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【填空答案】
seismologist: n.［C］地震学家
prediction: n. ［C］预测，预报
crack: n. ［C］裂缝
crust: n. ［C］外壳
fault: n. ［C］断层
seismic: adj. 地震的
postulate: v. 假定
cylindrical: adj. 圆柱的
evacuate: v. 疏散
consistently: adv. 一贯地，一向，始终如一地
formula: n. 公式，规则
【听力原文】
Now, you've beenreading articles about the tremendous damage done to life and property by earthquakes.That's why seismologists have been working so hard to develop methods ofearthquake prediction. We can now predict earthquake [assertively] fairly well,but the predictions only locate potential areas of danger. They don't predictthe specific time and location at which an earthquake is likely to occur. TodayI want to introduce to you three prediction models that have been developed.
The firstprediction model looks along earthquake fawlts, those cracks in the Earth's crust,to find what are known as seismic gaps. Seismic gaps are places where the faulthas shown little or no seismic activity for a long time. This theory postulatesthat such places are due for a major shock.
The second modelrelies on phenomena --- like ground flit. Using long cylindrical tubescontaining water, observers noted that ground tilt tended to occur before majorearthquakes. That led them to correctly predict the big Haicheng [HI CHUNG]quake of 1975 --- the first successful earthquake prediction scientists haveever made. A million people were evacuated from that Chinese city before theearthquake struck. Unfortunately, this method hasn't worked consistently, so wecan't say it's been perfected.
The third modelis based on the theory that major earthquakes closely follow a series of minorones. Starting with the measurements and timing of the smaller quakes, acomplex formula calculates the "times of increased probability" of amuch larger quake. Right now, this method, like the first method, cannotpredict specific times and places, but that may change as it is further developed.
For the moment, none of these models can predict with reasonable levels of confidence.
