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10Gambler’s Fallacy
The Gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality, they are not. Certain probabilities, such as getting a heads when you flip a (fair) coin, are always the same. The probability of getting a heads is 50%, it does not matter if you’ve gotten tails the last 10 flips. Thinking that theprobabilities have changed is a common bias, especially when gambling. For example, I am playing roulette. The last four spins have landed on black, it has to be red this time right? Wrong! The probability of landing on red is still 47.37% (18 red spots divided by 38 total spots). This may sound obvious, but this bias has caused many a gambler to lose money thinking theprobabilities have changed.
10赌徒的谬论
赌徒的谬论是指过去发生的事情会影响未来事件的发生，但是事实上，不是这样的。举个例子，当你投一枚正常的硬币时，出现头像的概率总是50%，这些固定的概率不会因为连续出现了10次背面而改变。认为这些会改变是一种常见的偏见，尤其是在赌博的时候。当我在玩赌博轮的时候，最后4个数字全是黑的，那么下次会是红的？错！出现红的概率还是47.37％（18个红区和38个黑区）。这个听起来明显，但是未来会改变的偏见已经让很多赌徒输钱了。
