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The recession was supposed to have begun by now.
经济衰退现在本应该已经开始了。
Last year, as Federal Reserve policymakers relentlessly raised interest rates to combat the fastest inflation in decades, forecasters began talking as though a recession was not a question of “if” but “when.”
去年，美联储政策制定者连续加息以对抗数十年来增长最快的通胀，预测人士于是将衰退视作不是“如果”，而是“何时”的问题来讨论。
Possibly in 2022. Probably in the first half of 2023. Surely by the end of the year.
可能是在2022年。可能是在2023年上半年。肯定是在今年年底之前。
And as recently as December, less than a quarter of economists expected the United States to avoid a recession.
就在去年12月，不到四分之一的经济学家预计美国将避免经济衰退。
But the year is more than half over, and the recession is nowhere to be found.
但今年已经过去了一半，经济衰退的迹象依然无处可寻。
Certainly not in the job market, where the unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent, is hovering near a five-decade low.
就业市场当然没有衰退迹象，3.6%的失业率徘徊在50年来的最低点附近。
Not in consumer spending, which continues to grow, nor in corporate profits, which remain robust.
消费者支出方面也没有衰退迹象，支出还在持续增长，企业利润方面也没有衰退，企业利润依旧强劲。
Not even in the housing market, the industry that is usually most sensitive to rising interest rates, which has shown signs of stabilizing after slumping last year.
即使是通常对利率上升最敏感的房地产市场也没有衰退，在经历了去年的暴跌之后，房地产市场已经显示出企稳的迹象。
At the same time, inflation has slowed significantly, and looks set to keep cooling — offering hope that interest-rate increases are nearing an end.
与此同时，通胀已经显著放缓，而且貌似将继续降温，这为加息接近尾声带来了希望。
After a year spent being surprised by the resilience of the recovery, economists are starting to wonder whether a recession is coming at all.
经济学家们在过去一年里都惊讶于经济复苏的韧性，他们开始怀疑衰退是否真的还会到来。
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US, told us that the chances of a soft landing are higher, referring to the possibility of bringing down inflation without causing an economic downturn.
毕马威美国的首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克表示，软着陆的可能性更高，她指的是在不导致经济下滑的情况下压低通胀的可能性。
“I’m more optimistic than I was six months ago: That’s the good news,” she added.
“我比六个月前更乐观了：这是个好消息。”她补充说。
The public is feeling sunnier, too, though hardly ebullient.
公众情绪也更乐观，尽管还算不上热情洋溢。
Measures of consumer confidence have picked up recently, although surveys show that most Americans still expect a recession, or believe the country is already in one.
衡量消费者信心的指标最近有所回升，尽管调查显示，大多数美国人仍然预计会出现衰退，或者认为美国已经陷入衰退。
There is still plenty that could go wrong, which Ms. Swonk noted.
斯旺克指出，仍有很多地方可能会出问题。
Inflation could, again, prove more stubborn than expected, leading the Fed to press on with interest rate increases to curb it.
事实可能再次证明，通胀比预期的更顽固，从而导致美联储继续加息以遏制通胀。
Or, on the flip side, the steps the Fed has already taken could hit with a delay, sharply cooling the economy in a way that has not surfaced yet.
或者情况相反，美联储已经采取的措施可能来得太迟，从而大幅冷却了经济，但结果还未显现。
And even a slowdown short of a recession could be painful, leading to layoffs that are likely to disproportionately hit Black and Hispanic workers.
即使不是经济衰退，经济放缓也是痛苦的，由此而来的裁员可能会对黑人和西班牙裔员工造成格外严重的打击。
“Soft is in the eye of the beholder,” said Nick Bunker, who is the director of North American economic research at the career site Indeed.
“对软着陆的判断因人而异。”求职网站Indeed的北美经济研究主管尼克·邦克说。
Economists are wary of declaring victory prematurely — burned, perhaps, by past episodes in which they have done just that.
经济学家们对过早宣布胜利持谨慎态度，或许是因为在过去的几次事件中这种做法让他们吃了苦头。
In early 2008, for example, a string of positive economic data led some forecasters to conclude that the United States had managed to navigate the subprime mortgage crisis without falling into a recession; researchers later concluded that one had already begun.
例如，2008年初，一系列积极的经济数据让一些预测人士得出结论，美国已安然度过了次贷危机，没有陷入衰退，但研究人员后来得出结论，衰退已经开始了。
