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Picture your dream vacation. Maybe you're dying to go to Rio for Carnival.
想象你的梦中假期。也许你非常渴望去里约的嘉年华。
Or you really just want to hang out on a Mexican beach.
或者你只想在墨西哥的海滩上消磨时间。
Or maybe you're going to join me in New Orleans for Jazz Fest.
又或者，也许你想跟我一起去新奥尔良的爵士节。
Now, I know it's less pleasant, but picture, for a moment, one of the most violent places on earth.
现在，我知道没那么愉快，但请想象一下地球上其中一个最暴力的地方。
Did anyone think of the same place?
有人想的是刚才提到的那些地方吗？
Brazil is the most violent country in the world today.
巴西是现今世界上最暴力的国家。
More people have been dying there over the last three years than in Syria.
过去三年间，在巴西死亡的人数比叙利亚还高。
And in Mexico, more people have died over the last 15 years than in Iraq or Afghanistan.
过去十五年间，在墨西哥死亡的人数比伊拉克或阿富汗都要多。
In New Orleans, more people per capita are dying than in war-torn Somalia.
在新奥尔良，人均的死亡人数比战争摧残下的索马里还高。
The fact is, war only results in about 18 percent of violent deaths worldwide.
事实上，全世界的暴力死亡中只有约18%是战争造成的。
Today, you are more likely to die violently
现今，你死于暴力的可能性更高，
if you live in a middle-income democracy with high levels of income inequality and serious political polarization.
如果你依靠中等收入，生活在一个收入高度不平等以及政治剧烈两极化的民主社会里。
The United States has four of the 50 most violent cities on earth.
地球上最暴力的城市，前五十名中就有四名位于美国。
Now, this is a fundamental alteration in the nature of violence, historically. But it's also an opportunity.
这代表暴力的本质在发生根本上的历史性改变。但这也是个机会。
Because while few people can do much to end war, violence in our democracies is our problem.
因为，虽然很少人有能力可以终止战争，但我们民主制度中的暴力正是我们的问题。
And while regular voters are a big part of that problem, we're also key to the solution.
虽然普通选民相当程度上正是问题所在，但也是解决方案的关键所在。
Now, I work at a think tank, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
现在我就职于一个智囊团，叫做卡内基国际和平基金会，
where I advise governments on what to do about violence,
我的职责是向政府提供如何处理暴力的建议，
but the dirty secret is, most policymakers haven't figured out these changes to violence today.
但肮脏的秘密是，大部分的政策制订者还没想通现今的暴力已经有所改变。
They still believe that the worst violence happens in countries at war
他们仍然相信最严重的暴力发生在战争中的国家，
or places that are too poor, too weak, to fight violence and control crime.
或者过于贫穷弱势而无法对抗暴力、控制犯罪的地方。
And that had been my assumption too.
我以前也有过这样的假设。
But if you look at a map of the most violent places on earth, you see something strange.
但如果在地图上标出地球上最暴力的地方，你会发现奇怪的现象。
Some of them are at war, and a few are truly failed states.
当中有些地方是有战争，少部分是真正衰落的国家。
The violence in these places is horrific, but they happen to have small populations, so it actually affects few people.
在这些地方的暴力很可怕，但它们刚好人口不多，所以影响的人数不多。
Then there's South Africa, Brazil, Venezuela. These places are not poor. Maybe they're weak.
接着，还有南非、巴西、委内瑞拉。这些地方并不贫穷。也许它们是弱国。
My research assistant and I mapped places based on how well they delivered on World Bank projects
我和我的研究助理根据各地履行世界银行计划的表现，
and whether they could get public services to their people,
以及能否向公民提供公共服务做为标准列出了一些地区，
and if you did well on both of those, if you could get sanitation and electricity to your people and deliver vaccines,
如果两者都表现良好，如果能给公民提供卫生和电力，施打疫苗，
you were in the upper right-hand quadrant.
这个国家就会在右上的象限中。
And then we overlaid that with a map of places where journalists were being murdered.
接着，我们把这些地区和一份标注了记者被害地点的地图重迭起来。
Some were happening in weak states,
有些记者死于弱国，
but an awful lot of journalists were being killed in places plenty capable of protecting them.
但格外多的记者死于非常有能力保护他们的地方。
I traveled to every settled continent on earth,
我去过地球上每一块有人居住的大陆，
comparing places that had faced massive violence and recovered and those that hadn't, and I kept seeing the same pattern.
把遭受过严重暴力并从中恢复的地方和没有这些状况的地方相比，我发现了一种规律。
I came to call it "privilege violence," because it happened in highly unequal democracies,
我把它称为“特权暴力”，因为这种暴力发生在非常不平等的民主国家中，
where a small group of people wanted to hold on to inordinate power and privilege.
在这里有一小群人想要把持过多的权力和特权。
And if they didn't think they could get those policies past the voters,
如果他们不认为那些政策能被投票通过，
sometimes they would turn to violent groups for help.
有时他们就会转向暴力团体求助。
Drug cartels would finance their campaigns. Organized criminals would help them get out the vote.
毒枭会出自支持他们的竞选活动。组织犯罪份子会协助他们得到选票。
Gangs would suppress the vote. And in exchange, they'd be given free reign, and violence would grow.
帮派会压迫投票。交换条件就是他们能得到自由支配权，暴力因此滋长。
Take Venezuela. It's the most violent country in the world today, if you look at deaths per capita.
以委内瑞拉为例。用人均死亡人数来看，它是现今世界上最暴力的国家。
Twenty years ago, the current regime gained power in legitimate elections,
目前的这个政权在二十年前的正当选举中取得权力，
but they didn't want to risk losing it, and so they turned to gangs, called "colectivos," for help.
但他们不想冒失去权力的风险，所以他们转向帮派“集体党”求助。
The gangs were told to get out the vote for the government and force people to vote for the regime in some neighborhoods
帮派被要求要为政府取得选票，因此会在一些邻里中强迫人民投票给这个政权，
and keep opposition voters away from the polls in others, and, in exchange, they'd be given control.
在其他地方让反对方投票者无法靠近投票所，交换的条件是得到控制权。
But if criminals have control, then police and courts can't do their jobs.
但如果罪犯有控制权，警察和法庭就无法尽他们的职责。
So the second stage in privilege violence is that courts and police are weakened,
所以，特权暴力的第二个阶段就是法庭和警察的力量被削弱，
and politicians politicize budgets, hiring, firing,
政客会从政治上处理预算，进行雇用或开除，
so that they and the violent groups that they collude with stay out of jail.
让他们和共谋的暴力团体能够免于牢狱之灾。
Now, pretty soon, good cops leave, and many that remain become brutal. They start off, usually, with rough justice.
没多久，好警察就会离开，很多留下来的则变得很残酷。通常，他们一开始是执行粗暴的正义。
They kill a drug dealer that they think would be let off by the corrupt courts.
他们会杀死那些他们认为会被腐败法庭放走的毒贩。
But over time, the worst of them realize that there will be no repercussions from the politicians they're in bed with,
但时间长了，他们当中最糟糕的人会发现，他们同流合污的政客会放任他们，
and they go into business for themselves.
因此他们自己也做起这门生意。
In Venezuela, nearly one in three murders is by the security services.
在委内瑞拉，每三起谋杀案中就有近一起是安保服务业的人犯下的。
Now, the poor are hit hardest by violence all over the world,
在全世界各地，受到暴力伤害最深的就是穷人，
but they're hardly going to turn to such predatory cops for help.
但他们几乎不会去向这些掠夺成性的警察求助。
So they tend to form vigilante groups.
所以他们倾向组成义警团体。
But arm a bunch of 18-year-old boys, and pretty soon, they devolve into gangs over time.
但让一群十八岁男孩武装起来，没多久，男孩们就逐渐发展成了帮派。
Other gangs come in, mafias come in, and they offer to protect people from the other criminals and from the police.
其他帮派介入，黑手党介入，这些人主动提议保护人们免受其他罪犯甚至警察的干扰。
Unlike the state, the criminals often try to buy legitimacy.
和国家政府不同，罪犯通常会用买的方式取得合法性。
They give charity. They solve disputes. Sometimes, they even build subsidized housing.
他们会做慈善。他们解决争议。有时，他们甚至会建造补助住房。
The last stage of privilege violence happens when regular people start committing a significant portion of the murder.
特权暴力的最后一个阶段出现的信号是谋杀案有相当大的部分出于普通人之手。
Bar fights and neighborhood arguments turn deadly when violence has become normal and repercussions have evaporated.
酒吧打架、邻坊争执会闹出人命，此时暴力已经成为常态，动起手来根本不计后果。
To outsiders, the culture looks depraved, as if something is deeply wrong with those people.
对局外人来说，这种文化看起来很堕落，好像这些人骨子里就出了问题。
But any country can become this violent when the government is, by turns, absent and predatory.
但任何国家都可能变成这么暴力，如果政府时而无所作为，时而掠夺成性。
Actually, that's not quite true -- it takes one more step for this level of violence to reign.
其实，不尽然如此--还要更进一步，这种程度的暴力才会成为主导。
It takes mainstream society to ignore the problem.
要的是主流社会对问题视而不见。
You'd think that would be impossible, that violence at this level would be unbearable,
你可能会认为那不可能，这种程度的暴力根本不可容忍，
but it's actually quite bearable to people like you and me.
但对你我这样的人来说这并非不能容忍。
That's because, in every society in the world, even the most violent, violence is highly concentrated.
因为，在世界上的每个小区里，即使是在最暴力的小区里，暴力也是高度集中的。
It happens to people on the wrong side of town, people who are poor, often darker,
暴力发生在镇上糟糕的那一侧的人身上，也就是贫穷的人，通常肤色较深，
often from groups that are marginalized, groups that mainstream society can separate ourselves from.
通常来自被边缘化的族群，那些主流社会可以置身事外的族群。
Violence is so concentrated that we're shocked when the pattern deviates.
暴力太过集中，因此当常规偏离轨道时，我们会很吃惊。
In Washington, DC, in 2001, a young white college-educated intern went missing after a hike in Northwest DC,
2001年，在华盛顿特区，一位受过大学教育的年轻白种实习生到华盛顿特区西北区健行之后就失踪了，
and her case was in the papers nearly every day.
报纸几乎天天都有报导她的案例。
On the other side of town, a black man had been killed every other day that year.
在小镇的另一侧，那一年，每两天就有一名黑人被杀害。
Most of those cases never made the papers even once.
这些案例大部分根本没有见报的机会。
Middle class society buys their way out of violence. We live in better neighborhoods.
中产阶级社会是用“买”的方式脱离暴力。我们住在比较好的邻里。
Some people buy private security. And we also tell ourselves a story.
有些人能买私人保安。我们还会自说自话。
We tell ourselves that most of the people who are killed are probably involved in crime themselves.
我们告诉自己，大部分被杀的人可能自己本身就有涉及犯罪。
By believing that somehow some people deserve to be murdered,
通过从某种角度相信某些人被谋杀是罪有应得，
otherwise good people allow ourselves to live in places where life chances are so deeply skewed.
我们其他好人就能容许我们自己住在生活机会非常不公平的地方。
We allow ourselves. Because, after all, what else can you do?
我们允许自己这么做。因为，毕竟，还能怎么做？
Well, it turns out, quite a lot.
事实上，我们能做的很多。
Because violence today is not largely the result of war but is because of rotten politics in our democracies,
因为现今的暴力并非主要由战争造成，而是由民主制度的腐败政治造成，
regular voters are the greatest force for change.
一般选民正是能带来改变的最大力量。
Consider the transformation of Bogotá.
想想波哥大的改革。
In 1994, Colombia's incoming president was caught taking millions of dollars in campaign contributions from the Cali drug cartel,
1994年，哥伦比亚即将上台的总统被逮到收取了卡利贩毒集团的数百万美金竞选活动献金，
and the capital was overrun with gangs and paramilitary groups.
首都也满是帮派和准军事组织团体。
But fed-up voters overcame really rabid partisanship,
但忍无可忍的选民克服了疯狂的党派偏护，
and they delivered nearly two-thirds of the vote to an independent candidate,
将近三分之二的选票投给独立候选人，
enough to really overcome business as usual.
足以真正克服“照旧”的现象。
On Mayor Mockus's first day in office, the police barely bothered to even brief him on homicide,
莫茨库斯市长上任的第一天，警方几乎懒得向他简报凶杀的情况，
and when he asked why, they just shrugged and said, "It's just criminals killing criminals."
他问为什么，而他们只是耸肩说：“不过就是罪犯杀罪犯。”
The corrupt city council wanted to give police even more impunity for brutality.
腐败的市议会还想给警方更多暴行免责的特权。
It's a really common tactic that's used worldwide
这是全世界常见的战略，
when politicians want to posture as tough on crime but don't actually want to change the status quo.
当政客想要装作对犯罪采取强悍态度但又不想真正改变现状时就会采用。
And research shows it backfires all over the world.
研究显示，在全世界，结果都是事与愿违。
If you throw a lot of low-level offenders into jails,
如果你把很多小犯罪者关入监狱，
usually already overcrowded jails, they learn from each other and they harden.
通常是已经挤满了人的监狱，他们会互相学习，从而变得更强硬。
They start to control the prisons, and from there, the streets.
他们会开始控制监狱，接着再进一步控制街头。
Instead, Mockus insisted that police begin investigating every death.
莫茨库斯反而坚持警方要开始调查每一起死亡。
He fought the right-wing city council, and he abandoned SWAT-style police tactics.
他对抗右翼的市议会，他舍弃警察特种部队式的战略。
And he fought the left-wing unions and fired thousands of predatory cops.
他对抗左翼的公会，开除了数千名掠夺成性的警察。
Honest police were finally free to do their jobs.
诚实的警察终于可以好好做他们的工作了。
Mockus then challenged citizens. He asked the middle class to stop opting out of their city,
接着，莫茨库斯去挑战市民。他要求中产阶级停止置身于城市之外，
to follow traffic laws and otherwise behave as if they shared the same community of fate.
要遵守交通法则，行为举止要像是他们也得共同承担这个社会的命运。
He asked the poor to uphold social norms against violence, often at immense personal risk.
他要求穷人要支持对抗暴力的社会规范，通常这要冒着很大个人风险。
And he asked the wealthy to give 10 percent more in taxes, voluntarily. Sixty-three thousand people did.
他也要求有钱人要自愿多付10%的税。六万三千人照做了。
And at the end of the decade that spanned Mayor Mockus's two terms in office, homicide in Bogotá was down 70 percent.
在横跨莫茨库斯市长两任任期的十年到尾声时，波哥大的凶杀下降了七成。
People in places with the most violence, whether it's Colombia or the United States, can make the biggest difference.
在最暴力的地方生活的人们，不论是哥伦比亚或是美国，都可以做到最大的改变。
The most important thing we can do is abandon the notion that some lives are just worth less than others,
我们能做的重中之重是不要再认为有些人的命贱于其他人，
that someone deserves to be raped or murdered, because after all, they did something,
也不要认为有人被强暴或谋杀是罪有应得，因为，毕竟，他们自己种下了因，
they stole or they did something to land themselves in prison where that kind of thing happens.
他们偷窃或做了什么让他们入狱，而监狱正是强暴或谋杀会发生的地方。
This devaluing of human life, a devaluing we barely admit even to ourselves,
这种将人命贬低的行为，这种我们都不愿承认自己会有的贬低行为，
is what allows the whole downward spiral to begin.
成为开端纵容事态每况愈下。
It's what allows a bullet shot in a gang war in Rio
正是这种行为纵容了里约帮派斗争打出的子弹
to lodge in the head of a two-year-old girl climbing on a jungle gym nearby.
射入一个两岁小女孩的头颅，女孩当时在附近攀登架上玩耍。
And it's what allows a SWAT team hunting for a meth dealer in Georgia
正是这种行为纵容了警察特种部队在乔治亚州追捕冰毒毒贩时
to throw a flash bang grenade into the crib of a little boy, exploding near his face and maiming him for life.
把闪光弹丢到小男孩的婴儿床上，几乎炸掉了他的脸，让他一辈子残废。
The fact is, most violence everywhere happens to people on the wrong side of town at the wrong time,
事实是，不论在哪里，大部分遇到暴力的人都是在糟糕的时间身处在镇上糟糕的那一侧，
and some of those people are from communities that we consider quite different.
并且当中有些人来自我们眼里非比寻常的小区。
Some of them are people who have done horrible things.
当中有些人曾经做过可怕的事。
But reducing violence begins with privileging every human life,
但暴力的减少始于将“特权”给予每一个人，
both because it's right and because only by prizing each life as worthy of at least due process,
因为这是正确之举，也因为只有认定每个生命都至少值得获得合法诉讼程序，
can we create societies in which the lives of innocents are safe.
我们才有可能创造出让无辜的人能够安全过生活的社会。
Second, recognize that today, inequality within our countries is a vastly greater cause of violence than war between countries.
第二，要知道现今暴力的最大成因并非国家之间的战争，而是国家内部的不平等。
Now, inequality leads to violence for a whole host of reasons,
不平等会导致暴力，这背后的理由非常多，
but one of them is that it lets us separate ourselves from what's happening on the other side of town.
其中之一，是它会让我们把自己和镇的另一侧所发生的事情切割开来。
Those of us who are middle-class or wealthy,
我们当中那些中产阶级或富裕的人，
who are benefiting from these systems, have to change them at immense cost to ourselves.
那些从这些体制受惠的人，必须要付出巨大的代价来改变体制。
We have to pay enough taxes and then demand that our governments put good teachers in other kids' schools
我们必须要缴足够的税，接着要求我们的政府安排好老师到其他孩子的学校教书，
and well-trained police to protect other peoples' neighborhoods.
安排训练有素的警察来保护其他人的街坊。
But, of course, that's not going to do any good if the government is stealing the money or fueling the violence,
但当然，如果政府会贪污或助长暴力，那也还是行不通，
and so we also need better politicians with better incentives.
所以我们也需要更好的政治人物，出于更好的动机来做事。
The fact is, we actually know a lot about what it takes to reduce violence.
事实是，我们其实很清楚减少暴力需要做的是什么。
It's policies like putting more cops in the few places where most violence occurs.
是“集中警力到少数严重暴力频发地”这样的政策。
But they don't fit easily into the boxes of the Left or the Right,
但这些政策不容易符合左派或右派的框架，
and so you need really honest politicians who are willing to buck knee-jerk partisanship and implement solutions.
所以会需要真正诚实的政治人物，他们愿意反抗一触即发的党派偏护，并去实践解决方案。
And if we want good politicians to run, we need to start respecting politicians.
如果我们希望好的政治人物出来竞选，我们就得开始尊重政治人物。
There's also a lot we can do to fight privilege violence in other countries.
要对抗其他国家的特权暴力，还有很多是我们能做的。
The most violent regimes tend to be fueled by drugs,
最暴力的政权似乎背后都有毒品的支持，
and then they launder the profits through financial systems in New York and London,
接着，他们会将利益洗白，通过纽约和伦敦的金融体制来洗，
through real-estate transactions, and through high-end resorts.
通过房地产交易来洗，以及通过高档度假胜地来洗。
If you use drugs, know your supply chain top to bottom,
如果你吸毒，先从头到尾了解一下整个供应链，
or admit the amount of pain you're willing to cause others for your own pleasure.
不然就承认你愿意为了自身的享乐愿意造成他人多少痛苦吧。
Meanwhile, I would love to see one of those tourist sites team up with investigative journalists and create a little tiny icon
同时，我希望能见到某个游客景点能和调查记者合作，设计一个小图示，
right next to the one for free WiFi and if a place has a swimming pool,
就标在免费无线网络和是否有游泳池的图标旁边，
there could be a little tiny gun for "likely criminal money-laundering front."
图标可以是一支小小的枪，代表“疑似犯罪洗钱的掩护”。
But until then, if you're booking a place in a dangerous country,
但在那之前，如果你要在危险国家中预订一个住处，
whether that's Jamaica or New Orleans, do a little web research, see if you can see any criminal ties.
不论是牙买加或者新奥尔良，先上网作点功课，看看是否牵涉犯罪。
And, to make that easier, support legislation that makes our financial systems more transparent
若要让这更容易做到，就要支持让我们的金融体制更透明的立法，
things like banning anonymous company ownership.
比如禁止匿名持有公司。
Now, this all probably sounds pretty quixotic, kind of like recycling your cans,
上述的操作可能和“回收罐子”一样，听着很美好，
just a tiny drop in the ocean of a gigantic problem, but that's actually a misconception.
但对于超级大的问题而言不过是沧海一粟，但那其实是错误的观念。
Homicide has been falling for centuries. Battle deaths have been dropping for decades.
数世纪以来，凶杀都在下降。数十年来，战争死亡人数都在下降。
In places where people have demanded change, violent death has fallen, from Colombia to New York City,
在人民要求改变的地方，从哥伦比亚到纽约市暴力死亡人数都有所下降，
where homicide is down 85 percent since 1990.
自1990年起凶杀案已经减少了85%。
The fact is, violence will always be with us, but it's not a constant.
事实是，暴力会永远和我们共存，但它不是一个不变的常数。
It has been falling for centuries, and it could fall further faster.
数世纪来它一直在下降，而且还可以下降得更快。
Could it drop by 25 percent in the next quarter century, a third?
有没有可能在接下来的二十五年再降25%？三分之一？
Many of us actually think it could.
我们许多人真心认为可以。
I think of all the kids who'd grow up with their dads, all the families that get their sisters back, their brothers.
我想到了每一个有父亲陪伴成长的孩子，每一个能看到兄弟姐妹回家的家庭。
All it needs is one small push. It needs us to care. Thank you.
这一切要的只是一臂之力。要的是我们去在乎。谢谢。
