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A couple of days ago I put out a video about The Prince by Machiavelli,
几天以前我基于马基雅弗利的《王子》出版了一个录像，
and every time I make a video like that,
每次制作那种录像的时候，
I expect a particular type of comment and I'm usually never disappointed.
都期待能有一些很特别的评论，而且通常情况下也从来没有失望过。
The comment goes more or less something like this, "This is stupid, I don’t like Machiavelli…"
评论都差不多都是，“这太愚蠢了，我不喜欢马基雅弗利…”
Now… The topic of discussion might be something very complex like,
现在可能讨论一些非常复杂的话题，诸如
"Is it beneficial for a prince to learn how not to be good,"
“对于王子来说，学着如何不友好，是很有益处的吗，”
which is a really good and a relevant question,
这是个非常好的而且也相关的问题，
but what do you have to do to answer that question?
但是你要怎么来回答这个问题呢？
You have to think a lot, you have to analyze the behavior of the people in power throughout history,
你需要考虑很多，并分析历史上有权人的行为，
and along with endless other considerations you have to dedicate a lot of time and mental energy to it.
以及其他一些需要花费大量时间和精力的无尽的考虑。
Now… Why would our brains want to waste energy like that?
为什么我们要在那种事情上浪费精力呢？
So what do we do instead? We ask a simpler question…
所以可以用什么替代呢？问一个更简单的问题…
And the question is, "Do I like Machiavelli or not?"
问题就是，“我是否喜欢马基雅弗利？”
And if the answer to that is, "No, I don’t like Machiavelli,"
如果答案是，“我不喜欢他，”
then we'll take that answer and turn it into,
然后我们会把那个答案转变成，
"Well, it turns out that it's not beneficial for a prince to learn how not to be good."
“对于王子来说学着变坏是没有益处的。”
But notice how the two questions literally have nothing to do with each other.
但是请注意这两个问题字面上没有任何关联。
Whether you like Machiavelli or not has absolutely nothing to do with the original topic of discussion.
是否喜欢马基雅弗利，和最初的讨论话题没有任何关联。
And we tend to do this with all kinds of complex questions we have to answer in life.
对于生活中各种各样的复杂问题，我们都倾向于那么做。
So the first big idea is to realize our tendency to replace complex questions with easier, irrelevant questions
所以第一点就是意识到我们倾向于用简单且不相关的问题来替换复杂的问题，
and thereby reduce our ridiculous biases caused by cognitive ease.
从而减少由于认知易用性而引起的荒唐偏见。
A few days ago, I was talking to my friend who's really into coconut oil.
几天以前和一个朋友聊天，他很喜欢椰子油。
And he started to tell me how great it is, and how it's the best thing in the world,
就告诉我椰子油多么多么好，是世界上最好的东西，
and I don't know much about coconut oil so I said, "That's pretty cool. Why is it so good?"
我不太了解椰子油，所以我就说，“太酷了，它为什么那么好呢？”
And he just had absolutely no idea. So I said, "Okay, cool… Why don't we just research it?"
他完全解释不了。我就说，“好吧…为什么不搜一下呢？”
So I get on my computer and type in something like, "Is coconut oil good for you?"
我就在电脑上输入，“椰子油对你有好处吗？”
And I'm not even done typing when he yells,
我还没有输完，他就开始大叫，
"Look! I found a study that says it's good for you." So I thought,
“瞧，这个研究说椰子油是有好处的。”我就想，
"Hmm… That was pretty fast…"
“嗯…这也太快了吧…”
And I go over there and I take a look at the article
我过去看了一下那篇文章，
and it was citing this study that literally had nothing to do with
它引用的这个研究，从字面上看
whether coconut oil is good for you or not.
和椰子油是否对你有好处一点关系都没有。
But I also clicked on his search tab and guess what he had searched for?
但是我点了他的搜索标签想看看他是搜的什么？
He had searched for, "Why coconut oil is good for you."
他搜的是，“为什么椰子油对你有好处。”
And that is what we tend to do with everything in our life.
这就是我们在生活中的做事倾向。
If you care about searching for truth and don't want to live in some fantasy world,
如果你专注于探索真理，不想生活在虚幻的世界里，
instead of typing in, "Why coconut oil is good for you," type in "Is coconut oil good for you?"
就输入“椰子油对你有好处吗？”，而不是输入“椰子油为什么对你有好处。”
If you're Mormon and you care about searching for truth,
如果你是摩门教徒，并很在意寻求真理，
stop typing in, "Why Joseph Smith is the best thing that happened to humanity."
就不要输入，“为什么约瑟夫·史密斯的思想是人类的精华。”
Instead, type in "I would like to learn more about Joseph Smith."
而是输入“我希望更多的了解约瑟夫·史密斯。”
And I guarantee you those two will give you very different results.
我保证这两种问法会给出截然不同的答案。
So remember, if searching for truth is what you care about,
所以请记住，如果你所在乎的是寻找真理，
realize how susceptible we are to confirmation bias
就要意识到我们是多么容易受到确认偏误的影响。
and don't answer the question before you've even started your research.
而且不要在调查之前就做出回答。
Now a lot of people watching this are probably thinking, "Heh, stupid Mormons… Yeah,
看这个视频的很多人可能会想，“多么愚蠢的摩门教徒…
let's all make fun of how easily they’ll fall for bullshit and how stupid they are,"
我们应该嘲笑他们有多么容易相信鬼话，多么的愚蠢，”
but chances are that you yourself might be catholic,
但是你可能是天主教徒，
or whatever else but let's just pick the Catholics.
或者是其他的教派，就选天主教徒吧。
For those of us who aren't catholic, your beliefs are just as childish and ridiculous.
对于不是天主教徒的人来说，你的信仰就很幼稚和荒唐。
For those of us who aren't catholic, the idea of giving our time and money
对于不是天主教徒的人来说，把我们的时间和金钱给那些
to some guy wearing a dress and a ridiculous hat because that somehow makes him important is just as crazy.
因为穿着裙子、戴着荒唐的帽子而显得很重要的人是很疯狂的。
So how can we look at something and think that it's so ridiculous,
所以我们要怎样来看待某件事并且断定它很荒唐呢，
but not be able to see it if it's our own? It's called the endowment effect.
那么轮到我们自己的时候，我们为什么会认为某件事很荒唐却又不自知呢？这就是所谓的禀赋效应。
We value things highly just because they're ours.
我们觉得某物有价值仅仅是因为那是我们自己的东西。
If you have a car that you're trying to sell,
如果你想卖掉自己的车，
you'll think that it should cost a lot more than if you weren't the owner and you were actually trying to buy it yourself.
你会认为它的价值比你作为买主去买这辆车高的多。
So the third big idea is to become aware of our endowment bias.
所以第三点就是意识到我们的禀赋偏见。
So ask yourself with everything in life including religion,
所以思考一下你的生活中包括宗教在内的一切事情，
do you really think your religion is the best because you actually searched for truth
你真的觉得你的宗教是最好的，
without confirmation bias or all the other biases and came to that conclusion,
是因为你在没有任何偏见的前提下探寻真理并得出了这个结论，
or is it because it's just your religion?
还是仅仅因为它就是你的宗教信仰？
Do you really think that Nicaragua is the best country in the world because it really is,
你认为尼加拉瓜是世界上最好的地方是因为它真的是最好的，
or could it possibly be due to the fact that you just happened to be born there?
还是由于你碰巧出生在那里所以才那么认为的？
So the 3 big ideas are…
所以三种想法…
1. Cognitive ease. We have to stop replacing complex questions with easier ones
1.认知易用性。如果想要少一点的偏见，我们就不要
that are irrelevant if we want to be less biased.
用简单且不相关的问题来代替复杂的问题。
2. Confirmation bias. We have to stop starting out with an answer before we've even asked the question.
确认偏误。在提问问题之前，不要先给出答案。
3. And the endowment effect. We have to stop thinking that something is great just because it's ours.
禀赋效应。我们不能因为某件东西是我们自己的，就觉得它是好的。
Maybe Nicaragua really is the best country in the world and you just happened to be born there,
可能尼加拉瓜真的世界上最好的国家，而你又恰巧出生在那里，
or maybe it's a little more likely that you're just biased because of the endowment effect.
也有一点点可能是你因为禀赋效应而产生的偏见。
