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Chinese lenders to report record profits
While their western counterparts struggle for survival, Chinese banks are now the first, second and third largest in the world by market capitalisation and will report record full-year 2008 profits in the coming weeks.
But the days of surging profits are probably over for now as the country's economy stalls and the government leans on the state lenders to fund the bulk of its Rmb4,000bn ($585bn) stimulus programme.
Bank of Communications, 18.6 per cent owned by HSBC, will be the first Chinese bank to report its 2008 earnings tonight, with analysts expecting full-year profit growth of 35 per cent.
That is roughly in line with the government's announcement of a 30.6 per cent increase to Rmb583bn in after-tax profits for the entire Chinese banking sector last year – a respectable performance but about 20 percentage points slower than analysts were expecting six months ago.
Annual profit growth will mask a steep decline in the latter part of last year as the economy stalled and interest rate margins contracted as the government cut benchmark rates to jumpstart domestic growth.
“We estimate that China banks' aggregate earnings dropped by an average of 44 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2008,” Sherry Lin, a Credit Suisse analyst, said in a research note.
Credit Suisse expects the largest banks, such as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China, to fare better than smaller domestic rivals but the coming year is expected to be tough on the entire sector.
Analysts are now forecasting a modest fall in aggregate bank profits in 2009, a significant downgrade from the high-teens profit growth for this year that were expected in mid-2008.
The collapse of Chinese exports, a slowing property sector and contracting margins are big reasons why many have turned bearish on the banking sector.
