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经济学人:贝卢斯科尼意欲重掌大权 蒙蒂将如何阻止?

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Europe Italian politics

欧洲 意大利政治
Will Monti run for prime minister?
How to prevent Silvio Berlusconi from returning to power
With his restrained smile, laconic manner and dry humour, Mario Monti, Italy’s prime minister, makes a good sphinx. And that is the role he will have to play until the budget for 2013 is approved by parliament, probably on December 21st. Only then will he be able to cast aside the neutrality he must maintain as head of a technocratic government and announce whether he plans to stand in the general election now expected in February.


The early vote became inevitable on December 8th when Mr Monti told Giorgio Napolitano, the president, that he intended to resign. By then, he had lost the support of Silvio Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (PdL) movement. The 76-year-old Mr Berlusconi then said he would be his party’s candidate for prime minister. He later cast doubt on this, even making a bizarre offer to stand down if Mr Monti wanted to take over his party—a sign perhaps that the former prime minister senses that his candidacy risks becoming an embarrassing catastrophe. It has run into a barrage of international condemnation and even Mr Berlusconi’s old chums in the Northern League are hesitating about whether to renew their electoral alliance with the PdL.

12月8日,蒙蒂告知意大利总统乔治·纳波利塔诺辞职的打算,提前投票已不可避免。到那时,他失去了西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼领导的自由人民党(PdL) 的支持。76岁的贝卢斯科尼随后宣布他将担任该政党的总理候选人。之后,他又使事情变得疑云重重,甚至令人匪夷所思地提议如果蒙蒂想要接管他的政党的话,他将会退出——这个迹象表明前总理或许意识到他的候选人资格面临着演变成令人尴尬的灾难的危险。他已经陷入轮番轰炸的国际谴责,甚至贝卢斯科尼北方联盟的密友都在犹豫是否恢复和自由人民党组成的竞选联盟。
Mr Berlusconi launched himself into the campaign with an implicit renunciation of the actions of Mr Monti’s government, which his party has until now supported. The billionaire media mogul has since depicted the government’s policies as unnecessarily painful and imposed on a Germanophile Mr Monti by the government in Berlin. He has scorned concerns over the interest cost on Italy’s vast public debt, which Mr Monti had almost halved before Mr Berlusconi’s reappearance panicked investors. And he held out to voters the prospect that he could undo the reintroduction of an unpopular property tax and reignite growth, something he signally failed to do in the eight years between 2001 and 2011 when he held power.
Some of Mr Monti’s comments, obliquely countering Mr Berlusconi’s populist contentions, suggest he is itching to defend his government’s record. But those close to him say he is genuinely undecided about whether to run. The risks are considerable, and not just for Mr Monti.
A central problem of Italian democracy is that both its main parties are an ideological hotch-potch. On the left, the Democratic Party (PD) is the offspring of a marriage between ex-communists and former Christian Democrats. On the right, the PdL is the outcome of a merger between reconstructed neo-fascists and Mr Berlusconi’s heterogeneous following of opportunists, ex-socialists, conservatives and the odd liberal. Mr Monti has the chance to lay the foundations of an altogether more presentable conservative movement: an Italian reflection of the principles that inspire the European Peoples’ Party in the European Parliament.
The building blocks already exist: the conservative Union of Christian and Centre Democrats (UDC); a new movement led by the chairman of Ferrari, Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, which was founded specifically as a vehicle for the prime minister; and other, smaller groups. Mr Monti could steal votes from the PdL, which is in danger of breaking apart despite Mr Berlusconi’s return and from the moderate wing of the PD. Above all, says Antonio Noto of IPR Marketing, “he could lure to the polls some of the 25% of Italians who say they are not tempted by any of the existing parties”, or even by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement led by Beppe Grillo, a former comedian.
Big business and the Catholic church have already signalled their support for the prime minister. And Mr Monti could prove a good foil for the slick, showy tycoon. Mr Berlusconi has been defeated twice in five general elections. Each time, his nemesis was another quietly-spoken economics professor with impeccable European credentials: Romano Prodi.
The snag is that Mr Monti’s real adversary would not be Mr Berlusconi, but the leader of the PD, Pier Luigi Bersani, who has pointedly warned the prime minister to stay out of the fray. Without exception, the polls show the PD and its allies with a substantial lead. Under Italy’s electoral rules, whichever coalition comes first receives a bonus that guarantees it a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. But in the Senate the bonus is allocated region by region. The big risk for the governability of Italy after the election is a result that gives a coalition a majority in the chamber, but not in the Senate.
A pro-Monti coalition would find it hard to overtake the PD nationally, but could ruin its chances of dominating both houses. A hung Senate might also give Mr Berlusconi, whose party has sunk to around 15% in the polls, his most realistic chance of retaining influence. But so long as Mr Monti was ready to join forces with Mr Bersani after the election, the PdL could be pushed firmly into opposition, along with Mr Grillo’s representatives.
Other calculations are weighing on Mr Monti. If he were to stand, he would have to give up his life senator’s seat. A decision to run could mean he lost his chance to occupy the Quirinal palace as Italy’s head of state when Mr Napolitano retires next year. That is where Mr Bersani would like to see him, as a guarantor of future reforms. Above all, there is the increasingly unfathomable Berlusconi variable. If Mr Berlusconi were to pull out, or his party to implode, the temptation for Mr Monti to pounce might become irresistible.
其他政治猜测也压得蒙蒂喘不过气来。如果他继续担任总理的话,他将不得不放弃终身议员的席位。退出竞选的决定意味着他将失去明年纳波利塔诺退休后作为意大利元首进驻奎里纳莱宫的机会。而贝尔萨尼迫切期望他能作为未来改革的保证人呆在那里。毕竟,贝卢斯科尼的可变因素正变得越来越深不可测。如果贝卢斯科尼撤出大选,或其政党发生内讧,那么蒙蒂面临抓住这个机会的诱惑是不可阻挡的。 翻译:姜振南


重点单词   查看全部解释    
prime [praim]


adj. 最初的,首要的,最好的,典型的

substantial [səb'stænʃəl]


adj. 实质的,可观的,大量的,坚固的

bizarre [bi'zɑ:]


adj. 奇异的,怪诞的
n. 奇异花

exception [ik'sepʃən]


n. 除外,例外,[律]异议,反对

ruin [ruin]


v. 毁灭,毁坏,破产
n. 毁灭,崩溃,废墟

opposition [.ɔpə'ziʃən]


n. 反对,敌对,在野党

impeccable [im'pekəbl]


adj. 无过的,无错误的,无瑕疵的

vast [vɑ:st]


adj. 巨大的,广阔的
n. 浩瀚的太

majority [mə'dʒɔriti]


n. 多数,大多数,多数党,多数派

adversary ['ædvəsəri]


n. 敌手,对手