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A special election for the House may give us clues to what's coming this fall.
众议院的特别选举可能会给我们一些线索，让我们知道今年秋天会发生什么。
You may know the closely divided House and Senate are at stake.
你可能知道，分歧严重的众议院和参议院正处于紧要关头。
Republicans are favored to gain, as the party out of power often does, but they are feeling a little bit less optimistic these days.
就像没有掌权的政党经常会被看好那样，共和党人更有可能获得胜利，但这些天他们感觉不那么乐观了。
Last week, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell acknowledged what the experts say - it's getting harder to see how his party captures the Senate.
上周，参议院共和党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔承认了专家们所说的——他所在的政党赢得参议院选举越来越难。
It's a little hard to hear this, but listen closely to this clip.
这个片段听起来有点困难，但是请仔细听这个片段。
There's probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate.
众议院可能比参议院更有可能倒戈。
Senate races are just different. They're statewide.
参议员竞选会不同。竞选是全州范围内的。
Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.
候选人的素质与结果有很大关系。
He said, candidate quality.
他提到候选人素质。
Republicans have been struggling in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia.
共和党人在宾夕法尼亚和乔治亚等州一直举步维艰。
Where their nominees have been much criticized.
在这里，他们的提名人受到了很多批评。
McConnell also said Republicans have a better chance to win the House.
麦康奈尔还表示，共和党人赢得众议院的机会更大。
And that special election in New York state this week gives us more information.
本周纽约州的特别选举为我们提供了更多信息。
NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro is here. Domenico, good morning.
NPR高级政治编辑兼记者多梅尼科·蒙塔纳罗报道。多梅尼科,早上好。
Hey there, Steve.
嗨，史蒂夫。
OK, just to be clear - not a primary, although we have some more primaries coming up this week.
好吧，需要澄清一下--不是初选，尽管本周我们还会举行更多的初选。
This is not a primary. It's an open seat. It gets decided.
但这不是初选。这是为空缺席位举行的选举。这是确定无疑的。
It's the final-final in New York state, outside of New York City, in the Hudson Valley, the Catskills, rural areas and some urban areas.
这是在纽约州内、纽约市以外的地方、哈德逊山谷、卡茨基尔山、农村地区和一些城市地区举行的决选。
What should we know about it?
我们应该了解什么呢？
Well, this is a race between Democrat Pat Ryan and Republican Marc Molinaro, both local county executives.
这是民主党人帕特·瑞安和共和党人马克·莫利纳罗之间的竞选，两人都是当地县长。
It's to fill out a term for Anthony Delgado, who left Congress to become lieutenant governor of the state.
这是为了填补安东尼·德尔加多的任期职位，他离开国会就任该州副州长。
It's a measure, really, of which party has the enthusiasm right now in a fairly even-divided district.
这实际上是一种衡量，在一个两党势力相当的地区，哪个政党的支持率较高。
You know, Trump won it in 2016. Biden won it in 2020.
特朗普在2016年赢了选举。拜登在2020年赢了选举。
And I often like to look at candidates' ads to see what they're focusing on.
我喜欢看候选人的宣传，看看他们关注什么。
These give you a pretty good idea.
这些会给你一个很好的想法。
First, here's an ad from Ryan, who's an Army veteran.
首先，这是一则来自瑞安的宣传，他是一名退伍军人。
He fought for our families, for our freedom.
他为我们的家庭和自由而战。
And freedom includes a woman's right to choose.
自由包括女性选择的权利。
How can we be a free country if the government tries to control women's bodies?
如果政府试图控制女性的身体，我们怎么能成为一个自由的国家?
Meanwhile, Molinaro is focusing on something entirely different.
与此同时，莫利纳罗正在关注一些完全不同的东西。
Sky-high gas prices.
极高的油价。
Rising crime.
不断上升的犯罪率。
Runaway inflation.
失控的通货膨胀。
Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi are to blame.
乔·拜登和南希·佩洛西是罪魁祸首。
So very dramatic there.
非常戏剧化。
But you can hear how this has become a proxy fight in the messaging wars on abortion rights versus inflation, the two big issues that both parties really want to focus on nationally.
但你可以听到，在堕胎权和通胀的信息战中，这已经变成了一场代理人之争，这是两党都真正希望在全国范围内关注的两大问题。
Well, how big an indicator could a special election like this be?
像这样的特别选举能代表多大的指标呢?
Well, you never want to overread special elections, but they have been indicators in recent years of which party is most fired up and which way elections that are upcoming are headed.
嗯，你永远不会想要过度解读特别选举，但近年来，特别选举一直是哪个政党最活跃，以及即将到来的选举走向何方的指标。
You know, Republicans did well in special elections earlier this cycle,
共和党人在这个周期早期的特别选举中表现不错，
but after the Supreme Court overturned Roe, Democrats have overperformed in places like Minnesota and Nebraska,
但在最高法院推翻罗伊案之后，民主党人在明尼苏达州和内布拉斯加州等地的表现超出了预期，
and Democrats are looking to build on their momentum after a big win in Kansas on an abortion-related ballot measure.
民主党人在堪萨斯州一项与堕胎有关的投票措施上大获全胜后，正寻求进一步发展势头。
With all that said, we should be clear - Republicans still have a good chance to win a lot of seats this fall, and we'll see how things turn out.
说了这么多，我们应该清楚--共和党人仍然有很好的机会在今年秋天赢得很多席位，我们将会看到事情如何发展。
But they've had some difficulty recently.
但他们最近遇到了一些困难。
So what is Donald Trump saying about this, particularly given that so many Republican candidates have pledged fealty to him?
那么唐纳德·特朗普对此有何看法，尤其是考虑到这么多共和党候选人都向他宣誓效忠?
Well, we heard that clip from McConnell, and Trump unloaded on McConnell on his social media platform.
嗯，我们从麦康奈尔那里听到了这个片段，特朗普在社交媒体平台上抨击了他。
He called him a broken-down hack, criticized his wife, Elaine Chao, who you might remember was Trump's labor secretary but resigned over Trump's conduct on January 6.
特朗普称麦康奈尔是一个很差的二流政客，批评他的妻子赵小兰，你可能还记得她是特朗普的劳工部长，但因特朗普1月6日的行为辞职了。
And he said that he thought McConnell should spend more time and money helping Republican Senate candidates get elected.
他说，他认为麦康奈尔应该花更多的时间和金钱帮助共和党参议员候选人当选。
Ironically, though, it's McConnell's outside group that's tied to him, the Senate Leadership Fund, that's spending some quarter-billion dollars in these elections, and Trump is the one who's spending pretty much nothing to support them.
然而，具有讽刺意味的是，麦康奈尔的外部组织参议院领导基金在这些选举中花费了大约25亿美元，而特朗普几乎没有花费任何资金来支持他们。
And McConnell-backed aides really feel like Trump has handed them a slate of candidates who are weaker, who they need to now try to push over the finish line.
麦康奈尔支持的助手们真的觉得特朗普给了他们一批实力较弱的候选人，他们现在需要努力推动这些候选人越过终点线。
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