China's Econ Sizzles, But Flaws Limit Global Role 中国经济尚无力支撑全球发展

尽管中国第三季度经济增长率再次达到了两位数，但国内消费的持续疲软很可能会限制其在美国经济减缓之际支撑世界经济的能力。
While China delivered another quarter of double-digit economic growth, its persistent weakness in consumption is likely to limit how much support the nation can provide to the global economy as the U.S. slows.

周四公布的数据显示，中国经济仍在高速增长，第三季度经济比去年同期增长了11.5%，但在政府采取了预防经济失控的多项措施之后，当季经济增速有所回落。
Data announced Thursday show that China is still growing extremely rapidly, with year-to-year expansion of 11.5% in the third quarter, although the pace of growth has eased after government measures to prevent the economy from spiraling out of control.

最新统计数据还显示，今年消费者支出对经济增长的贡献率要小于去年，对出口的依赖性则在加强。国内消费的增长有助于解决贸易失衡问题，并使中国有更多机会在维持世界经济扩张的问题上发挥更大作用。
The latest statistics also show that consumer spending is accounting for a smaller share of Chinese economic growth this year than last, and the dependence on exports has increased. Stronger consumption would help address trade imbalances and increase the chance of China playing a bigger role in helping sustain the world's economic expansion.

周四公布的数据也包含一些令人鼓舞的消息。第三季度增长率已经从第二季度11.9%这一令人不安的高位回落。尽管通货膨胀率仍处于6.2%的高水平，但也较近期的高点出现了下滑。
Thursday's announcement contained some encouraging news. The third-quarter growth rate was a modest slowdown from the worryingly high 11.9% rate for the second quarter. Inflation, although still high at 6.2%, also has come down slightly from its recent peak.

这一结果足以令政府官员相信近期采取的提高贷款利率和降低出口退税等政策暂且降低了经济过热的风险。分析师目前预计，今后几个月里中国经济的增速还会逐步放缓。
Those results were enough for government officials to claim that their recent policies -- including higher lending costs at banks and lower tax benefits for exporters -- have averted overheating for now. Analysts now forecast a gradual easing in the pace of China's expansion in coming months.

预计中国2008年的国内生产总值(GDP)增幅可能降至11%以下，不过用国际标准衡量，如此增速依然非常可观，尤其是对于中国这个很快将超过德国、成为全球第三大经济体的国家而言。在美国经济陷入衰退的可能性不断加大的情况下，中国经济能否保持高速增长就变得越发重要了。
Growth in gross domestic product is likely to fall below 11% in 2008 -- still extraordinarily fast by global standards, especially for a country that will soon edge out Germany as the world's third-largest economy. Whether China's rapid growth can be maintained has become increasingly important as the possibility of a recession in the U.S. has risen.

Action Economics驻新加坡的经济学家大卫•科恩(David Cohen)说，以前，如果美国经济陷入危机，全球都难以保持增长；现在看来继续维持增长的机会则多了一些，因为随着亚洲经济的迅猛增长，美国的重要性比五、六年前有所降低。
'Previously, when the U.S. would falter, we would see that global growth would evaporate. It seems that there's a little more of a chance of growth being sustained right now,' says David Cohen of Action Economics in Singapore. 'The U.S. is somewhat less important than it was a half-dozen years ago because of the dramatic growth of Asia.'

中国经济在过去几年里的加速增长主要得益于以下两个因素的推动：一是房地产、基础设施和工厂建设的繁荣，另一个则是出口的大幅增长。最近几个月这两个领域的增幅虽有所收窄，但仍维持在很高水平：今年以来投资支出增长了25.7%，而去年同期为27.3%。中国的贸易顺差在第二季度曾猛增74%，但第三季度增长了50%，这主要是由于出口税率的改变和去年的比较基数过高所致。
The acceleration in China's economy in the past few years has had two main drivers: a boom in housing, infrastructure and factory construction, and a dramatic surge in exports. There has been a slight moderation in both areas in recent months, but growth continues at a high rate: Investment spending has expanded by 25.7% so far this year, compared with a 27.3% gain at the same point of 2006. And China's trade surplus, which leapt 74% in the second quarter, increased a mere 50% in the third quarter, a slowdown that mostly reflects tax changes for exporters and a high base of comparison last year.

不过这两种增长来源都存在风险，而且随着中国对这二者的依赖不断增加，风险也在不断累积。热情高涨的企业和本地政府目前投资了大量项目，但其中很多可能会在几年内失去意义，成为经济的累赘。尽管出口制造业因为欧美和日本消费者大量购买中国产品而发展得生机勃勃，但发达国家消费支出的下降可能使之遭受重创。因此，许多来自国内和国外的声音都呼吁中国转变增长模式。
Yet both of those sources of growth hold risks, which have increased as China's reliance on them has grown. Enthusiastic companies and local governments are investing in lots of projects now, but many of them could turn out to be unnecessary in a few years' time, creating a drag on the economy. And while the export-manufacturing sector is humming as consumers in the U.S., Europe and Japan snap up Chinese-made goods, a drop in consumer spending in rich countries could hit it hard. That has prompted many calls, both inside and outside China, for a shift in the country's growth model.

美国财政部长亨利•鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)周二在讲话中表示：“中国向世界证明了它能够实现快速增长，但它能以不同的方式增长，最终实现更明智的增长吗？”他指出，为使经济增长摆脱对重工业、高能耗和出口的依赖，中国需要大胆地进行结构性政策调整。
'China has proven to the world that it can grow fast, but can it grow differently and, ultimately, grow smarter?' U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in a speech on Tuesday. 'Bold structural policies are needed to shift China's growth away from heavy industry, high energy use and dependence on exports.'

中国政府表示它正在向这个方向进行转变。中国国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)发言人李晓超在周四通报国民经济运行情况的新闻发布会上表示，调整投资和消费的关系一直是近年来中国宏观调控的一个重点，目的就是要增加消费对经济增长的贡献。他说，收入增长和社会福利项目使中国消费者的手头更加宽裕了。
China's government says it is moving in that direction. 'Increasing the contribution of consumption to economic growth has been an important focus of our economic policies in the last few years,' Li Xiaochao, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters Thursday as he announced the latest figures. He said wage increases and welfare programs are putting more money in Chinese consumers' pockets.

李晓超表示，根据初步核算，今年前三季度，消费对经济增长的贡献率为37%。而根据国家统计局以前公布的数据，2006年全年消费对经济增长的贡献率为39%。因此这意味着实际上消费的重要性反而下降了。而中国对出口和投资的依赖程度都有所增强：今年前三季度，出口对经济增长的贡献率为21.4%，投资对经济增长的贡献率为41.6%。
Mr. Li said preliminary estimates show consumer spending has accounted for 37% of China's economic growth so far this year. Yet that means consumption is actually becoming relatively less important: It contributed 39% to growth in all of 2006, according to figures previously published by his bureau. And China's dependence on exports, which accounted for 21.4% of economic gains in the first nine months of 2007, as well as on investment, which contributed 41.6%, has increased.

中国经济中出口的作用相对较大而消费支出的作用相对较小是中国的经济增长至今未能对全球经济产生更大推动力的原因之一。中国的建筑热令世界上的原材料和重型设备生产商受益匪浅，但中国的消费者并未购买很多海外商品。
The relatively large role of exports, and the relatively smaller role of consumer spending, in China's economy is one reason why its growth hasn't become more of a driver of activity elsewhere. China's construction boom has benefited the world's producers of raw materials and heavy equipment, but its consumers don't buy many other goods from overseas.

国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)亚太地区事务部副主任史蒂文•杜纳威(Steven Dunaway)曾在10月19日表示，虽然中国和印度等新兴经济大国在全球经济增长中占据了很高比重，但就全球而言，增长的原动力仍来自世界其它国家各自的国内需求，而非由亚洲本地区创造的国内需求所带动。
The big emerging economies of China and India 'do account for a lot of growth, but the initial impetus to growth still comes very much from domestic demand in the rest of the world and not domestic demand generated independently in Asia,' Steven Dunaway, deputy director of the International Monetary Fund's Asia and Pacific department, said on Oct. 19.

这意味着全球经济的发展趋势对中国的重要性不但没有降低反而有所提高了。李晓超称，美国房地产市场的疲软、次级贷款抵押市场危机和油价高企是可能影响中国的主要外部风险。李晓超向记者表示，由于全球经济发展的前景尚存变数，因此对中国的影响也不确定。他还表示，中国政府准备采取必要的政策来确保中国经济快速稳定地增长。
That means trends in the global economy are becoming more, not less, important to China. Mr. Li, the statistics-bureau spokesman, said the weakening U.S. real-estate market, the fallout from the subprime-mortgage crisis, and high oil prices are major global risks that could affect China. 'Because prospects for world economic development are uncertain, there is also some uncertainty about the impact on our nation,' Mr. Li told reporters, adding that his government is ready to take what policies are necessary to ensure 'the fast and stable growth' of the Chinese economy.

Andrew Batson