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Hello. This is 6 Minute English from BBC Learning English. I’m Neil.
大家好。这里是 BBC 学习英语栏目的六分钟英语。我是内尔。
And I’m Sam.
我是萨姆。
Predicting the future is not easy but that’s exactly the job of opinion pollsters —— researchers who ask people questions to discover what they think about certain topics.
预测未来并不容易，但这正是民意调查人员的工作，他们向人们提问，以探知人们对某些问题的看法。
Often their aim is predicting which political party will win in election by asking members of the public how they intend to vote.
通常，他们询问人们打算投票给谁，以此来预测哪个政党将在选举中获胜。
But predicting the future is never one hundred percent accurate, and opinion polls don’t always get it right.
但是，人们不能百分之百准确地预测未来，民意调查也一样。
In 2016, few pollsters predicted a victory for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US presidential election.
2016年，几乎没有民调机构预测唐纳德·特朗普会在美国总统大选中战胜希拉里·克林顿。
And in the 2020 US elections, most polls predicted Trump would lose to Joe Biden by a much larger amount than he actually did.
在2020年的美国大选中，大多数民调预测特朗普将以比实际情况大得多的票数差输给乔·拜登。
These mistakes, sometimes called misfires —— when things do not work in the way intended - have damaged the reputation of opinion pollsters.
这些错误，或者叫“哑火”（事情不按预期的方式进行），损害了民意调查机构的声誉。
In this programme we’ll be taking a look into the opinion polling industry and, of course, learning some useful new vocabulary as well.
在本期节目中，我们将了解民意调查行业，当然，我们还将学习一些有用的新词汇。
But first I have a question for you, Sam, and it’s about another time when the opinion polls got it wrong.
但首先我有一个问题要问你，萨姆，关于另一个出错的民意调查。
Few pollsters predicted that Britain would vote to leave the European Union in the 2016 Brexit referendum which, in the end, it did.
2016年英国全民公投的时候，几乎没有民调机构预测英国会投票脱欧，但它最终脱欧了。
But what was the final split between those who voted to leave and those who wanted to remain?
那么，支持和反对脱欧的票数比是多少呢？
Was it: a) 51 leave to 49 remain? b) 52 leave to 48 remain? c) 52 remain to 48 leave?
是a) 51票支持，49票反对？还是b) 52票支持，48票反对？还是c) 52票反对，48票支持？
I think it was b) 52 percent voted to leave and 48 percent to remain.
我认为是b) 52%的人支持脱欧，48%反对。
OK, Sam, I’ll reveal the answer at the end of the programme.
好的，萨姆，在节目最后我揭晓答案。
One of the biggest polling companies was founded by George Gallup.
最大的民调公司之一是由乔治·盖洛普创立的。
Born in 1901 on a farm in Iowa, Gallup was a student of journalism.
盖洛普于1901年出生在爱荷华州的一个农场，是一名新闻专业的学生。
He wanted to know people’s opinion on a range of subjects and came up with a simple idea —— why not try asking them?
他想知道人们对一系列问题的看法，于是想出了一个简单的办法——直接去问大家。
Here’s G Elliot Morris, a data journalist for ‘The Economist’, explaining more to BBC World Service programme, more or less…
下面是《经济学人》的数据记者，G·埃利奥特·莫里斯的一段话，他在BBC世界服务栏目中或多或少提到过一些。
And he publishes his dissertation on this —— how to measure what people want, basically.
盖洛普发表过这方面的论文，基本上是讲如何衡量人们的需求。
And he gets hired by a much bigger advertising agency in New York called Young and Rubicam.
他受雇于纽约一家更大的广告公司扬·罗必凯。
And they basically give him a blank cheque to do their research, to figure out how to call people, how to talk to them, to figure out if they remember or liked a certain product.
公司基本上会给他一张空白支票，让他去做研究，弄清楚如何称呼别人，如何与他们交谈，弄清楚他们是否记得或喜欢某个产品。
Basically to figure out early methodologies in advertising.
基本上就是去摸清广告宣传的门道。
And then by 1931 or so, he's wondering: well, if it works for toothpaste, why not politics?
到1931年左右，他开始想：如果这能帮助促销牙膏，何不用在政治上？
George Gallup tried to figure out what customers wanted to buy.
乔治·盖洛普试过探知顾客想买什么。
If you figure something out, you finally understand it or find a solution to a problem after thinking about it a lot.
“to figure something out”意为最终弄明白某事，或者在思考了很久之后找到了解决问题的办法。
Later he was hired by a New York advertising agency to find out people’s opinion of consumer products like toothpaste and soft drinks.
后来，他受雇于纽约一家广告公司，调查人们对牙膏和软饮料等消费品的看法。
George was given a blank cheque – an unlimited amount of money and freedom to do his job.
乔治得到了一张空白支票，意味着不限量的工作经费和工作自由。
At this time, polling was focused on consumer preferences, not politics.
当时，民调的重点是消费者的喜好，而不是政治问题。
But asking people about their political views is a lot more complicated than asking them about toothpaste.
但询问人们的政治观点要比询问他们对牙膏看法复杂得多。
Making accurate election predictions depends on polling a sample group of people who accurately represent the population as a whole.
要对选举结果做出准确的预测，就必须选取能准确代表所有人的样本进行调查。
One of the reasons for pollsters failure to predict Trump’s election in 2016 is that they didn’t ask enough white, non-college educated voters.
民调机构未能预测特朗普2016年当选的原因之一是，他们调查的未受过大学教育的白人选民不够多。
So, polling is a very complex process, one which is never totally reliable according to G Elliot Morris, speaking again here to BBC World Service’s, more or Less…
所以，民意调查是一个非常复杂的过程。G·埃利奥特·莫里斯认为，民调永远不是完全可靠的。他在BBC世界服务栏目中也解释过一些。
If people were understanding this process, that’s generating all these polls, then they would understand polls as less precise tools.
如果人们理解民调的过程，那么他们就会明白民调并不精确。
Tools that definitely can’t offer the laser-like predictive accuracy we’ve come to expect from them, then the difference between polling’s’ expectations and performance wouldn’t be so stark.
民调不是我们期待的那样，它无法做到激光般的准确。明白了这一点，民调预测结果和实际情况之间的差异就不那么明显了。
Opinion polls can estimate the outcome of an election but they can’t give us laser-like accuracy.
民意调查可以估计选举的结果，但它并不像激光般准确。
If you describe something as laser-like you mean it is very accurate and focused, like a laser.
说某样东西是激光般的，意思是它非常准确，就像激光只聚于一点。
If people understand how hard it is to predict the future, they might be more realistic about how accurate opinion polls can be.
如果人们知道预测未来有多难，他们可能会认清现实，知道民调本就不准确。
Then, differences between a prediction and the final result wouldn’t be so stark —— obvious and easily visible, or harsh.
那么，预测和最终结果之间的差异就不会那么明显了。“stark” 意为明显的、容易看到的或严酷的。
Predicting the future is difficult, otherwise everyone would be a lottery winner by now!
预测未来是很困难的，否则到现在每个人都中过彩票了！
Maybe it’s not opinion polls that are broken but our desire to know the future that’s the problem.
也许不是民意调查的错，我们对预知未来的渴望才是问题所在。
OK, it’s time to reveal the answer to my question about the Brexit referendum.
好了，现在是时候公布关于英国脱欧公投问题的答案了。
I said the final result was 52 percent for leave and 48 percent for remain.
我说最终结果是52%的人支持脱欧，48%的人反对。
Which was… the correct answer! And another example of an opinion poll misfire —— a situation where something does not work as intended.
回答正确！而且这也是一个民调出错的例子。“misfire" 哑火，意为某事没有按计划进行。
OK, let’s recap the rest of the vocabulary from this programme about opinion pollsters – people who conduct polls asking the public their opinion on particular subjects, especially politics.
好的，让我们回顾一下本期节目中的其它单词。“opinion pollsters” 民意调查人员，他们进行民意调查，询问公众对特定话题的看法，特别是政治话题。
If you figure something out, you finally understand it, or find the solution to a problem after thinking long and hard about it.
“figure something out” 弄明白，或者是经过长时间的努力思考后找到了解决问题的办法。
If someone gives you a blank cheque, you have unlimited money and freedom to complete a task.
有人给你一张“blank cheque” 空白支票，意思就是，你有无限的经费和自由来完成某项任务。
When you describe something as laser-like you mean that it’s very accurate and precise.
形容某物是“laser-like”，意为它非常准确。
And finally, the adjective stark has several meanings including obvious, harsh and plain.
最后，形容词“stark”有很多含义，比如明显的、严酷的和朴素的。
Once again, our six minutes are up. Bye for now! Byebye!
六分钟时间又到了。下期见！再见！
