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Now, that’s a fallacy because it’s already spent.
这是个谬论，因为已经花费了时间和金钱。
What really matters is whether the next minute or the next dollar or the next bit of effort that you put into that project is worthwhile.
真正重要的是，考虑你在这个项目中接下来投入的每一分钟、每一美元以及每一点努力是否值得。
So, I would say that’s a very strong force that stops us from quitting.
我想说，这是阻止我们放弃的一个非常强大的力量。
But interestingly on the other side of things, I would say that loss aversion also really stops us from quitting.
但有趣的是，另一方面，我想说，损失厌恶也确实阻止了我们放弃。
So, it’s a little bit weird because loss aversion has to do with a problem with starting things in the sense that we focus on the potential losses that are associated with the decision that we might make, not thinking about what the expected value is or what the overall return on investment is.
这有点奇怪，因为损失厌恶与一开始就关注潜在损失的问题有关，潜在损失与我们可能做出的决定相关，而没有考虑预期价值，没有考虑总体投资回报是多少。
You might ask, “Well, what does that have to do with quitting?”
你可能会问: “嗯，这和放弃有什么关系?”
Well, when you’re quitting something, you’re not just quitting, you’re going to start something new.
当你放弃某件事的时候，你不仅仅是放弃，你将要开始新的事情。
And so, if we have an aversion to starting things where we imagine the ways in which they might not work out, this will actually stop us from starting new things, which in turn stops us from quitting.
如果我们很厌恶开始一件事，我们想象着这件事可能不会成功，这实际上会阻止我们开始新的事情，进而也会阻止我们放弃。
So, a simple example of that is you’ll hear people when they’re in a job that they hate, say things like, “Well, I don’t want to quit because what if I take a new job and I hate that one and it’s not good?”
举个简单的例子，当人们从事他们讨厌的工作时，你会听到他们会说，“嗯，我不想辞职，因为如果我找了一份新工作，我讨厌那份工作，而且那份工作也不好怎么办?”
The devil is better than the devil you don’t.
宁可跟熟悉的魔鬼打交道。
Right. And that’s really the loss aversion speaking, right?
对。这就是损失厌恶，对吧?
It’s like, “Well, I know I’m going to be miserable in this job, but if I start something new, what if I’m miserable in that as well?”
好比，“嗯，我知道我在这份工作中会很痛苦，但如果我开始新的工作，如果我在新的工作里也觉得痛苦呢?”
Never mind the fact that you have a much higher probability of being happy in the new endeavor than the one that you’re sticking to.
不要在意这样一个事实: 你在新的事业中获得快乐的可能性比你坚持的事业要大得多。
And just for people who are thinking, “Well, don’t you have loss aversion for the things that you’re already doing?”
有些人可能会想：“嗯，你对已经在做的事情难道就没有损失厌恶吗？”
The answer is not as much. It’s asymmetric.
答案是没有那么多。并不对等。
Because the status quo, whatever it is that we’re sticking to, we don’t think about that as starting something new every day. Even though in reality it is.
因为现状是，不管我们坚持的是什么，我们都不会考虑每天开启新事物。尽管现实确实如此。
So, in some sense, every day that you do it, you’re starting anew, but we just don’t process it that way.
从某种意义上说，你每天都在开启新事物，你都在重新开始，但我们只是没有那样处理。
So, where loss aversion really gets recruited is in the thought about quitting something to start something new.
损失厌恶真正被引入之时，也是考虑放弃某件事、开始新事物之时。
So, you can see where these two biases work together in a really malign way, which is, I don’t want to stop something for fear.
你可以看到这两种偏见以一种有害的方式共同作用，这种方式就是，我不想因为恐惧而停止某事。
I’ve wasted everything I already put into it and I don’t want to start something new because I’m worried about maybe that won’t work out.
我已经浪费了我已经投入的一切，我不想开始新的东西，因为我担心这可能不会成功。
Yeah. It seems like that would be equally prominent when businesses are thinking about projects and strategies to pursue.
是。当企业考虑要执行项目和战略时，这个问题似乎同样很突出。
Are there any particular cognitive biases that you see more often in organizational settings?
在机构环境中，有什么特别常见的认知偏见吗?
One of the biggest things that I see is opportunity cost neglect.
我看到的最大的问题之一是机会成本被忽视。
We don’t tend to take into account the gains that might be associated with another course of action in comparison to the thing that we’re already doing.
我们往往不会考虑，相较于我们在做的事情，另一种行动可能带来的收益。
So, if you have resources that are pursuing a particular project, those are resources that can’t pursue other projects.
如果你拥有执行一个特定项目的资源，那么，这些资源就不能用于执行其他项目。
