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I'm Jacob Clifford. And I'm Adriene Hill.
我是雅各布·克利福德。我是埃德因·希尔。
And today, finally, Crash Course, is gonna live up to its name.
今天的速成课终于将名副其实了。
We're gonna talk about crashes, economic crashes.
我们将要讲崩溃，经济崩溃。
Crash Course, we've been waiting for this!
这堂速成课，我们期待已久！
In Germany in 1923, people were doing strange things
1923年，德国人做了很多奇怪的事，
like using money to wallpaper their houses and burning money for heat.
比如用钱贴壁纸、烧钱取暖。
What was going on? Had they all gone crazy?
出了什么事？他们都疯了吗？
Nope! In the early 1920's, Germany was in the grip of something called hyperinflation.
不是！20世纪20年代初，德国陷入了恶性通货膨胀的泥潭。
In order to pay massive reparations to the Allies after World War I,
为了在第一次世界大战后向协约国支付巨额赔款，
Germany printed a lot of their currency, the Mark.
德国印制了大量的货币马克。
One result of all this additional money was higher and higher prices.
所有这些额外货币导致物价越来越高。
By November 1923, it took a trillion Marks to buy one U.S. dollar.
到了1923年11月，一万亿马克才兑换一美元。
There were one thousand billion Mark notes in circulation.
有面值一万亿的马克纸币在流通。
The Mark was effectively meaningless.
马克变得毫无意义。
A similar situation developed in Zimbabwe a few years ago.
津巴布韦几年前也出现了类似情形。
Starting in 2007, inflation grew rapidly, like really really rapidly.
从2007年开始，津巴布韦的通货膨胀迅速增长，通胀速度非常非常得快。
By September 2008, the International Monetary Fund estimated the annual inflation rate at 489 billion percent.
截至2008年9月，国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计，它的年通货膨胀率为百分之4890亿。
In practical terms, the Zimbabwean dollar lost 99.9% of its value between 2007 and 2008.
实际上，从2007年到2008年，津巴布韦元贬值了99.9%。
It's hard to even imagine what that looks like.
很难想象这是什么情形。
Prices nearly doubled every 24 hours and businesses revised prices several times a day.
物价几乎每天上涨一倍，企业一天要几次调整价格。
In June 2008, The Economic Times reported,
2008年6月，《经济时报》报道，
"A loaf of bread now cost what 12 new cards did a decade ago."
“现在的一条面包花了十年前的12张新卡。
The government issued currency in huge denominations to keep up with rising prices.
为了跟上物价的上涨，政府发行了大量货币。
The million dollar bill, the billion dollar bill, and finally in 2009,
他们印发了面值一百万、十亿的津巴布韦元钞票，并最终在2009年，
the hundred trillion dollar bill, the largest denomination of currency ever issued.
印发了面值100万亿的钞票，成了有史以来发行面额最大的货币。
The good news was that everyone was a billionaire.
好消息是每个人都是亿万富翁。
But the bad news was that those dollars were virtually worthless.
但坏消息是，这些津巴布韦元实际毫无价值。
One definition of hyperinflation is
恶性通胀的一个定义是
when a country experiences a monthly inflation rate of over 50% or around 13,000% annual inflation.
一个国家的月通货膨胀率超过50%，或者年通货膨胀率大约是13000%。
But believe it or not, Zimbabwe's recent inflation isn't unique,
不管你信不信，津巴布韦近期的通货膨胀都不是唯一的，
and it's not the worst inflation in history.
也不是历史上最严重的通货膨胀。
In fact the worst was in Hungary in 1946.
事实上，最糟糕的通货膨胀发生在1946年的匈牙利。
Between July 1945 and August 1946,
1945年7月至1946年8月，
the price level in Hungary rose by a factor of three times ten to the twenty-fifth.
匈牙利的物价水平增长了3*10^25倍。
And yes, any time you have to express your inflation rate using scientific notation, that's a bad thing.
是的，任何时候用科学符号来表达通货膨胀率都是件坏事。
Besides the obvious confusion over what prices to charge for things, why is hyperinflation so bad?
恶性通货膨胀除了导致明显的物价混乱之外，为什么如此严重呢？
Well inflation, and especially hyperinflation, erodes wealth.
通货膨胀，特别是恶性通货膨胀，会侵蚀财富。
In Zimbabwe, people who had worked their whole lives and saved up for retirement,
在津巴布韦，那些一生工作并为退休而攒钱的人
saw their savings just wiped out.
会看到他们的积蓄化为乌有了。
Extreme inflation also forces people to spend as quickly as possible rather than save or lend,
极端通货膨胀也迫使人们尽可能快地消费，而不是储蓄或借贷，
so there is no money available to fund new businesses.
因此，新企业没有可用资金。
And all that uncertainty limits foreign investment and trade.
而且所有这些不确定性限制了外国投资和贸易。
So, hyperinflation is bad. But how does it happen?
所以，恶性通货膨胀很糟糕。但它是怎么发生的呢？
Let's go to the Thought Bubble.
我们去看“Thought Bubble”。
So, we're simplifying this stuff a lot.
我们把这些东西简化了很多。
But the root of the problem in both Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe
但德国魏玛和津巴布韦的问题根源在于
was that the government was paying their bills by printing new money.
政府通过印刷新钞票来支付他们的账单。
An increase in the money supply can have two effects.
货币供应量的增加会产生两个影响。
It can increase output or increase prices or some combination of the two.
它可以增加产量或者提高物价，或者两者兼而有之。
Inflation starts when output is pushed to capacity and can't rise much further,
当产量被逼到极限，并且不能再进一步提升时，通胀就开始了，
but policy makers continue to increase the money supply.
但政策制定者仍在继续增加货币供应。
In theory, once output is maximized,
理论上，一旦产出最大化，
the more money you print, the more inflation you'll get. Simple, right?
钱印的越多，通货膨胀就越严重。很简单，对吧？
Well, that doesn't fully explain why Germany's or Zimbabwe's inflation rose exponentially.
不过，这并不能完全解释为什么德国或津巴布韦的通货膨胀率呈指数增长。
Was the government really printing that much money? Not exactly.
政府真的印了那么多钱吗？不完全是。
After a couple years of doubling prices,
经过几年的物价翻番，
people started to expect high inflation, and that changed their behavior.
人们开始期待高通胀，这改变了他们的行为。
Say you're planning to buy a new refrigerator, and you expect prices to rise quickly.
假设你打算买一台新冰箱，并预计物价会快速上涨。
You buy it as soon as possible before the price has had a chance to change.
那么你要在物价有机会变化前尽快购买。
But with everyone following that logic, dollars start to circulate faster and faster and faster.
但由于每个人都遵循这一逻辑，钱开始流通得越来越快。
Economists called the number of times a dollar is spent per year the velocity of money.
经济学家把货币的年周转次数叫做货币流通速度。
When people spend their money as quickly as they get it,
当人们一得到钱就花时，
that increases velocity, which pushes inflation up even faster.
会加快流通速度，更快地推高通胀。
You get a vicious cycle of higher prices,
这样就形成了一个更高物价的恶性循环，
which lead to expectations of higher prices, which lead to higher prices.
更高的物价引起高价预期，从而导致物价上涨。
The hyperinflation in Germany ended when the government replaced the worthless Mark with a new currency.
当政府用一种新货币取代无价值的马克时，德国的恶性通货膨胀结束了。
Zimbabwe ended its hyperinflation by abandoning its currency altogether.
津巴布韦通过完全放弃自己的货币，结束了它的恶性通货膨胀。
Now, its citizens use U.S. dollars or currencies from neighboring countries.
现在，它的公民使用美元或来自邻国的货币。
The good news is that prices have since stabilized and real GDP has begun to increase.
好消息是，它的物价已经稳定了，实际GDP已经开始增长。
Thanks Thought Bubble.
感谢“Thought Bubble”。
So, if you ever control a national economy, try to avoid hyperinflation.
因此，如果你要永远控制一个国家的经济，就尽量避免恶性通货膨胀吧。
You might also want to stay away from depressions.
你也可能想要远离萧条。
A depression is kind of a hard thing to define,
萧条很难定义，
but basically it's when real GDP falls and keeps falling for a long period of time.
但基本上是指实际GDP下跌并长时间持续下降的一段时期。
This has all sorts of terrible effects like high unemployment and falling prices.
它有各种可怕的影响，比如高失业率和物价下跌。
Before the 1930's, economists use the term depression to describe sustained falls in GDP.
在20世纪30年代之前，经济学家使用“depression”这个词来描述GDP持续下降。
But after The Great Depression,
但是在大萧条之后，
economists started using the word recession for downturns to avoid association with the 1930's.
经济学家们开始使用“recession”这个词来描述经济衰退，以避免与20世纪30年代的大萧条联系在一起。
I guess calling it a depression was just too depressing.
我猜叫它大萧条实在是太让人沮丧了。
When the stock Market crashed in 1929, it didn't just cause problems for stock brokers.
当股市在1929年崩盘时，它不仅给股票经纪人带来了麻烦。
Everyone freaked out and stopped spending, and the economy ground to a halt.
所有人都吓坏了并停止了消费，经济陷入停滞。
Of course, that's not the only reason for The Great Depression.
当然，这不是大萧条的唯一原因。
Actually, there's still a lot of debate about the causes.
事实上，关于大萧条的起因还有很多争论。
Anyway, when economies fall into deep recessions,
无论如何，当经济陷入严重衰退时，
there are more workers than there are jobs and more output than consumers want to buy.
失业工人增多，消费者的需求低于产出，
So both income and prices fall.
所以收入和物价都下降了。
Central banks can try to use Expansionary Monetary Policy to speed up the economy.
中央银行尝试使用扩张性货币政策来加速经济发展。
So for example, in the U.S. The Federal Reserve can lower interest rates.
例如，在美国，美联储可以降低利率。
This encourages consumers and businesses to take out loans,
这一政策鼓励用户和企业贷款，
and hopefully, get the economy going again.
希望使经济再次复苏。
But if people start changing their expectations and anticipate further price declines,
但是，如果人们开始改变他们的预期，期望物价进一步下跌的话，
they'll change their behavior in ways that work against the central bank.
他们将改变自己的行为，这违背了中央银行的做法。
Like, if you're planning to buy a refrigerator and you expect prices to fall,
比如，如果你打算买一台冰箱并预计物价会下跌，
you're gonna wait to get a lower price.
那么你就会等待物价更低时购买。
But, if everyone follows that same logic, then spending declines and so does the velocity of money.
但如果每个人都遵循同样的逻辑，那么支出就会下降，货币流通速度也会下降。
That leads to further price declines and a vicious cycle of falling prices,
这将引起物价进一步下跌以及一个物价下跌的恶性循环，
which leads to expectations of lower prices, which actually leads to lower prices.
从而导致物价下降的预期，实际导致了物价下降。
It also leads to layoffs at the refrigerator factory and so on and so on and so on.
它还导致了冰箱工厂裁员等等。
This is called a liquidity trap
这被称为流动性陷阱，
and some economists believe it's a worsening factor in economic downturns including The Great Depression.
一些经济学家认为，它是经济衰退包括大萧条的一个恶化因素。
Speaking of The Great Depression, after the initial crash of 1929,
谈到大萧条，在1929年最初的经济崩溃之后，
The Federal Reserve dropped interest rates to zero, output and prices fell,
美联储将利率降至零，产出和物价都下降了，
and regular people started to expect further price declines.
普通人开始期望物价进一步下跌。
Unemployment rose to 25%, and the average family income dropped by around 40%.
失业率上升到25%，家庭平均收入下降了40%左右。
This is...not great. Once interest rates hit zero,
这……不是很好。一旦利率降至零，
and prices were still falling, the central bank was in a bind.
物价持续下跌，央行陷入了困境。
Continuing deflation meant that borrowing money was a bad deal, even with no interest.
持续的通货紧缩意味着即使没有利息，借钱也是个糟糕的交易。
The money you pay back in the future would have more buying power than the money you originally borrowed.
你将来偿还的钱会比你原来借的钱更有购买力。
This discouraged people from buying homes or cars
这使得人们不愿购买房屋或汽车，
and discouraged businesses from borrowing to expand capacity.
并阻止企业举债扩大产能。
In fact, getting out of The Depression took nearly a decade.
事实上，我们走出大萧条花了近十年的时间。
And it wasn't really monetary policy that put an end to it.
而且并不是真正的货币政策结束了大萧条。
It was the massive government spending of World War II.
而是第二次世界大战的大规模政府开支结束了它。
Okay, you don't want hyperinflation. You don't want depressions.
好吧，你不想要恶性通货膨胀，不想要大萧条。
You also don't want stagflation.
那么你也不想要滞胀了。
That's when output slows down or stops or stagnates at the same time that prices rise.
滞涨是指产出放缓或停滞的同时物价上涨。
So, stagnant economy plus inflation equals stagflation.
所以，停滞的经济加上通胀等于滞胀。
Get it? It's a portmanteau.
明白了吗？它有多种性质。
The U.S. experienced stagflation starting in the 1970's,
从20世纪70年代开始，美国开始了滞胀，
after a series of supply shocks including a rise in oil prices and, believe it or not,
信不信由你，此前发生了一系列的供给冲击包括油价上涨、
a die-off of Peruvian anchovies, which were important for animal feed and fertilizers.
以及对动物饲料和化肥很重要的秘鲁凤尾鱼的死亡。
This combination of events meant the economy couldn't produce as much.
这些事件加起来意味着经济产出下降。
The Fed tried to address this by boosting the money supply and cutting interest rates,
美联储试图通过增加货币供应量和降低利率来解决这一问题，
but output couldn't rise much because of low productivity and the oil shortage.
但由于生产力低下和石油短缺，产量增长并不大。
So, all that extra money just triggered inflation.
所以，所有这些额外的钱只会引发通货膨胀。
It got even worse when people began to adjust their inflation expectations.
当人们开始调整他们的通胀预期时，情况变得更糟。
Businesses started to expect costs to rise even further, so they laid off workers,
企业开始预计成本会进一步上升，所以他们解雇了工人，
and that put the economy back into a recession.
这使得经济重新陷入衰退。
When The Fed boosted the money supply again, that raised inflation expectations even more.
当美联储再次提振货币供应时，进一步提高了通胀预期。
This ended in the early 80's when a new Federal Reserve Chairman took over.
此次衰退在80年代初，一位新的联邦储备委员会主席接任时才结束。
His name was Paul Volcker. He actually cut the money supply and raised interest rates dramatically.
他的名字叫保罗·沃尔克。实际上，他削减了货币供给，并大幅提高了利率。
Output plummeted, and unemployment reached ten percent,
这一举措导致产出大幅下降，失业率达到10%，
but prices stopped rising and so did inflation expectations.
但物价与通胀预期停止上升。
The economy gradually recovered, and Paul Volcker got the credit for ending stagflation.
经济逐渐复苏，保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)因结束滞胀而被称赞。
So hyperinflation, deflation, depression, stagflation,
所以，恶性通货膨胀、通货紧缩、萧条、滞胀，
they're all extreme economic circumstances,
都是极端的经济情况，
but these extremes show us why it's so important to measure and understand the overall economy.
但这些极端情况向我们展示了衡量与理解整体经济的重要性。
In some cases, government action or inaction made things worse.
在某些案例中，政府的行动或不作为让事情变得更糟。
And in other cases, the government helped the economy get back on its feet.
在其他案例中，政府帮助经济重新站稳脚跟。
It's important to keep in mind that the economy is made up of collective decisions of individuals.
重要的是要记住，经济是由个人的群体决策组成的。
It's people like us, our expectations matter.
像我们这样的人，期望也很重要。
If enough people fear a recession,
如果担心经济衰退的人足够多，
they're gonna decrease their spending, and that's gonna cause a recession.
他们减少开支久会导致经济衰退。
Next week, we're gonna look at different economic schools of thought.
下周，我们将着眼于不同的经济学派。
But regardless of philosophy, policies designed to steer the economy
但不管理念如何，旨在引导经济的政策
need to address expectations and focus on creating confidence.
都需要满足期望，专注于建立自信。
Thanks for watching. We'll see you next week.
感谢您的收看，我们下期见。
Thanks for watching Crash Course Economics.
感谢您收看经济速成班。
It's made with the help of all these awesome people.
它是由这些了不起的人帮助制作的。
You can help keep Crash Course free, for everyone, forever by supporting it at Patreon.
你可以帮助支持Patreon的速成课程，让它们向所有人永远免费开放，
Patreon is a voluntary subscription service where you can support the show with a monthly contribution.
Patreon是自愿订阅服务，你可以每月为它提供支持。
We'd also like to thank our High Chancellor of Learning, Dr. Brett Henderson
我们还要感谢我们的学习部校长布雷特·亨德森博士，
and our Headmaster of Learning, Linea Boyev.
以及学习主管Linea Boyev。
Also, our Crash Course Vice Principals, Cathy and Tim Phillip.
还有我们的速成班副校长，凯茜和蒂姆·菲利普。
Thanks for watching! DFTBA.
感谢您的收看，别忘了做个了不起的人。
