评论
打印
I'm a biological oceanographer. I have the absolute privilege of studying microbial lives in the Pacific Ocean.
作为一名生物海洋学家，我一直很荣幸能够研究太平洋里的微生物。
So we'll talk about microbes in a minute, but I first want to give you a sense of place, a sense of scale.
我们待会儿会谈到微生物，但首先，我想让大家熟悉一下这个空间和它的规模。
The Pacific Ocean is our largest, deepest ocean basin. It covers 60 million square miles.
太平洋是地球上最大、最深的海洋盆地。它覆盖了地球表面1.6亿平方公里的区域。
If you took all the continents and you put them together in a little Pangaea 2.0,
如果你把所有的大陆拼在一起，形成一个现代版本的盘古大陆，
they'd fit snug inside the Pacific, with room to spare.
它们可以被完整地塞入太平洋，甚至还有多余的空间。
It's a massive ecosystem, from the blues of the open ocean to the green of the continental margins.
太平洋是一个巨大的生态系统，从蓝色的开放海域延伸到绿色的大陆边缘。
In this place, I get to study the base of the food web: plankton.
在这里，我研究的是食物网的基础：浮游生物。
Now, in my research, and really in the field of microbial oceanography as a whole,
在我的研究当中，或者说是在整个微生物海洋学领域，
there's a theme that has emerged, and that theme is "change."
已经出现了一个主题，这个主题就是“变化”。
These microbial ecosystems are changing in real and measurable ways, and it is not that hard to see it.
这些微生物生态系统正在以真实且可衡量的方式发生变化，而且这种变化不难发现。
Oceans cover 70 percent of our planet, so ocean change is planetary change, and it all starts with microbes.
我们这颗星球70%的表面积都被海洋所覆盖，所以海洋的改变意味着整颗星球的改变，而这种改变从微生物开始。
Now, I have two vignettes to share with you, and these are meant to be love stories to microbes.
我想和各位分享两则小故事，本意是与微生物的爱情故事。
But I'll be honest that there's an aspect of it that's just a total bummer, and, beware, focus on the love. Right?
但说实话，这些故事的某一方面完全是一场悲剧，请各位小心，把注意力放在爱上。
That's where I'm coming from. So the first thing to know is that the forests of the sea are microbial.
因为我就是这样的人。首先要明白的是，海洋的森林是由微生物组成的。
And what I mean by that is that, by and large, plants in the open ocean are microscopic,
我的意思是，总的来说，海洋中的植物是微观的，
and they are much more abundant than we realize.
它们的品种远比我们了解得还要丰富。
So I'm going to show you some mug shots of these organisms that I've collected over the years.
下面我将给你们展示一下多年来我收集的这些生命体的“证件照”。
These are the lowest rungs of the ocean food web.
它们是海洋食物网中的最低阶层。
These are tiny plants and animals that come in a variety of shapes and sizes and colors and metabolisms.
它们是形状、大小、颜色和新陈代谢方式各异的微型动植物。
There are hundreds of thousands in a single milliliter of seawater.
一毫升海水中就有数十万微生物。
You are definitely swimming with them when you're in the ocean.
毫无疑问，无数微生物与你在海洋中共同遨游。
They produce oxygen, they consume CO2, and they form the base of the food web on which every other form of ocean life is reliant.
它们产生氧气，消耗二氧化碳，它们构成了其他所有海洋生物赖以生存的食物网的基础。
Now, I've spent about 500 days of my scientific life at sea,
我的科学生涯已有约500天在海上度过，
and a lot more in front of a computer or in the lab, so I feel compelled to tell you some of their stories.
还有更多日子则是在电脑前或实验室里度过，所以我认为有必要和各位讲讲它们的故事。
Let's start in the Pacific Northwest. This place is green. It is beautiful.
我们从太平洋西北地区开始讲起吧。这一带地区洋溢着绿意与壮美。
These are blooms of phytoplankton that you can see from space along the West Coast of the United States.
沿着美国西海岸，生长着浮游植物藻华，从太空中都能看见。
It's an incredibly productive ecosystem.
这是一种非常高产的生态系统。
This is where you go to salmon fish, halibut fish, whale watch. It's a beautiful part of our country.
这里是捕捞鲑鱼、比目鱼，以及观赏鲸鱼的绝佳胜地。这是我们国家最美的地方。
And here, for 10 years, among other things, I studied the uplifting topic of harmful algal blooms.
我在这里进行了十年的研究，其中包括关于有害藻华的“振奋人心”的工作。
These are blooms of toxin-producing phytoplankton that can contaminate food webs
这些藻华由会产生毒素的浮游植物所形成，它们会污染食物网，
and accumulate in shellfish and fish that are harvested for human consumption.
并在被人类渔获食用的贝类和鱼类体内累积。
We were trying to understand why they bloom, where they bloom, when they bloom,
我们试图了解它们爆发的原因、地点和时间，
so we could manage these harvests and protect human health.
以管理渔业收成，并保护人类的健康。
Now, the problem is the ocean's a moving target and, much like some people in our lives, toxicity varies among the plankton.
问题在于，大海是一个不断变化的目标，而就如同人性各异，浮游生物的毒性也各不相同。
Alright? So, to get around these challenges, we combined satellite remote sensing with drones and gliders,
对吧？因此，为了克服这些挑战，我们结合了卫星遥感、无人机和滑翔机，
regular sampling of the surf zone and a lot of time at sea in small boats off the Oregon coast.
定期采样冲浪区，乘着小船从俄勒冈州海岸出海，进行了长时间的海上研究。
And I don't know if many of you have had the opportunity to do that, but it is not easy.
我不知道各位中有多少人有过这样的经历，但这其实并不轻松。
Here's some poor students. I've hidden their faces to protect their identities.
这是一些可怜的学生。我挡住了他们的脸，以保护他们的隐私。
This is a challenging place. So this is hard-won data I'm about to talk about, OK?
这是一个充满挑战的地方。我接下来要讲的数据来之不易，大家能明白了吗？
So by combining all of our data with our collaborators, we had 20-year time series of toxins and phytoplankton cell counts.
通过跟合作团队整合了所有数据，我们获得了20年的毒素及浮游植物细胞计数的时间序列。
And that allowed us to understand the patterns of these blooms and to build models to predict them.
这使得我们能够理解这些藻华的规律，并建立模型对其进行预测。
And what we found was that the risk of harmful algal blooms was tightly linked to aspects of climate.
我们发现有害藻华的爆发风险与气候状况息息相关。
Now when I say "climate," I don't mean weather day-to-day, I mean long-term changes.
我说的“气候”不是指每天的天气变化，而是长期的气候变化。
These oscillations that you may have heard of -- the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño
你可能听说过这些气候振荡，太平洋十年涛动（PDO），厄尔尼诺现象，
they usually bring warm, dry winters to this region, but they also reduce the strength of the California Current,
它们通常会让太平洋地区的冬天变得温暖干燥，但它们也会降低加利福尼亚洋流的强度，
which runs from the north to the south along the Pacific Northwest, and they warm the coastal ocean.
即沿太平洋西北部从北向南行进的洋流，从而让沿海海洋变得温暖。
These are the reds you're seeing in this plot, warm anomalies, strong positive indices of the PDO.
图中你们所看到的红色区域就是异常温暖的区域，是太平洋十年涛动的强力指数。
And when we have these changes in circulation and changes in temperature, the risk of harmful algal blooms is increased,
当发生这些洋流变化和温度变化时，不仅有害藻华形成的风险会大大增加，
but also salmon recruitment has decreased, and we see intrusions of invasive species like green crab.
鲑鱼的数量也有所减少，我们还能观察到外来物种入侵，例如青蟹。
So these are ecological and economic impacts of climate.
这些都是气候对生态和经济的影响。
Now, if our models are right,
如果我们的模型正确，
the frequency and severity of these events are only going to get worse, right along with these warm anomalies.
这些事件和异常温暖的气候只会变得更加频繁、更加严重。
And, to illustrate that, 2014 was probably one of the worst harmful algal blooms in Oregon history.
举个例子，2014年可能是俄勒冈历史上有害藻华爆发最严重的一年。
It was also the hottest year in the modern climate record at that time, that is until 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018.
这也是现代气候记录中最热的一年，直到2015年刷新了记录，2016年，2017，2018年。
In fact, the five hottest years in the modern climate record have been the last five.
事实上，在现代气候记录中最热的五年就是过去这五年。
That bodes really well for harmful algal blooms and poorly for ecosystem health.
这对有害藻华是好消息，但对生态系统健康则是噩耗。
Now, you may not care about shellfish, but these changes impact economically important fisheries,
你们可能不太关心贝类，但这些变化会影响具有重要经济意义的渔业，
like crab and salmon, and they can impact the health of marine mammals like whales.
比如螃蟹和鲑鱼，它们进而会影响鲸等海洋哺乳动物的健康。
And that might matter a little bit more. That might resonate.
这可能会显得更加重要，更容易引起共鸣。
So, there's your doomsday tale for the margins of the Pacific.
可以说，太平洋边缘正在上演世界末日大片。
Actually, these are really resilient ecosystems. They can absolutely bounce back if we give them a chance.
事实上，这些生态系统都很有韧性。如果我们给它们机会，它们绝对可以恢复。
The point is not to ignore the changes that we're seeing, which brings me to my second vignette.
重点是不要忽视我们所看到的变化，这就要提到我的第二个小故事。
I have since moved to the most remote island chain on our planet, the Hawaiian Islands,
后来我去了地球上最偏僻的岛链，夏威夷群岛进行研究，
where I'm the new lead of a program called the Hawaiian Ocean Time-series.
在那里，我是“夏威夷海洋时间序列”项目的新负责人。
And this is a program that for 31 years has made this monthly pilgrimage to a spot called Station ALOHA.
这个项目已进行了31年，其间每个月，研究员都会到阿罗哈站点进行“朝圣”。
It's in the middle of the Pacific Ocean,
这个站点位于太平洋中央，
in the center of this vast, swirling system of currents that we call the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre.
这个巨大的漩涡状洋流系统的中心，我们称之为“北太平洋亚热带环流”。
It's our largest ocean ecosystem. It's four times the size of the Amazon rain forest.
这是我们最大的海洋生态系统。它有亚马逊雨林的四倍那么大。
It is warm, in a good way. It is blue water, it's absolutely the type of place you want to dive in and swim.
温暖得令人身心愉悦，海水清澈碧蓝，绝对是你想去潜水和游泳的理想地点。
You cannot do that off of research boats, because, you know, sharks. Google it.
但你不能离开研究船，因为那儿鲨鱼多得很。谷歌一下你就知道。
This is a beautiful place. And here, since October of 1988, generations of researchers have made these monthly pilgrimages.
这是个美丽的地方。在这里，自1988年10月以来，几代研究员每个月都来这里“朝拜”。
We study the biology, the chemistry, the physics of the open ocean.
我们研究开放海域的生物学、化学、物理学。
We've measured the temperature from the surface to the seafloor. We've tracked the currents, traced the waves.
我们测量从海面到海底的水温，跟踪潮涌、追踪海浪。
People have discovered new organisms here.
人们在这里发现了新物种。
People have created vast genomic libraries that have revolutionized what we think about the diversity of marine microorganisms.
人们创建了庞大的基因组库，彻底改革了我们对海洋微生物多样性的看法。
It's not just a place of discovery, but the important part about time series
这不仅仅是新发现的宝地，时间序列更重要的地方在于，
are that they provide us a sense of history, a sense of context.
它让我们得以一览海洋的历史和变化轨迹。
And in 30 years of data, it's allowed us to separate the seasonal change
这30年以来的数据使我们能够区分季节性变化，
and see the emergence of humanity's fingerprints on the natural world.
观察人类在自然界留下的指痕。
There's another iconic time series in Hawaii, and that is the Keeling Curve. I hope you have all seen this.
在夏威夷还有另一个标志性的时间序列，那就是基林曲线。希望大家都见过它。
This time series has documented the rapid increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
该时间序列记载了大气中二氧化碳的急剧增加。
It's not just the number, it's the rate of increase.
不仅是数字在增加，增长率也在增加。
The rate of carbon dioxide increase in our atmosphere is unprecedented for our planet. And that has consequences for our oceans.
这个星球大气中的二氧化碳正以前所未有的速率增长，已经对我们的海洋造成了影响。
In fact, oceans absorb about 90 percent of the heat that's generated by greenhouse gas emissions and about 40 percent of the carbon dioxide.
实际上，海洋吸收了大约90％由温室气体排放产生的热量，以及大约40％的二氧化碳。
And we have been able to measure that at Station ALOHA. Each one of these dots is a cruise.
而我们已经能够在阿罗哈站测量出这样的变化。图中的每个点都来自一次航行的测量。
It represents people's lives over 30 years trying to make these measurements, and it took 30 years to be able to see this.
它代表了30多年以来不断进行测量的研究员的人生，花了30年才能看到这个结果。
CO2 rises in the atmosphere, CO2 rises in the ocean. That's the red line.
二氧化碳在大气中增加，在海洋中增加，就是图中的红线。
A consequence of that is a fundamental change in the chemistry of seawater, a decline in pH
其增加造成了海水化学性质的根本变化，即pH值的下降，
pH is on a log scale, here's your blue line.
pH值是基于对数尺度的，也就是图中的蓝线。
So we've seen a 30 percent decline in pH in the surface ocean in this time series.
我们已经看到了在这个时间序列中，海洋表层的pH值下降了30%。
Now that has impacts for organisms that need to feed, build shells, that changes growth rates, metabolic interactions,
这种变化影响了需要觅食、筑壳的生物，改变了它们的生长速度和新陈代谢作用，
and it doesn't just impact plankton -- it impacts ecosystems as large as coral reefs.
它不仅影响了浮游生物--还影响了像珊瑚礁一样庞大的生态系统。
Now one of the things we've been able to show in this time series is this is just skimming the surface.
从这个时间序列中，我们还发现，这些数据结果还仅仅是冰山一角。
Increases in CO2 and a decline in pH are measured over the top 500 meters of the water column. I really find that to be profound.
二氧化碳增加和pH值下降的数据都是在水体表层500米内测量的。我认为其意义非常重大。
This is genuinely one of the most remote places on our planet, and we've impacted the top 500 meters of the water column.
这里真的是地球上最偏远的地方，而我们已经影响了表层500米的水体。
Now, these two things -- harmful algal blooms, ocean acidification -- that's not all, of course.
所以就是这两件事--有害藻华和海洋酸化--当然，还不止如此。
You've heard of the rest: sea-level rise, eutrophication, melting of the polar ice caps,
你们一定还听说过别的事例：海平面上升、富营养化、极地冰盖融化，
expansion of oxygen minimum zones, pollution, loss of biodiversity, overfishing.
海洋最低氧区扩大化、污染、生物多样性丧失，过度捕捞。
It's hard for me to get a grad student -- you can see this pitch is a difficult one, right?
我很难招到研究生--你们能体会到这个现状多么艰难吧？
Again, I think these systems, these microbial ecosystems, are immensely resilient.
再强调一下，我认为这些系统，这些微生物生态系统是非常有韧性的。
We just cannot go too far down this path.
我们不能再在这条路上愈行愈远了。
I personally believe that sustained observation of our oceans and our planet
我个人认为，持续观察我们的海洋和星球
is the moral imperative for our generation of scientists.
是我们这一代科学家的道德使命。
We are bearing witness to the changes that are being inflicted upon our natural communities,
我们正在见证施加在自然群落上的变化，
and by doing so, it provides us the opportunity to adapt and enact global change, if we're willing.
通过持续观测，我们就有机会去应对并实施全球性的改变，如果我们愿意的话。
So the solutions to these problems are multitiered.
这些问题的解决方案涉及多个层面。
It involves a portfolio of solutions, local change,
它涉及到解决方案的组合、地区性的变化，
but all the way up to voting for people who will protect our environment on a global scale.
直到人们投票给愿意在全球范围内保护我们环境的人。
Let's bring it back to the love.
让我们回到爱的话题上。
Microbes matter. These organisms are small, abundant, ancient, and they are critical to sustaining our population and our planet.
微生物很重要。这些生物很小，而且丰富、古老，它们对维持人类的生存和星球的宜居至关重要。
Yet we are on track to double our carbon dioxide emissions in the next 50 years,
然而照这样下去，我们有可能在未来50年内让二氧化碳排放量翻倍，
so the analogy that I use for that is like we are eating like we're still in our 20s, assuming there will be no consequences
所以我会打比方说，我们还在胡吃海喝，仿佛自己还是二十多岁，觉得不会有任何后果，
but I'm a woman in her 40s, I know there are consequences for my fuel consumption. Right?
但我是个40多岁的女人，我很清楚摄入过多热量会带来什么后果，对吧？
These oceans are very much alive. These ecosystems have not collapsed.
这些海洋充满生机。这些生态系统尚未崩溃。
Well, except for the Arctic, we can talk about that.
不过，北极就另当别论了。
But the sustained observations that I've shared with you today, the work of generations of scientists,
但是我今天与大家分享的长期观察，以及几代科学家的工作，
are pointing us to take better care of our oceans and to nurture the microbes that sustain us.
都在指出我们应该更好地照顾我们的海洋，保护好维持我们生命的微生物。
And on that note, I want to end with a quote from one of my heroes, Jane Lubchenco. And this slide is appropriate.
此时此刻，我想以我心中的一位英雄，简·卢布琴科的话作为结尾。这句话搭配这张幻灯片再合适不过了。
Jane has said that the oceans are not too big to fail, nor are they too big to fix, but the oceans are too big to ignore. Thank you.
简曾说过，海洋不会因为太大而失灵，也不会因为太大而无法修复，但是海洋太大了，所以它不容忽视。谢谢各位。
