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And any other project that you might pursue has losses and gains associated with it.
你可能从事的任何其他项目都有相应的得与失。
We’re almost myopic in the sense that we really can’t even see the other opportunities that are available to us and that causes us to neglect the gains that might be associated with those other opportunities.
从某种意义上说，我们几乎是短视的，我们甚至看不到我们可以获得的其他机会，这导致我们忽视了可能与其他机会相关的收益。
One of the places that I see this really strongly separate and apart from things like strategic initiatives is in employment decisions.
除了战略举措外，我看到的一个非常不同的地方就是就业决策。
So, people will have underperformers in a job.
人们在工作中会遇到表现不佳的人。
What I see is, again, people really focusing on, “Well, what if I fire them and I don’t hire someone who’s good into that new role?”
我再次看见的是，人们真正关注的是，“嗯，如果我解雇了老员工，而我雇佣不到一个能胜任新职位的人怎么办?”
What they neglect is the gains.
他们忽视的是收益。
One of the things that I try to do with them is I say, “Well, imagine that you did let this person go and there was nobody in the role? Would it be better or worse?”
我试着和他们做的一件事是，我说，“嗯，想象一下，你让这个人走了，这个职位上没有人? 情况是更好还是更糟?”
We work through things like, “Well, they’re having a really negative impact on the team, so if they weren’t there, I think that the culture of the team would be healthier.”
我们会这样考虑问题: “嗯，他们对团队产生了负面影响，如果他们不在这个岗位，我认为团队的文化会更健康。”
Generally the answer is it would actually be better not to have anybody in the role.
一般来说，答案是不要让任何人担任这个职位，这样会更好。
And then we really try to focus on what’s the probability that somebody new will be better than the person that you currently have, to try to get them to stop focusing on the possibility of loss and start focusing on the gains that might be associated with other options.
我们会努力关注新员工有没有可能比现有员工更优秀，努力让他们不再关注损失，而开始关注可能与其他选择相关的收益。
And this generally helps to get them to those decisions more quickly, whether it’s about employment or deciding to stop pursuing a sales lead or shutting down a strategic initiative.
这通常有助于他们更快地做出决定，无论是关于就业，还是决定停止寻找销售线索、关闭战略计划。
I know that the first step in all of this is understanding that these biases trying to recognize when they come up, but you make a really good point in the book that there is a difference between recognizing they exist and preventing them from affecting you.
我知道这一切的第一步是理解这些偏见，试图在它们出现时识别出来，但你在书中提出了一个很好的观点，即识别偏见的存在与防止偏见影响你之间是有区别的。
So, you’re absolutely right, Alison. I think that we have the intuition that once we know about these types of biases that we won’t do them.
你说得对，艾莉森。我认为我们有一种直觉，一旦我们知道了这些类型的偏见，我们就不会去做这些事。
So, if I explain really clearly the sunk cost policy to you and I say, “Look, if you buy a stock at 50 and it’s trading at 40, you’re more likely to hold that stock than in comparison to whether you would buy that stock at 40.”
我为你们解释沉没成本策略，我说，“瞧，如果你50美元买了一只股票，而交易价格是40美元，你更有可能持有这只股票，而不是在40美元价格时买入。”
So, in other words, if you wouldn’t buy the stock at 40, you shouldn’t hold it just because you happen to buy it at 50.
换句话说，如果你购买股票时不是40美元，你就不会持股，因为你碰巧买它时是50美元。
So now I’ve told you that and I’m sure, Alison, that you have the intuition. Well, okay, so now I know that so I won’t do it anymore.
现在我已经告诉你了，我相信，艾莉森，你已经有了直觉。好吧，现在我知道了，所以我不会再这么做了。
Right. But you tell a really poignant story in the book about a researcher who knew all of it.
对。但你在书中讲述了一个了解这一切的研究员的悲惨故事。
