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First quarter to be calmer
The backdrop will be a massive stimulus package as long-term investors focus on long-term bargains
What about early 2009, the first quarter of 2009? What are your expectations for that? what it looks like? how are you advising your clients?
Because it seems like we have been really sort of testing the lowest lately. we haven't seen the 700 points swings and in recent weeks like we saw just a few months ago. I mean it seems like a bit of calming. what is the 2009 bringing? Is that really a new chapter for the market?
It will be a new chapter for the market. I think when we / come to January, we typically see a January effect meaning that you get a fresh batch of / 401K money, that gets largely put into marketplace that would probably happen again. We will probablly see a stabilizing of energy prices that gonna be a positive. you know, precipitated oil and energy prices have been tied to the global economic slowdown, and probably very overdown / . So I think that is gonna be another key theme as we're come to the first quarter of next year. In large part we are here a whole lot more in the February March time plan about physical stimulus. What’s gonna look like and who is gonna impact and how quickly we get that move forwardm, that's gonna be very important for the first quarter of next year, but in terms of what to tell / the investors. this is the time that you start looking at your profolio, January is always a time sort of reset. Look at your exposure every markets to see if it is appropriate, what is your the risk level is. a long-term investor is gonna see a great bargain as first step for the next year for getting any sort of recovering in this economy / the first quarter of next year. Yeh,it is gonna be time to start looking at stocks again with fresh view towards an improving economy.
where do you think those good bargains are right now in early 2009? where should people be looking in? where should they not be looking?
where you should not be looking in is consumer discretionary it is too soon for that. Maybe it’s too soon for a while. the auto industries is going to get rescue but the auto stocks are not, stay away from that. Certainly, stay away things tied/ ever/ to advertising business model. That’s gonna have a very difficult 2009. Energy stocks will probably be a bargain lows at first half of this year. I think it's time to start looking at those and I think you gonna see a snap back rally and commodity prices , you know, these stabilizing is close to 50 dollars and it ends at 30 dollars. So probably a lot of money will be made there. Technology is gonna continue to see on-going consolidations, so continue to look at these large cap tax stocks that have a pile of cash. Certainly,look at these names that they maybe buying ./which/ We're gonna see more and more that sort of work with first quarter of next year. so your know technology honestly is not for a sight. And energy through the whole come-up plex to avoid the consumer discretionary and avoid the advertising model certainly, avoid anything that sort of related to the auto industry in any way she'll perform.
All right, we're leave it there. Well thank you and appreciate your time.
