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I want to tell you a story about stories.
今天我想讲一个关于小说的故事。
And I want to tell you this story because I think we need to remember that
我之所以想分享这个故事是因为我认为我们需要记住，
sometimes the stories we tell each other are more than just tales or entertainment or narratives.
有时我们向别人讲述的故事并不仅仅是传说，或只为博君一笑或为了记叙的故事。
They're also vehicles for sowing inspiration and ideas across our societies and across time.
它们也承载着我们传播跨越社会和时间的奇思妙想。
The story I'm about to tell you is about how one of the most advanced technological achievements of the modern era has its roots in stories,
今天我讲的故事是关于一个现代的最高先进的科技成就是如何起源于一个小说故事，
and how some of the most important transformations yet to come might also.
以及一些最重要的，还未发生的变革为何也是如此。
The story begins over 300 years ago, when Galileo Galilei first learned of the recent Dutch invention
这个故事发生在三百多年前，在伽利略初次了解到一个当时最新的荷兰发明的时候，
that took two pieces of shaped glass and put them in a long tube and thereby extended human sight farther than ever before.
这个发明是将两片打磨过的玻璃放入一个长管道里，并且从此将人类视野延伸到从未有过的远度。
When Galileo turned his new telescope to the heavens and to the Moon in particular, he discovered something incredible.
当伽利略将他新发明的望远镜对向天际并且特别对准月亮时，他得到了惊人的发现。
These are pages from Galileo's book "Sidereus Nuncius," published in 1610.
这些内容来源于伽利略1610年出版的《星际信使》。
And in them, he revealed to the world what he had discovered.
他在这本书里向世界揭示了他的发现。
And what he discovered was that the Moon was not just a celestial object wandering across the night sky,
他发现月球不仅仅是一个在夜空中游荡的天体，
but rather, it was a world, a world with high, sunlit mountains and dark "mare," the Latin word for seas.
而是一个拥有阳光照射的高山以深邃的“海洋”的世界。
And once this new world and the Moon had been discovered, people immediately began to think about how to travel there.
这个新世界和月亮的大门一旦开启，人们立即开始思考如何到月球旅行。
And just as importantly, they began to write stories about how that might happen and what those voyages might be like.
同样重要的是，他们开始着手撰写关于如何实现月球旅行以及航行细节的小说故事。
One of the first people to do so was actually the Bishop of Hereford, a man named Francis Godwin.
实际上赫里福德主教是最早一批开始做这些事的人之一，他的真实名字是弗朗西斯·戈德温。
Godwin wrote a story about a Spanish explorer, Domingo Gonsales,
戈德温写了一个关于西班牙探险家多明戈·冈萨雷斯的故事，
who ended up marooned on the island of St. Helena in the middle of the Atlantic,
他被困在大西洋中间一个叫做圣赫勒拿的岛上，
and there, in an effort to get home, developed a machine, an invention,
而他为了回到家乡，发明了一个机器，
to harness the power of the local wild geese to allow him to fly -- and eventually to embark on a voyage to the Moon.
这个机器可以驾驭当地的野生大雁载着他飞行--并最终开启了一段前往月球的行程。
Godwin's book, "The Man in the Moone, or a Discourse of a Voyage Thither,"
戈德温写的《月中人或论月球之旅》
was only published posthumously and anonymously in 1638,
在他死后的1638年才被匿名的出版，
likely on account of the number of controversial ideas that it contained,
这极有可能是因为书中包含着饱受争议的观点，
including an endorsement of the Copernican view of the universe that put the Sun at the center of the Solar System,
包括对哥白尼日心说宇宙观的支持，
as well as a pre-Newtonian concept of gravity that had the idea
以及在牛顿之前提出的万有引力概念，
that the weight of an object would decrease with increasing distance from Earth.
即一个物体的重量随着与地球距离增加而减少。
And that's to say nothing of his idea of a goose machine that could go to the Moon.
他的大雁机器想法也就是说说而已，肯定是无法到月球的。
And while this idea of a voyage to the Moon by goose machine might not seem particularly insightful or technically creative to us today,
尽管这个利用大雁机器飞向月球的想法在今天看来并无远见，技术上也没有创意，
what's important is that Godwin described getting to the Moon not by a dream or by magic, as Johannes Kepler had written about,
但重要的是戈德温描述的不是通过做梦或像开普勒写的那样通过魔法实现登月，
but rather, through human invention.
而是通过人类发明实现。
And it was this idea that we could build machines that could travel into the heavens,
正是我们能够建造可以遨游天际的机器这一思想
that would plant its seed in minds across the generations.
在世世代代的人心中播下了种子。
The idea was next taken up by his contemporary, John Wilkins,
接着，同时代的约翰·威尔金斯继承了戈德温的思想，
then just a young student at Oxford, but later, one of the founders of the Royal Society.
当时他只是一名来自牛津大学的年轻学生，但后来，他成为了英国皇家学会的创始人之一。
John Wilkins took the idea of space travel in Godwin's text seriously
约翰·威尔金斯认真汲取了戈德温书中太空旅行的观点，
and wrote not just another story, but a nonfiction philosophical treatise,
并在此基础上完成了另一个故事，这是一篇非虚构类哲学类专著，
entitled, "Discovery of the New World in the Moon, or, a Discourse Tending to Prove that 'tis Probable There May Be Another Habitable World in that Planet."
题目是《新世界的发现或一种倾向于证明那颗行星上可能有个可居住的世界的论述》。
And note, by the way, that word "habitable."
注意“可居住”这个词。
That idea in itself would have been a powerful incentive for people thinking about how to build machines that could go there.
这个想法本身就能强烈激励人们思考怎样建造通往那里的机器。
In his books, Wilkins seriously considered a number of technical methods for spaceflight,
在书中，威尔金斯严谨地考虑了几种太空飞行的技术方法，
and it remains to this day the earliest known nonfiction account of how we might travel to the Moon.
这是已知最早的非虚构类的关于我们如何登月的说明。
Other stories would soon follow, most notably by Cyrano de Bergerac, with his "Lunar Tales."
其他故事接踵而至，最有名的是西拉诺·德·贝尔热拉克的《月球传说》。
By the mid-17th century, the idea of people building machines that could travel to the heavens was growing in complexity and technical nuance.
到17世纪中期，人们建机器飞向太空的想法逐渐趋于复杂和技术差异化。
And yet, in the late 17th century, this intellectual progress effectively ceased.
但在十七世纪晚期，这项智力上的进步实际上停止了。
People still told stories about getting to the Moon,
人们虽然依旧讲述着去往月亮的故事，
but they relied on the old ideas or, once again, on dreams or on magic. Why?
但他们依赖着过去的想法，或是再一次依赖于梦或是魔法。为什么？
Well, because the discovery of the laws of gravity by Newton and the invention of the vacuum pump by Robert Hooke and Robert Boyle
因为牛顿发现的万有引力定律以及罗伯特·胡克与罗伯特·波伊尔发明的真空泵，
meant that people now understood that a condition of vacuum existed between the planets,
意味着人们现在认识到星球之间存在真空环境，
and consequentially between the Earth and the Moon.
因此推断地球与月球之间也是如此。
And they had no way of overcoming this, no way of thinking about overcoming this.
他们没有克服的方法，也没有思考如何克服。
And so, for well over a century,
一个多世纪过去了，
the idea of a voyage to the Moon made very little intellectual progress until the rise of the Industrial Revolution
登月想法实质上只有细微的进展，这种情况持续到工业革命兴起，
and the development of steam engines and boilers and most importantly, pressure vessels.
蒸汽机和锅炉的发展，最重要的是压力容器的发明。
And these gave people the tools to think about how they could build a capsule that could resist the vacuum of space.
这赋予人们工具来建造能抵御真空宇宙的太空舱。
So it was in this context, in 1835, that the next great story of spaceflight was written, by Edgar Allan Poe.
在这一背景下，1835年，下一个宇宙航行的故事被爱伦·坡所写。
Now, today we think of Poe in terms of gothic poems and telltale hearts and ravens.
如今，我们提到爱伦·坡，就会想到哥特诗、短篇小说《泄密的心》以及诗歌《乌鸦》。
But he considered himself a technical thinker.
但是他认为自己是一个技术思想家。
He grew up in Baltimore, the first American city with gas street lighting,
他在巴尔的摩长大，一个最早拥有燃气路灯的美国城市，
and he was fascinated by the technological revolution that he saw going on all around him.
他被在他周围发生的技术革命所吸引。
He considered his own greatest work not to be one of his gothic tales but rather his epic prose poem "Eureka,"
他认为自己的最大成就不是他的哥特诗，而是他史诗般的散文诗歌《我发现了》，
in which he expounded his own personal view of the cosmographical nature of the universe.
他详述了自己关于宇宙的结构本质的个人观点。
In his stories, he would describe in fantastical technical detail machines and contraptions,
他在故事中详细描述了空想的机器装置技术，
and nowhere was he more influential in this than in his short story, "The Unparalleled Adventure of One Hans Pfaall."
在这方面，他的短篇小说《汉斯·普法尔历险记》最有影响力。
It's a story of an unemployed bellows maker in Rotterdam, who, depressed and tired of life -- this is Poe, after all
小说讲述了一个在鹿特丹做风箱的失业者，抑郁不得志，厌倦了人生--这毕竟是爱伦·坡的风格，
and deeply in debt, he decides to build a hermetically enclosed balloon-borne carriage that is launched into the air by dynamite
而且欠了一屁股债的故事，他决定建造一个气密封闭的气球运输船，通过炸药发射到空中，
and from there, floats through the vacuum of space all the way to the lunar surface.
并从那里漂浮到太空中，一直到月球表面。
And importantly, he did not develop this story alone, for in the appendix to his tale,
重要的是，这个故事并不是他独自的创作，在故事的附录中，
he explicitly acknowledged Godwin's "A Man in the Moone" from over 200 years earlier as an influence,
他明确地承认了这本书受到戈德温200多年前的小说《月中人》的影响，
calling it "a singular and somewhat ingenious little book."
他称这是“一本非凡绝妙的小书”。
And although this idea of a balloon-borne voyage to the Moon may seem not much more technically sophisticated than the goose machine,
虽然这个利用气球运输机去往月球的想法看起来在技术上比大雁机器靠谱不了多少，
in fact, Poe was sufficiently detailed in the description of the construction of the device
但事实上，爱伦·坡非常详细的描述了设备的构造，
and in terms of the orbital dynamics of the voyage
并且就航行的轨道动力学而言，
that it could be diagrammed in the very first spaceflight encyclopedia as a mission in the 1920s.
它可以在第一本航天百科全书中作为20世纪20年代的使命来描绘。
And it was this attention to detail, or to "verisimilitude," as he called it,
正是对于细节的专注或如他自己所说的“逼真”，
that would influence the next great story: Jules Verne's "From the Earth to the Moon," written in 1865.
影响了下一个伟大的故事：凡尔纳在1865年写了《从地球到月球》。
And it's a story that has a remarkable legacy
这是一个给后世留下了伟大遗产的故事，
and a remarkable similarity to the real voyages to the Moon that would take place over a hundred years later.
与真正发生于百年之后的月球之旅有着惊人的相似之处。
Because in the story, the first voyage to the Moon takes place from Florida,
因为在这个故事里，第一次登月始于佛罗里达，
with three people on board, in a trip that takes three days
飞船上有三人，经历了3天行程，
exactly the parameters that would prevail during the Apollo program itself.
这些数据与阿波罗计划完全一致。
And in an explicit tribute to Poe's influence on him,
为了向爱伦·坡致敬，
Verne situated the group responsible for this feat in the book in Baltimore, at the Baltimore Gun Club,
凡尔纳将这本书中负责这一伟大壮举的组织设立在巴尔的摩枪支俱乐部，
with its members shouting, "Cheers for Edgar Poe!" as they began to lay out their plans for their conquest of the Moon.
当他们开始制定征服月球的计划时，成员们大喊“为爱伦·坡干杯！”
And just as Verne was influenced by Poe,
正如凡尔纳深受爱伦坡的影响，
so, too, would Verne's own story go on to influence and inspire the first generation of rocket scientists.
凡尔纳自己的故事接着启发影响了第一代火箭科学家们。
The two great pioneers of liquid fuel rocketry in Russia and in Germany, Konstantin Tsiolkovsky and Hermann Oberth,
两位分别来自于俄罗斯与德国的液体燃料火箭的先驱，Konstantin Tsiolkovsky与Hermann Oberth，
both traced their own commitment to the field of spaceflight to their reading "From the Earth to the Moon" as teenagers,
他们投身于太空飞行领域都能追溯到青少年时期读了《从地球到月球》这本书，
and then subsequently committing themselves to trying to make that story a reality.
然后致力于使这个故事成真。
And Verne's story was not the only one in the 19th century with a long arm of influence.
凡尔纳的故事不是十九世纪唯一有长远影响的一个。
On the other side of the Atlantic, H.G. Wells's "War of the Worlds" directly inspired a young man in Massachusetts, Robert Goddard.
在大西洋的另一边，威尔斯的《世界大战》直接启发了一个麻省的年轻人，罗伯特·戈达德。
And it was after reading "War of the Worlds" that Goddard wrote in his diary, one day in the late 1890s,
正是在读了《世界大战》后，他在日记里写道，19世纪90年代末的一天，
of resting while trimming a cherry tree on his family's farm
他在家里的农场修剪樱桃树时，
and having a vision of a spacecraft taking off from the valley below and ascending into the heavens.
在脑海中浮现了宇宙飞船从下面的山谷起飞上升到空中这一幕。
And he decided then and there that he would commit the rest of his life to the development of the spacecraft that he saw in his mind's eye.
从此他决定将余生奉献于研发他脑海中出现的宇宙飞船。
And he did exactly that.
他的确做到了。
Throughout his career, he would celebrate that day as his anniversary day, his cherry tree day,
在他的职业生涯中，他将修剪樱桃树那一天作为他的周年纪念日来庆祝，
and he would regularly read and reread the works of Verne and of Wells
他反复研读凡尔纳与威尔斯的著作，
in order to renew his inspiration and his commitment over the decades of labor and effort
为了不断获得灵感，不断提醒自己的承诺，经过数十年的努力工作，
that would be required to realize the first part of his dream: the flight of a liquid fuel rocket, which he finally achieved in 1926.
终于在1926年实现了梦想的第一部分：发明了液体火箭。
So it was while reading "From the Earth to the Moon" and "The War of the Worlds"
正是在《从地球到月球》和《世界大战》这些书中，
that the first pioneers of astronautics were inspired to dedicate their lives to solving the problems of spaceflight.
第一批航天先驱受到启发，并将其一生投入到解决宇宙飞船的问题中。
And it was their treatises and their works in turn that inspired the first technical communities and the first projects of spaceflight,
正是他们的文章与作品促进了第一个技术社区和第一个宇宙飞行项目的诞生，
thus creating a direct chain of influence that goes from Godwin to Poe
从而形成了直接的影响力链。
to Verne to the Apollo program and to the present-day communities of spaceflight.
从戈德温到爱伦·坡、凡尔纳，再到阿波罗计划，直到今天的宇宙飞行。
So why I have told you all this? Is it just because I think it's cool,
我讲这些故事的原因是什么？只是因为我觉得这很酷吗，
or because I'm just weirdly fascinated by stories of 17th- and 19th-century science fiction?
还是仅仅因为我被这些奇怪的，17或19世纪的科幻小说所深深地吸引着？
It is, admittedly, partly that.
我承认，这是部分原因。
But I also think that these stories remind us of the cultural processes driving spaceflight and even technological innovation more broadly.
但更重要的是，这些故事提醒着我们，文化进程推动了宇宙飞行甚至更广义上的技术创新。
As an economist working at NASA, I spend time thinking about the economic origins of our movement out into the cosmos.
作为一名在美国宇航局工作的经济学家，我常思考有关人类迈向宇宙的经济起源。
And when you look before the investments of billionaire tech entrepreneurs and before the Cold War Space Race,
在来自科技圈的亿万富翁企业家的投资，冷战时期的太空竞赛，
and even before the military investments in liquid fuel rocketry,
甚至在军方投资液体燃料火箭之前，
the economic origins of spaceflight are found in stories and in ideas.
太空旅行就已经起源于故事和想法中。
It was in these stories that the first concepts for spaceflight were articulated.
正是在这些故事里，人们构建了第一个太空飞行的概念。
And it was through these stories that the narrative of a future for humanity in space began to propagate from mind to mind,
也正是通过这些故事，对未来人类在太空生活的憧憬，开始在大众的脑海中传播开来，
eventually creating an intergenerational intellectual community that would iterate on the ideas for spacecraft
并最终形成了跨越几代人的知识共同体，去不断迭代太空飞船的构思，
until such a time as they could finally be built.
直到真的建成太空飞船。
This process has now been going on for over 300 years, and the result is a culture of spaceflight.
这个过程一直持续了三百多年，形成了太空飞行文化。
It's a culture that involves thousands of people over hundreds of years.
数千人在几百年间对其做出了贡献。
Because for hundreds of years, some of us have looked at the stars and longed to go.
因为上百年来，我们当中的一些人在不断仰望星空，渴望登月。
And because for hundreds of years,
因为几百年来，
some of us have dedicated our labors to the development of the concepts and systems required to make those voyages possible.
我们中的一些人致力于发展使这些航行成为可能所需要的概念和系统。
I also wanted to tell you about Godwin, Poe and Verne
我给大家讲述戈德温、爱伦坡和凡尔纳的故事，
because I think their stories also tell us of the importance of the stories that we tell each other about the future more generally.
是因为我认为他们的故事告诉了我们人们口口相传的关于未来的故事具有更普遍的重要性。
Because these stories don't just transmit information or ideas.
因为这些故事不仅仅传递了信息或想法。
They can also nurture passions, passions that can lead us to dedicate our lives to the realization of important projects.
还孕育了一种激情，一种可以让人贡献一生去实现重要计划的激情。
Which means that these stories can and do influence social and technological forces centuries into the future.
这意味着这些故事也确实可以影响未来几个世纪的社会和科技进步。
I think we need to realize this and remember it when we tell our stories.
我认为当我们讲故事的时候，需要意识到并牢记这点。
We need to work hard to write stories that don't just show us the possible dystopian paths we may take for a fear
我们需要努力地撰写故事，不只是说明我们可能走上的反乌托邦道路是出于这样一种恐惧，
that the more dystopian stories we tell each other, the more we plant seeds for possible dystopian futures.
即对彼此讲述的反乌托邦故事越多，我们为可能的反乌托邦未来播下的种子就越多。
Instead we need to tell stories that plant the seeds, if not necessarily for utopias,
相反，我们需要讲述一些故事，即使不一定是为乌托邦播下种子，
then at least for great new projects of technological, societal and institutional transformation.
至少也要为伟大的新技术、社会和体制改革项目播下种子。
And if we think of this idea that the stories we tell each other can transform the future is fanciful or impossible,
如果我们认为我们对彼此讲述的故事可以扭转未来的这个想法是异想天开或是不可能的话，
then I think we need to remember the example of this, our voyage to the Moon,
那么我认为我们需要记住一个例子，我们的探月之旅，
an idea from the 17th century that propagated culturally for over 300 years until it could finally be realized.
这个从17世纪便浮现的想法，已经在文化中传播了超过300年，直到探月之旅最终实现。
So, we need to write new stories, stories that, 300 years in the future, people will be able to look back upon
因此，我们需要撰写新的故事，让人们在300年以后的未来可以通过这些故事回溯过去，
and remark how they inspired us to new heights and to new shores,
去评价它们是如何启发人们到达新的高度，突破新的边界，
how they showed us new paths and new possibilities, and how they shaped our world for the better. Thank you.
它们是如何向我们展示新道路和新的可能性，以及它们是如何更好地塑造了我们的世界。谢谢大家。
