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I'm definitely not the foremost technology historian. I don't even call myself a futurist.
我绝对不是首屈一指的技术历史学家，我甚至都不自认为是一名未来主义者。
I like to say, I like to predict the future.
我喜欢预测未来。
I have pinned to my Twitter profile, "Over the long term, the future is decided by optimists."
我的推特个人简介上写着“长远来看，未来是由乐观主义的人决定的”。
This is not a world we have fewer problems.
这个世界的问题并没有减少。
This is a world we have as many, if not more problems, but those problems themselves are opportunities.
世界上的问题即便没有增加，那至少也是一如既往地多，但这些问题本身也是机会。
It is much, much harder to create a future that we would like to live in- unless we can imagine it first.
想创造一个我们愿意生活的未来愈发困难了，除非我们能先现象出一个那样的未来。
I'm Kevin Kelly, I'm Senior Maverick at Wired Magazine, and author of a bunch of books, including "What Technology Wants."
我是凯文·凯利，我是《连线》杂志资深的特立独行者，也是很多书的作者，包括《技术想要什么》。
Imagine if I had a magic wand, and I could make the world 1% better.
想象我有一根魔杖，能让世界变得好1%。
You wouldn't be able to tell.
你根本就看不出来。
Nothing would really change very much.
一切都不会有太大的变化。
But if I took that 1% and compounded it year by year, over time we would notice that.
但如果我们每一年都叠加那1%，慢慢地，你会发现世界的改变。
That very mild 1% progress is 'Protopia.'
那微小的1%变化的过程叫做‘进托邦’。
We are very slowly crawling towards betterment.
我们在缓慢地朝着更好前进。
Protopia is a direction. It's not a destiny.
进托邦是一个方向，而不是命中注定。
I bought into the hippie perspective.
我接受了嬉皮士的观点。
I wanted that small is beautiful, the Henry David Thoreau, simplified "Walden" life.
我想要那种小即是美，亨利·大卫·梭罗那种简化的《瓦尔登湖》生活。
It was the big systems that I didn't trust.
我不相信的是大的体系。
The big technology, the big corporations- but I did go to Asia, and there, things began to change.
大的技术、大的公司-不过我去了亚洲，那里的情况在发生变化。
I began to live in very remote parts of Asia that had no technology.
我住在亚洲一个没有技术的偏远地区。
It was like being on a time machine.
感觉像是时光穿越一样。
I was transported back centuries- a city like Kathmandu that had no vehicles whatsoever- to Northern Afghanistan.
我回到了几百年前的北阿富汗，一个像加德满都那样没有任何交通工具的城市。
These towns there without electricity.
那些城镇没有电力。
And then there were these cities, Hong Kong, Tokyo, right before my eyes, were emerging out of the ground.
然后是香港、东京这样的城市拔地而起，赫然出现在我眼前。
So I would go by a rice paddy, and then I would come back a couple years later, and there would be like factories and people who had money.
我经过了稻田，几年后我再回去，发现那里有了工厂和富人。
Right before my eyes, I saw what technology was bringing people.
就在我眼前，我看到了技术带给人们的改变。
So that was the first glimmers of changing my mind about what this stuff was really about.
那是我第一次改变对这些东西真正意义的看法。
Part of Protopia is to envision a desirable future.
进托邦的部分含义就是想象出一个人们向往的未来。
The problem so far is that a lot of those visions of the future are dystopias.
现在的问题是，人们对未来的很多想象都是反乌托邦的。
People have trouble imagining a world filled of technology, where it's a world that they want to live because the robots are gonna take over and kill us all: the rogue AI, or AI taking over, AI trampling us.
人们很难去想象一个充满科技的世界，一个他们想要生活的世界，因为机器人会接管并杀死所有人：失常的人工智能，或者人工智能接管人类，人工智能践踏我们。
The problem with dystopia is that it's just not sustainable.
反乌托邦的问题在于它是不可持续的。
In history, dystopias just don't last long.
在历史上，反乌托邦不会持续太久。
The first thing that happens is the war lords, in their greed, install some form of order.
第一件会发生的事就是军阀，他们会出于贪婪建立某种形式的秩序。
It's not an order that we prefer, but it's a form of order.
那并不是我们想要的秩序，但它是秩序的一种形式。
Utopia has a similar problem, in that it's actually not a desirable place.
乌托邦也有类似的问题，因为它实际上并不是一个理想的地方。
First of all, it's impossible: there can't really be a world that has no problems.
首先，它是不可能的：不可能有一个没有问题的世界。
I think if you made an eternal world that was forever getting worse, and an eternal world that never changed, the way you punish someone eternally is you put 'em in the world that doesn't ever change.
如果你创造一个永远都在变坏的世界，和一个永远不会改变的世界，那么如果你想惩罚某人，就把他放在那个永远不会改变的世界里吧。
There is a role, if not a duty, for Protopia, in helping us to imagine what that preferable future would be like.
进托邦有一个角色，如果不是责任的话，那就是帮助我们想象那个更好的未来会是什么样子。
After almost a decade traveling, I came back.
在旅行了近十年之后，我回来了。
I decided to ride my bicycle across to see the U.S., which I'd never seen.
我决定骑自行车去看看我从未见过的美国。
I was attracted to the Amish.
我被阿米什人吸引了。
In my initial interactions with them, they weren't anti-technology.
最初我与他们交流时，他们并不反对科技。
They actually liked to hack technology to work around their own rules.
实际上，他们喜欢绕开技术，用自己的规则去工作。
I became interested in how did they actually decide which technologies to accept and which didn't.
我对他们如何决定接受或拒绝哪些技术比较感兴趣。
Americans, and my friends, and myself, we are also choosing technologies.
美国人，我的朋友，还有我自己，都在选择技术。
Should I have Twitter or not? Should I have a phone or not?
我要不要用推特？我要不要用手机？
Do I wanna have an electric car or not?
要不要买一辆电动汽车？
But we aren't choosing very deliberately, and we are certainly not doing it collectively.
但我们的选择并非是刻意的，而且也不是集体作出决定。
That's what I discovered the Amish are doing- is they actually have criteria to help them make those choices.
我发现阿米什人就是这么做的，他们其实有标准去帮助自己做选择。
And their criteria is: 'Will this technology keep our communities together and spend as much time with our communities versus going out?'
他们的标准是：这项技术是否会让我们这个群体在一起度过更多时间，而不是分散各处？
And that's one of the reasons why they're actually embracing cell phones.
那就是他们接受手机的原因之一。
They've been very slow, but they are embracing cell phones, because their communities are not contiguous, they're actually kind of broken up.
他们接纳手机的速度很慢，但是在接纳中，因为他们的群体并没有聚集在一起，他们其实是分散的。
And they found, big surprise, that the phone actually brings their communities together.
他们发现，出人意料的是，手机其实会让整个社群聚集在一起。
Everything is optimized.
所有事情都得到了优化。
And technologies, they feel, take them away from that, they're going to reject.
如果他们觉得某些技术会剥夺他们的团聚，他们便会拒绝。
And technologies that would enable them to do that, they're going to embrace.
而能让他们团聚的技术，他们便会接受。
The more important point for Protopia is that they have those criteria that they use to govern what technologies that they want to use.
对进托邦来说更重要的一点是，他们有这些标准来管理他们想要使用的技术。
Most of the problems in the future are gonna be caused by the technologies today- that's the Protopian view.
未来的大多数问题都将是由今天的技术引起的——这是进托邦的观点。
But, the solution to the problems made by those new technologies is not less technology.
但是，解决这些新技术带来的问题并不是减少技术。
It's not to dial back the technology.
并不是降低技术水平。
It's not to stop AI. It's to make better AI.
并不是阻止人工智能，而是创造更好的人工智能。
I want to emphasize, of course, that this is not a prediction, because every prediction is wrong.
当然，我想强调的是，这不是一项预测，因为所有预测都是错的。
These are scenarios. These are wishes. This is aspirational.
这些都是情景。是愿望。是令人振奋的向往。
But just like "Star Trek" has been an inspiration to so many people making things, because they said, "I wanna make that communicator."
但就像《星际迷航》启发了很多人去做东西，他们说，“我想做一个交流器。”
And that's basically what we got with smartphones.
手机基本就是起的这个作用。
They can be instrumental and powerful, to actually have a picture of something that we're aiming for in order to actualize it.
它们很实用，也很强大，能让我们真正了解自己的目标，以便实现它。
'We have ignition.'
“我们点火了。”
I don't think there is a dark side.
我不认为有什么黑暗面。
Part of Protopia is it incorporates pessimism.
进托邦有一部分包含了悲观主义。
It actually says the problems are valuable.
它想说的是问题是有价值的。
When you drive a car down the road, you need an engine to move it forward and you need brakes to steer.
开车的时候，我们需要引擎来推动它向前，需要刹车来控制方向。
The vehicle technology requires both the engine of optimism and the breaks of pessimism in order to steer.
汽车技术既需要乐观主义的发动机，也需要悲观主义的刹车，才能实现驾驶。
The entire world should endorse Protopia.
全世界都应该支持进托邦。
I don't believe in an endpoint- that we're moving in some way to some final endpoint, some perfection.
我不相信终点——我们正以某种方式走向终点，某种完美。
We are moving, rather, in directions.
而是我们在向着某些方向前进。
And Protopia is a direction, which is moving towards increasing options, more choices in the world.
而进托邦就是一个方向，它在朝着有更多选择、更多选项的世界前进。
