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How are we doing? No, no, no, by that, I meant, how are we, homo sapiens "we" ... doing as a species?
我们过得怎么样？不不不，那个，我的意思是说，我们整个智人人种，最近过的怎么样？
Now the typical way to answer that question is this.
回到这个问题的传统方式是这样的。
You choose some measure of human physical well-being:
你选择一些人体健康指标：
average longevity, average calories per day, average income, overall population, that sort of thing,
平均寿命，每天摄入的平均卡路里，平均收入，总人口，诸如此类的，
and draw a graph of its value over time.
然后制作一张这些指标随时间变化的图表。
In almost every case, you get the same result.
几乎在所有情况下，你都能得到同样的结果。
The line skitters along at a low level for millennia, then rockets up exponentially in the 19th and 20th century.
几千年来，这条线一直处于较低的水平，然后在19和20世纪出现指数级上升。
Or choose a measure of consumption: consumption of energy, consumption of fresh water,
或者选择一个消耗指数：能源的消耗，淡水的消耗，
consumption of the world's photosynthesis, and draw a graph of its value over time.
全世界光合作用的消耗，然后制作一张这些指标随时间变化的图表。
In the same way, the line skitters along at a low level for millennia,
同样地，这条线也在几千年来一直处于较低的水平，
then rockets up exponentially in the 19th and 20th century.
然后在19和20世纪出现指数级上升。
Biologists have a word for this: outbreak.
生物学家对此有一个专有名词：物种大爆发。
An outbreak is when a population or species exceeds the bounds of natural selection.
物种大爆发是指一个种群或者物种超出了自然选择的界限。
Natural selection ordinarily keeps populations and species within roughly defined limits.
自然选择通常使种群和物种保持在大致限定的范围内。
Pests, parasites, lack of resources prevent them from expanding too much.
害虫、寄生虫、资源匮乏令他们不能过度扩张。
But every now and then, a species escapes its bounds.
但有时，物种会跳出这一界限。
Crown-of-thorns starfish in the Indian Ocean, zebra mussels in the Great Lakes, spruce budworm here in Canada.
比如印度洋的棘冠海星，五大湖的斑马纹贻贝，加拿大的云杉蚜虫。
Populations explode, a hundredfold, a thousandfold, a millionfold.
种群数量百倍、千倍、千百万倍的爆炸式增长。
So here's a fundamental lesson from biology: outbreaks in nature don't end well.
这里有一个生物学的基础经验：自然界的物种大爆发不会有好结果。
Put a couple of protozoa into a petri dish full of nutrient goo.
将一些原生动物放入充满营养物质的培养皿中。
In their natural habitat, soil or water, their environment constrains them.
在它们的自然栖息地、土壤或水中，它们的环境限制了它们。
In the petri dish, they have an ocean of breakfast and no natural enemies.
而在培养皿中，它们有无穷无尽的早餐，没有天敌。
They eat and reproduce, eat and reproduce, until bang, they hit the edge of the petri dish,
它们就是吃然后繁殖，吃然后繁殖，直到砰的一声，它们撞到了培养皿的边缘，
at which point they either drown in their own waste, starve from lack of resources, or both.
此时，它们要么被自己的排泄物淹没，要么因资源匮乏而饿死，要么两者兼而有之。
The outbreak ends, always, badly.
这种物种大爆发的结局，通常是很糟糕的。
Now, from the viewpoint of biology, you and I are not fundamentally different than the protozoa in the petri dish. We're not special.
从生物学的角度来看，你和我，与培养皿中原生生物的没有本质上的区别。我们并不特殊。
All the things that we, in our vanity, think make us different -- art, science, technology, and so forth, they don't matter.
所有那些令我们自信我们与众不同的--艺术，科学，科技等等，并没有什么用。
We're an outbreak species, we're going to hit the edge of the petri dish, simple as that.
我们是一个爆发了的物种，我们会撞到培养皿的边缘，就这么简单。
Well, the obvious question: Is this actually true?
那显而易见的问题是：真的会如此吗？
Are we in fact doomed to hit the edge of the petri dish?
我们真的会撞到培养皿的边缘吗？
I'd like to set aside this question for a moment and ask you guys another one.
我想先放一放这个问题，问你们另外一个问题。
If we are going to escape biology, how are we going to do it?
如果我们真的逃脱了生物学的限制，我们该如何应对？
In the year 2050, there will be almost 10 billion people in the world,
在2050年，世界上会有接近100亿人，
and all of those people will want the things that you and I want: nice cars, nice clothes, nice homes, the odd chunk of Toblerone.
而所有人会想要你和我想要的东西：漂亮的车，漂亮的衣服，漂亮的房子，大块怪异的三角巧克力。
I mean, think of it: Toblerone for 10 billion people.
我是说，想想吧：100亿人份的三角巧克力。
How are we going to do this?
我们怎么能做到？
How are we going to feed everybody, get water to everybody, provide power to everybody, avoid the worst impacts of climate change?
我们将如何养活每个人，为每个人提供水，为每个人提供电力，避免气候变化的最坏影响？
I'm a science journalist, and I've been asking these questions to researchers for years,
我是一个科学记者，这些问题我向研究人员请教了很多年，
and in my experience, their answers fall into two broad categories, which I call "wizards" and "prophets."
根据我的经验，他们的答案分为两类，我称之为“巫师”和“先知”。
Wizards, techno-whizzes, believe that science and technology, properly applied, will let us produce our way out of our dilemmas.
巫师，科学专家，认为科学和科技恰当的运用，会让我们走出困境。
"Be smart, make more," they say. "That way, everyone can win."
他们说：“利用智慧，提高生产，所有人都能受益。”
Prophets believe close to the opposite.
先知的观点则恰恰相反。
They see the world as governed by fundamental ecological processes with limits that we transgress to our peril.
他们认为世界受基本生态过程的控制，其控制程度很有限，我们越界则会招致危险。
"Use less, conserve," they say. "Otherwise, everybody's going to lose."
他们说：“减少使用，有所保留，否则大家都会有所损失。”
Wizards and prophets have been butting their heads together for decades,
巫师和先知们争执数十年不休，
but they both believe that technology is key to a successful future.
但是他们都认为科技是一个成功的未来的关键。
The trouble is, they envision different types of technology and different types of futures.
问题是，他们设想不同类型的技术和不同类型的未来。
Wizards envision a world of glittering, hyperefficient megacities surrounded by vast tracts of untouched nature,
巫师设想了一个光彩夺目、高效的耸立着大量巨大城市的世界，这些巨大城市被大量尚未开采的土地环绕，
economies that have transitioned from atoms to bits, dematerialized capitalist societies that no longer depend on exploiting nature.
非物质化的资本主义社会实现了经济的数字化，不自依赖开采自然资源。
Energy, to wizards, comes from compact nuclear plants;
巫师认为能源来自小型核电站；
food from low-footprint farms with ultraproductive, genetically modified crops tended by robots;
食物来自低成本超高产的农场，由机器人培育的转基因作物；
water from high-throughput desalination plants, which means we no longer exploit rivers and aquifers.
水来自高通量海水淡化厂，这意味着我们不再开采河流和地下水。
Wizards envision all 10 billion of us packed into ultradense but walkable megacities,
巫师设想我们100亿人都挤在超高密度但还能步行的巨型城市里，
an urbanized world of maximum human aspiration and maximum human liberty.
一个充满了最大化的人类愿景和最大化的人类自由的城市化世界。
Now, prophets object to every bit of this. You can't dematerialize food and water, they point out.
而先知们反对这一切。他们指出，食物和水不能非物质化。
They say, you can't eat bits, and industrial agriculture has already given us massive soil erosion,
他们认为，你不能吃二进制数字，农业工业化已经给我们造成了大规模的水土流失，
huge coastal dead zones and ruined soil microbiomes.
巨大的沿海死亡区和被破坏的土壤微生物群落。
And you wizards, you want more of this? And those giant desalination plants?
而你们这些巫师，还想要这个情况更严重吗？还有那些巨大的海水淡化工厂？
You know they generate equally giant piles of toxic salt that are basically impossible to dispose of.
它们会产生同样巨大量的有毒盐，这基本上是无法处理的。
And those megacities you like? Can you name me an actually existing megacity that really exists in the world today,
而你们说的那些巨大城市呢？你能说出一个真正存在于当今世界的巨大城市吗，
except for possibly Tokyo, that isn't a cesspool of corruption and inequality?
除了东京，那里简直就是个充满腐败和不平等的粪坑。
Instead, prophets pray for a world of smaller, interconnected communities, closer to the earth,
相反，先知们祈祷有一个更小的、相互联系的群体，更接近地面，
a more agrarian world of maximum human connection and reduced corporate control.
具有最大化的人际关系网络，并降低企业控制。
More people live in the countryside in this vision,
在这一愿景下，更多的人生活在农村，
with power provided by neighborhood-scale solar and wind installations that disappear into the background.
由附近社区的太阳能和风能设施提供电力。
Prophets don't generate water from giant desalination plants.
先知们不会利用大型的海水淡化工厂中制造水。
They capture it from rainfall, and they reuse and recycle it endlessly.
他们是从降雨中获取，并不断地重复利用和回收。
And the food comes from small-scale networks of farms that focus on trees and tubers
食物则来自小型农场网络，这些农场专注于树木和块茎，
rather than less productive cereals like wheat and rice.
而不是像小麦和大米这样产量较低的谷物。
Above all, though, prophets envision people changing their habits.
然而，最重要的是，先知设想人们要改变他们的习惯。
They don't drive to work, they take their renewable-powered train.
他们不用开车上班，而是乘坐可再生能源列车。
They don't take 30-minute hot showers every morning.
他们不会每天早上洗30分钟的热水澡。
They eat, you know, like Michael Pollan says, real food, mostly plants, not too much.
他们吃的是就像迈克尔·波伦所说的真正的食物，大部分是植物，不是太多。
Above all, prophets say submitting to nature's restraints leads to a freer, more democratic, healthier way of life.
最重要的是，先知们认为，顺从大自然的约束会带来更自由、更民主、更健康的生活方式。
Now, wizards regard all this as hooey.
而巫师们认为这一切都是胡闹。
They see it as a recipe for narrowness, regression, and global poverty.
他们将其视为一种狭隘、倒退和致使全球贫困的做法。
Prophet-style agriculture, they say, only extends the human footprint and shunts more people into low-wage agricultural labor.
他们认为，先知式的农业只会扩大人类的活动范围，把更多的人转移到低回报的农业劳动中。
Those neighborhood-run solar facilities, they sound great,
那些由社区统一运行的太阳能设施，听起来很棒，
but they depend on a technology that doesn't exist yet. They're a fantasy.
但是它们依赖的技术还不存在。完全是白日做梦。
And recycling water? It's a brake on growth and development.
至于循环使用水？这会阻碍增长和发展。
Above all, though, wizards object to the prophets' emphasis on wide-scale social engineering, which they see as deeply anti-democratic.
而最重要的是，巫师们反对先知们强调的大规模社会工程，他们认为这是严重反民主的。
If the history of the last two centuries was one of unbridled growth,
如果说过去两个世纪的历史是不受约束的增长的话，
the history of the coming century may well be the choice we make as a species between these two paths.
那么下一个世纪的历史很可能是我们作为一个物种在这两条道路之间作出的选择。
These are the arguments that will be resolved, in one way or another, by our children's generation,
这些争论将以这样或那样的方式由我们的子孙后代来解决，
the generation that will come into the world of 10 billion.
这一代人将来到这个拥有100亿人口的世界。
Now, but wait, by this point, biologists should be rolling their eyes so loud you can barely hear me speak.
不过稍等一下，这个时候生物学家们翻白眼的声音应该大到你几乎听不到我说话了。
They should be saying, all of this, wizards, prophets, it's a pipe dream.
他们应该说，所有这些，巫师，先知，都是白日梦。
It doesn't matter which illusory path you think you're taking.
你认为自己走上的是哪条虚幻的道路，这并不重要。
Outbreaks in nature don't end well.
自然界的物种爆发不会有好的结局。
I mean, you think the protozoa see the edge of the petri dish approaching and say, "Hey guys, time to change society"?
我的意思是，你认为原生动物看到培养皿的边缘时候会说，“嘿，伙计们，是时候改变社会了”吗？
No. They just let her rip.
不会。它们只会任由其发展下去。
That's what life does, and we're part of life. We'll do the same thing. Deal with it.
这就是生活，我们是生活的一部分。我们会做同样的事情。所有赶紧解决啊。
Well, if you're a follower of Darwin, you have to take this into consideration.
如果你是达尔文的信徒，你必须考虑到这一点。
I mean, the basic counterargument boils down to: "We're special." How lame is that?
我的意思是，最基本的反驳可以归结为：“我们不一样。”那有多差劲？
I mean, we can accumulate and share knowledge and use it to guide our future.
我们可以积累和分享知识，并利用它来指导我们的未来。
Well, are we actually doing this?
我们真的在这么做吗？
Is there any evidence that we're actually using our accumulated, shared knowledge to guarantee our long-term prosperity?
有没有证据表明，我们实际上是在利用我们积累的、共享的知识来保证我们的长期繁荣？
It's pretty easy to say no.
显而易见，不是。
If you're a wizard, and you believe that hyperproductive, genetically engineered crops are key to feeding everyone in tomorrow's world,
如果你是一个巫师，而且你相信高产、转基因作物是养活未来世界所有人的关键，
you have to worry that 20 years of scientists demonstrating that they are safe to consume
那你必须担心，因为20年来证明它们可以安全食用的科学家，
has failed to convince the public to embrace this technology.
一直未能说服公众接受这项技术。
If you're a prophet and you believe that key to solving today's growing shortage of fresh water is to stop wasting it,
如果你是一个先知，你相信解决今天日益短缺的淡水的关键是停止浪费，
you have to worry that cities around the world, in rich places as well as poor,
那你必须担心，世界各地的城市，无论在富裕的地方还是贫穷的地方，
routinely lose a quarter or more of their water to leaky and contaminated pipes.
经常会因为漏水或管道污染，损失四分之一或更多的水。
I mean, Cape Town, just a little while ago, almost ran out of water.
开普敦，就在不久前，几乎断水了。
Cape Town loses a third of its water to leaky pipes.
开普敦三分之一的水因管道漏水而流失。
This problem has been getting worse for decades, and remarkably little has been done about it.
几十年来，这一问题一直在恶化，而人们对此却几乎毫无作为。
If you're a wizard, and you think that clean, abundant, carbon-free nuclear power is key to fighting climate change,
如果你是个巫师，你认为清洁、丰富、无碳的核能是应对气候变化的关键，
then you have to worry that the public willingness to build nukes is going down.
那你不得不担心公众建造核发电站的意愿正在下降。
If you're a prophet, and you think that the solution to the same problem is these neighborhood-run solar facilities shuttling power back and forth,
如果你是一个先知，你认为同样的问题的解决方案是那些社区里运行的太阳能设施来回输送电力，
you have to worry that no nation anywhere in the world has devoted anything like the resources necessary
那你必须担心，世界上没有任何一个国家投入了像这样的必要资源
to develop this technology and deploy it in the time that we need it.
来开发这项技术，并在我们需要它的时候部署它。
And if you're on either side, wizard or prophet, you have to worry that, despite the massive alarm about climate change,
不管你站在哪一方，巫师或先知，你必须担心，尽管不乏关于气候变化的警报，
the amount of energy generated every year from fossil fuels has gone up by about 30 percent since the beginning of this century.
但是自本世纪初以来，化石燃料每年产生的能源增加了大约30%。
So, still think we're different than the protozoa? Still think we're special?
所以，你还认为我们和原生动物不一样吗？还觉得我们很特别吗？
Actually, it's even worse than that.
实际上，我们还不如它们呢。
We're not in the streets. No seriously, if there's a difference between us and the protozoa, a difference that matters,
我们不在街道上。说真的，如果说我们和原生动物之间有区别，一个重要的区别的话，
it's not just our art and science and technology and so forth
不仅仅是我们的艺术，科学，技术等等，
it's that we can yell and scream, we can go out into the streets,
我们可以镇臂高呼，我们可以走上街，
and, over time, change the way society works, but we're not doing it.
随着时间的推移，改变社会运作的方式，但我们没有这样做。
Wizards have been arguing literally for decades that nuclear power
几十年来，巫师们一直认为核能
is key to saving climate change. Resolving climate change, not saving it. Sorry.
是保护气候变化的关键。不好意思，是解决气候变化，不是保护气候变化。
But the first pro-nuke march in history occurred less than two years ago,
但历史上第一次亲核游行发生在不到两年前，
and it was dwarfed by the anti-nuke marches of the past.
并且与过去的反核游行相比，它显得微不足道。
Prophets have been arguing, again literally for decades,
同样地，几十年来，先知们一直认为，
that conservation is key to keeping freshwater supplies without destroying the ecosystems that generate those freshwater supplies.
节约是保障淡水供应而不破坏产生这些淡水供应的生态系统的关键。
But in the history of humankind, there has never been a street full of angry protesters waving signs about leaky pipes.
但是在人类历史上，从来没有一条街道上满是愤怒的抗议者挥舞着漏水管道的标语。
In fact, most of the political activity in this sphere has been wizards and prophets fighting each other, protesting each other
事实上，这一领域的大多数政治活动都是巫师和先知相互争斗、相互抗议，
rather than recognizing that they are, fundamentally, on the same side.
而没有认识到他们从根本上是站在同一边的。
After all, these people are concerned about the same thing:
毕竟，这些人关心的是同一件事：
How are we going to make our way in the world of 10 billion?
在拥有100亿人口的世界上，我们将如何前进？
The first step towards generating that necessary social movement,
产生必要的社会运动
creating that critical mass and getting that yelling and screaming going seems obvious: wizards and prophets join together.
创造群聚效应，让那些大喊大叫继续下去的第一步似乎是显而易见的：巫师和先知联合在一起。
But how are you going to do this, given the decades of hostility?
但考虑到几十年的宿怨，怎么才能做到这一点呢？
One way might be this: Each side agrees to accept the fundamental premises of the other.
一种可能的方式是：双方都认同对方的基本前提。
Accept that nuclear power is safe and carbon-free, and that uranium mines can be hideously dirty
接受核能是安全的、无碳的，铀矿可能肮脏得可怕，
and that putting large volumes of toxic waste on rickety trains and shuttling them around the countryside is a terrible idea.
把大量的有毒废物放在摇摇晃晃的火车上，然后在乡间来回穿梭，这是一个可怕的想法。
To me, this leads rather quickly to a vision
对我来说，这样很快就会形成一个愿景：
of small, neighborhood scale, temporary nukes, nuclear power as a bridge technology while we develop and deploy renewables.
在我们开发和部署可再生能源的同时，以小型、社区规模的、临时性的核电站作为过渡性技术。
Or accept that genetically modified crops are safe and that industrial agriculture has caused huge environmental problems.
或者接受转基因作物是安全的，而农业工业化已经造成了巨大的环境问题。
To me, this leads rather quickly to a vision of plant scientists devoting much more of their attention to tree and tuber crops,
对我来说，这样很快就会形成另一个愿景：植物科学家把更多的注意力放在树木和块茎作物上，
which can be much more productive than cereals, use much less water than cereals, and cause much less erosion than cereals.
这些作物可以比谷物更多产、比谷物消耗更少的水、比谷物造成更少的侵蚀。
Look. These are just ideas from a random journalist.
听着。这些只是一个普通记者的想法。
I'm sure there's a hundred better ones right here in this room.
我肯定这个会场里还有100个更好的想法。
The main point is, wizards and prophets working together have many paths to success.
重要的是，巫师和先知合作就会有很多成功的办法。
And success would mean much more than mere survival, important though that is.
成功不仅仅意味着生存，尽管生存很重要。
I mean, if humankind somehow survives its own outbreak,
我想说的是，如果人类以某种方式从物种爆发中幸存下来，
if we get food to everybody, get water to everybody, get power to everybody,
如果我们让每个人都有食物、有水、有电，
if we avoid the worst effects of climate change, if we somehow safeguard the biome, it would be amazing.
如果我们能避免气候变化的最坏影响，如果我们能以某种方式保护生物群落，那将是惊人的。
It would say, I think, even to a hardened cynic like me, maybe we really are special. Thank you.
到时候我想即使像我这样强硬的愤世嫉俗者也会承认，或许我们人类真的与众不同。谢谢。
