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Five years ago, I stood on the TED stage and warned about the dangers of super-intelligence.
五年前，我站在TED舞台上，预警了超级智能的危险。
I was wrong.
我错了。
It went even worse than I thought.
情况比我想象的还要糟糕。
I never thought governments would let AI companies get this far without any meaningful regulation.
我从没想过政府会在没有任何有效的监管下让人工智能公司发展成这样，
And the progress of AI went even faster than I predicted.
而且AI的进步比我预期的还要快。
Look, I showed this abstract landscape of tasks where the elevation represented how hard it was for AI to do each task at human level.
这是一幅任务的抽象图，其中海拔代表了AI要以人类水平完成每项任务的难度。
And the sea level represented what AI could be back then.
而海平面代表了AI曾经的水平。
And boy or boy, has the sea been rising fast ever since.
从那以后，海平面一直在快速提高。
But a lot of these tasks have already gone blub blub blub blub blub blub.
有很多任务已经被水淹没。
And the water is on track to submerge all land, matching human intelligence at all cognitive tasks.
海水势必淹没所有的土地，在认知任务中与人类智慧媲美。
This is a definition of artificial general intelligence, AGI, which is the stated goal of companies like OpenAI, Google DeepMind and Anthropic.
这就是通用人工智能的定义，也是OpenAI、谷歌DeepMind和Anthropic等公司的既定目标。
And these companies are also trying to build super-intelligence, leaving human intelligence far behind.
这些公司也在努力打造超级智能，远超人类智能。
And many think it'll only be a few years, maybe, from AGI to super-intelligence.
许多人认为，从AGI到超级智能，可能只需要几年的时间。
So when are we going to get AGI?
我们什么时候能做出AGI呢？
Well, until recently, most AI researchers thought it was at least decades away.
直到最近，大多数人工智能研究人员还认为至少还有几十年的时间。
And now Microsoft is saying, "Oh, it's almost here."
微软说：“哦，差不多了。”
We're seeing sparks of AGI in ChatGPT-4, and the Metaculus betting site is showing the time left to AGI plummeting from 20 years away to three years away in the last 18 months.
我们在ChatGPT-4中看到了AGI的苗头，而Metaculus博彩网站显示，在过去的18个月中，距离AGI时间从20年后骤降至3年后。
And leading industry people are now predicting that we have maybe two or three years left until we get outsmarted.
行业领袖现在预测我们距离被人工智能超越也许还有两三年的时间。
So you better stop talking about AGI as a long-term risk, or someone might call you a dinosaur stuck in the past.
所以你还是不要再说AGI是一种长期风险了，不然有人会认为你是头被困在过去的恐龙。
It's really remarkable how AI has progressed recently.
AI最近的进步真是太了不起了。
Not long ago, robots moved like this.
不久前，机器人是这样移动的。
Now they can dance.
现在它们可以跳舞了。
Just last year, Midjourney produced this image.
就在去年，Midjourney生成了这张照片。
This year, the exact same prompt produces this.
今年，相同的指示生成了这样的结果。
Deepfakes are getting really convincing.
深度伪造以假乱真。
I’m going to show you some magic.
深度伪造的汤姆·克鲁斯：我要变个魔术。
It's the real thing.
这是真的。
I mean ... It's all...the real...thing. Or is it?
我的意思是……全部……都是……真的。是吗？
