed to end up in a happy world.
如果我们做出正确的选择，我们一定会生活在一个幸福的世界。
