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I'm here, because I've spent far too many nights lying awake, worrying and wondering who wins in the end.
我在这里是因为在太多无眠的夜晚，我都在担心与思考究竟谁会胜出。
Is it humans or is it robots?
是人类还是机器人？
You see, as a technology strategist, my job involves behavior change: understanding why and how people adopt new technologies.
你们知道，我是一名技术分析师，我研究行为改变：了解人们为何以及如何采取新技术。
And that means I'm really frustrated that I know I won't live to see how this all ends up.
这一点让我很沮丧，因为我知道我无法活到看到这一切的结果的那一天。
And in fact, if the youngest person watching this is 14 and the oldest, a robust 99,
事实上，如果最年轻的观众是14岁，最年长的观众是99岁，身体强健，
then together, our collective consciousnesses span just 185 years.
我们的集体意识能级只有185年。
That is a myopic pinprick of time when you think of the evolution and the story of life on this planet.
当你思考地球上生命的进化和故事，那只是时间的一个小节点。
Turns out we're all in the cheap seats and none of us will live to see how it all pans out.
事实证明，我们都坐在廉价座位上，谁也无法看到它究竟会怎样。
So at my company, we wanted a way around this.
所以在我的公司，我们想要找到方法。
We wanted to see if there was a way to cantilever out, beyond our fixed temporal vantage point, to get a sense of how it all shakes up.
我们想知道是否有一种方法可以超越目前既定的观点，了解所有情况的变化。
And to do this, we conducted a study amongst 1,200 Americans representative of the US census,
为此，我们在美国人口普查中抽取1200名代表进行了一项该研究，
in which we asked a battery of attitudinal questions around robotics and AI
我们询问了一连串关于机器人和人工智能的问题，
and also captured behavioral ones around technology adoption.
也捕捉了关于技术采用的行为问题。
We had a big study so that we could analyze differences in gender and generations,
我们进行了大量研究，来分析性别和不同年代的差异，
between religious and political beliefs, even job function and personality trait.
宗教和政治信仰的差异，甚至是工作职能和性格特征的差异。
It is a fascinating, time-bound time capsule of our human frailty in this predawn of the robotic era.
这是一个有趣的、有时限的时光胶囊，它是关于机器人时代来临前的黎明阶段的人类弱点。
And I have five minutes to tell you about it.
我用五分钟给大家介绍一下。
The first thing you should know is that we brainstormed a list of scenarios of current and potential AI robotics.
你们应该知道的第一件事，就是我们集体讨论并列出当前和未来人工智能机器人的场景。
They ran the spectrum from the mundane, so, a robot house cleaner, anyone?
他们进入普通人的生活，所以，一个机器人清洁工，有人用过吗？
Through to the mischievous, the idea of a robot pet sitter, or maybe a robot lawyer, or maybe a sex partner.
再到一些恶作剧想法，机器人宠物保姆，或者可能是一个机器人律师，或者可能是一个机器人性伴侣。
Through to the downright macabre, the idea of being a cyborg, blending human and robot,
再到一些彻头彻尾的骇人听闻的想法，半机器人，融合了人与机器人，
or uploading your brain so it could live on after your death.
或者上传你的大脑，以便死后大脑可以继续活者。
And we plotted people's comfort levels with these various scenarios.
我们绘制了人们在不同情景下的舒适度。
There were actually 31 in the study, but for ease, I'm going to show you just a few of them here.
事实上，研究中有31个情景，但为简便起见，我仅给大家看其中几个。
The first thing you'll notice, of course, is the sea of red.
你首先会注意到的，当然，是一片红色的海洋。
America is very uncomfortable with this stuff.
美国对此感到很不舒适。
That's why we call it the discomfort index, not the comfort index.
这就是为什么我们称其为不舒适指数，而非舒适指数。
There were only two things the majority of America is OK with.
只有两个是大多数美国人可以接受的。
And that's the idea of a robot AI house cleaner and a robot AI package deliverer,
那就是房屋打扫机器人和包裹快递智能机器人，
so Dyson and Amazon, you guys should talk. There's an opportunity there.
所以戴森和亚马逊，你们应该谈谈。这里有商机。
It seems we're ready to off-load our chores to our robot friends.
看起来我们已经准备好将琐事转交给我们的机器人朋友了。
We're kind of definitely on the fence when it comes to services, so robot AI lawyer or a financial adviser, maybe.
在服务方面，我们肯定保持观望，所以机器人律师或者机器人财务顾问是有可能的。
But we're firmly closed to the idea of robot care, whether it be a nurse, a doctor, child care.
但是对于机器人护理，无论是机器人护士，还是医生，儿童保育，我们是完全不接受的。
So from this, you'd go, "It's OK, Lucy, you know what? Go back to sleep, stop worrying, the humans win in the end."
从这一点你就能得出结论：“没事，露西，你知道吗？去睡吧，不要担心了，人类最终会胜出的。”
But actually not so fast.
但实际上这么说还为时尚早。
If you look at my data very closely, you can see we're more vulnerable than we think. AI has a branding problem.
如果你仔细看我的数据，你可以发现我们比想象的要脆弱得多。人工智能存在品牌问题。
So of those folks who said that they would absolutely reject the idea of a personal assistant,
所以那些说他们会完全拒绝机器人私人助理的人中，
45 percent of them had, in fact, one in their pockets, in terms of a device with Alexa, Google or Siri.
事实上有45%的人有一个Alexa Google或者Siri的设备。
One in five of those who were against the idea of AI matchmaking had of course, you guessed it, done online dating.
正如你猜想的那样，五分之一的反对人工智能配对的人进行过在线约会。
And 80 percent of those of us who refuse the idea of boarding an autonomous plane with a pilot backup had in fact,
在那些拒绝乘坐飞行员后备的自动驾驶飞机的人中，有80%的人，
just like me to get here to Vancouver, flown commercial.
像我一样，为了工作飞来温哥华。
Lest you think everybody was scared, though, here are the marvelous folk in the middle.
但是，不要认为所有人都害怕，有一些出色的中间人士。
These are the neutrals. These are people for whom you say, "OK, robot friend," and they're like, "Hm, robot friend. Maybe."
他们是中立的。这些人你会说：“好吧，机器人朋友，”他们就像：“恩，机器人朋友，也许可以。”
Or, "AI pet," and they go, "Never say never."
或者“机器人宠物”，他们会说，“永不放弃。”
And as any decent political operative knows, flipping the ambivalent middle can change the game.
正如任何体面的政治活动家所知，翻转矛盾的中间立场可以改变整个游戏。
Another reason I know we're vulnerable is men -- I'm sorry, but men, you are twice as likely than women to believe that
另外一个人类脆弱的原因就是男性，对不起，但是就是男性，你们比女人多两倍的可能性会认为，
getting into an autonomous car is a good idea, that uploading your brain for posterity is fun,
无人驾驶汽车是个好主意，上传大脑维持生存生命很有趣，
and two and a half times more likely to believe that becoming a cyborg is cool, and for this, I blame Hollywood.
比女人高出2.5倍的可能性认为成为半机器人很酷，我要把这归因于好莱坞。
And this is where I want you to look around the theater and know that one in four men are OK with the idea of sex with a robot.
我希望你环顾影院时知道，其中四分之一的男人都同意与机器人做爱。
That goes up to 44 percent of millennial men compared to just one in 10 women,
与女性的10%相比，千禧一代男性的这一比例上升至44%，
which I think puts a whole new twist on the complaint of mechanical sex.
我认为这对抱怨机械性行为提出了全新的看法。
Even more astounding than that though, to be honest, is this behavioral difference.
坦白说，比这更令人震惊的是行为差异。
So here we have people who have a device with a voice assistant in it,
因此，在这里，有人的设备中带有语音助手，
so a smart speaker, a home hub or a smart phone, versus those who don't.
智能扬声器、家庭集线器或智能手机，还有一些没有语音助手的设备。
And you can see from this graph that the Trojan horse is already in our living room.
你可以从该图中看到特洛伊木马已经在我们的客厅中。
And as these devices proliferate and our collective defenses soften, we all see how it can end.
随着这些设备激增，我们的集体防御能力减弱，我们都看到了它如何终结。
In fact, this may be as good a time as any to admit I did take my Alexa Dot on vacation with me.
实际上，这可能是一个好机会，我承认我带我的Alexa Dot一起度假。
Final finding I have time for is generational. So look at the difference just three generations make.
我把最后的时间留给了年代差异。请看一下三代人之间的区别。
This is the leap from silent to boomer to millennial.
这是从沉默一代、到婴儿潮再到千禧年的飞跃。
And what's more fascinating than this is if you extrapolate this out, the same rate of change, just the same pace,
更有趣的是，如果以相同的变化率、相同的速度推断出这个结果，
not the accelerated one I actually believe will be the case, the same pace,
而不是加速，我实际上认为速度会加快，而是以同样的速度，
then it is eight generations away when we hear every single American thinking the majority of these things here are normal.
那么八代人之后，我们会听到每个美国人都会认为这些大都很平常。
So the year 2222 is an astounding place where everything here is mainstream.
因此2222年将令人震惊，这里的一切都变成主流。
And lest you needed any more convincing, here is the generation's "excitement level with AI."
为了让您进一步被说服，这是这一代人对人工智能的兴奋程度。
So not surprisingly, the youngest of us are more excited.
因此，不出意料，我们最小的孩子最兴奋。
But, and possibly the most paradoxical finding of my career,
但是这可能是我职业生涯中最矛盾的发现，
when I asked these people my 3am question, "Who wins in the end?" Guess what.
当我问这些人我凌晨3点的问题时，“到底谁会赢？”猜一下结果。
The more excited you are about AI and robotics, the more likely you are to say it's the robots.
你对AI和机器人技术越兴奋，就越有可能说是机器人。
And I don't think we need a neural net running pattern-recognition software to see where this is all headed.
而且我认为我们不需要一个神经网络运行模式识别软件来了解其发展方向。
We are the proverbial frogs in boiling water.
正如谚语所说，我们是沸水煮青蛙。
So if the robots at TED2222 are watching this for posterity,
因此，如果TED2222上的机器人在为后代看这个视频，
could you send a cyborg, dig me up and tell me if I was right? Thank you.
能不能派一个半机器人把我挖出来，告诉我，我说的是否正确？谢谢。
